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Australia look set to face their worst nightmare in the first Ashes Test – a moist, seaming pitch.
This appears likely considering the state of past surfaces at Edgbaston, combined with Australia’s floundering efforts on a damp Southampton deck, and the fact England’s two quickest bowlers are injured.
The unavailability of in-form express bowlers Jofra Archer and Mark Wood means the hosts will field a gentle-paced attack at a venue where Australia were rolled for 130 on Day 1 in the last Ashes.
The likes of James Anderson, Chris Woakes, Stuart Broad and Sam Curran are far more dangerous on seaming decks so that’s just what they’ll get for the first Test.
England have openly admitted in the past that they ask their home curators to prepare pitches which favour them.
After watching Australia’s batsmen crumble on a juicy surface this week, the home side will be in no doubt as to the kind of Edgbaston pitch that will best suit them.
Australia’s inability to adapt to seaming decks has cruelled them in the past four Ashes in the UK.
England’s James Anderson (AAP Image/David Moir)
In the 2015 series, Australia obliterated England on the two pitches which were fine for batting (Lord’s and The Oval), but were hammered on the three surfaces that offered more help to the bowlers (Edgbaston, Trent Bridge and Cardiff).
That series was decided across the third and fourth matches, which featured lively Day 1 pitches. Australia were humiliated on the opening day of both, rolled for 136 at Edgbaston and then 60 at Trent Bridge.
By the time they flogged England by an innings and 46 runs in the fifth Test, on a much drier surface, the damage had already been done.
Once again, this series will rest on whether Australia’s batsmen can overcome seaming conditions. The signs are not good so far.
Incredibly, 17 wickets fell on the first day of Australia’s intra-squad match.
So dire were the returns that Marnus Labuschagne’s 41 was suddenly being painted as a selection-earning knock. That’s because 12 of the other Aussies who batted in the top seven for their side couldn’t even reach 20.
Even established stars Steve Smith (9) and David Warner (6) failed. That pair will carry Australia’s batting once more. This time, though, they will do so having not played a first-class match for 16 months.
The chances are low of both Smith and Warner immediately flourishing on lively decks, yet they may need to after the abomination that was the first day at Southampton.
England’s quicks must have been giddy upon seeing this scorecard. They know that on juiced-up pitches they can trample whatever batting line-up the tourists pick.
Can Davey claw back some respectability by taking on Rabada? (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
The home batsmen would have had a different reaction altogether. They understand they face a stiff challenge against an Australian squad brimming with gifted and experienced quicks.
England laboured with the bat over their past three home series against Australia. In 2009, they had only one batsman who averaged 35 or more (from a minimum of three Tests played).
In 2013, they had just one batsman who averaged 40 or more, with the likes of Alastair Cook, Jonathan Trott, Jonny Bairstow and Matt Prior all averaging in the 20s.
Then in 2015, England again had only one batsman who averaged 40-plus, while Ian Bell, Ben Stokes, Jos Buttler, Jonny Bairstow and Adam Lyth all had shocking series with the willow.
In each of those three series, the English were saved by their skilful bowlers and the incompetence of the visiting batsmen.
With the team now boasting only one proven Test batsman, Joe Root, it is hard to see how they will consistently construct good totals. They might not have to though – it may end up being a case of just scoring a bit more than whatever the fragile Aussie unit cobbles together.
With both sides carrying weak batting line-ups – England’s top six is even worse than Australia’s – this shapes as a low-scoring series.