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All the conditions were right for an upset as Argentina hosted the All Blacks in Buenos Aires last weekend.
But, not for the first time, the moment appeared too big for the Pumas, as New Zealand held them out to extend their unbeaten run against the South Americans to 29.
The Kiwis’ only blemish was a draw, in just their second official meeting, way back in 1985.
In fact, New Zealand and Argentina had met four times prior to that, twice in Buenos Aires in 1976 and twice in New Zealand three years later. The All Blacks took the lot, but the NZRFU did not award caps for any of them.
In 1985, the All Blacks returned to Argentina after their South African tour was cancelled, and won the first test comfortably enough, 33-20. But they were unable to shake-off the Pumas in the second, as legendary No.10 Hugo Porta cancelled out four All Blacks tries with four penalties and three drop-goals.
They finished on attack too, hulking No.8 Ernest Ure surging to the New Zealand line, but he was adjudged to have knocked on and the tourists escaped with the draw.
In 2001 there was an equally heartbreaking finish for Argentina, playing in front of 70,000 fans at the River Plate Stadium. They led 20-17 with time up on the clock, and flyhalf Felipe Contepomi probably only needed to find touch with his clearing kick to end the game.
But he failed to do so and All Blacks fullback Ben Blair led a counterattack which culminated in the winning try to No.8 Scott Robertson (current coach of the Crusaders).
The Pumas’ third golden opportunity came five years later, with an attacking lineout while trailing by six at the end of their encounter in Buenos Aires. And once again, the Kiwis held them out.
So last weekend’s result can probably be regarded as the All Blacks’ fourth narrow escape. The unbeaten run is now poised to overtake their 31-game streak against Scotland, which includes two draws.
Of course, victory over the New Zealand is rugby’s Everest, regardless of the circumstances. The three-time World Champions have produced more stunning escape acts than Houdini and have only lost to six nations in 116 years of Test rugby.
Steve Hansen (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
New Zealand aside, the most difficult team to beat in international rugby would appear to be England, who have only lost to seven other countries – including Argentina on four occasions.
By far their longest sequence is 25 straight wins against Italy.
The Azzurri got closest in their three home encounters between 2008 and 2012 but were unable to finish the job. They certainly gave England a fright at Twickenham a couple of years ago, with some unorthodox tactics at the ruck. The home team were suitably flummoxed – and only led by two points with 15 minutes remaining – but they finished strongly for a 36-15 win.
Up until a few years ago, South Africa would have certainly figured in this discussion, having only lost to seven nations as well. But since 2015, Argentina, Japan and Italy can all be added to that list.
Even Wales had to wait until 1999 for their first victory over the Springboks.
Perhaps the longest winning runs in international rugby history belong to Argentina, however. They have now beaten Uruguay in 40 straight games and Chile in 38.
It is true they have dropped a few to Uruguay as the Argentina XV, most recently in this year’s Nations Cup, though none in official Tests.
Another sequence of a slightly more general variety is Georgia’s failure to collect a tier-one scalp after 19 tests against SANZAAR and Six Nations opposition.
They came closest against Ireland at the 2007 World Cup, spending the last 10 minutes in attack while 14-10 down. But that’s how it ended, and 12 years on the Lelos remain the only tier-two team not to have beaten a top-tier opponent.
They will have their first opportunity to do so in a home game next month, when they face Scotland at Tbilisi.
The good news is that once the psychological barrier is broken it appears to get easier. Wales have now made a habit of beating the Springboks, while Argentina have beaten them on two further occasions.
And Ireland, having waited 28 games and 111 years for their first victory over the All Blacks, have prevailed in two of their last three encounters.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.