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Jofra Archer is a strong chance to make his Ashes debut on Thursday after last night being named in England’s 14-man squad for the first Test.
Archer has made a swift recovery from a left side strain he suffered in the World Cup final after only 11 days ago being ruled out of the Ashes opener by the English media.
The express quick is not guaranteed to play against Australia at Edgbaston as England have six fast bowlers in their squad. But I expect Archer to get the nod as England’s third specialist quick, alongside James Anderson and Chris Woakes, who would be the first two seamers picked by England in home conditions.
I predict this is how England will line up: Jason Roy, Rory Burns, Joe Denly, Joe Root, Jos Buttler, Ben Stokes, Jonny Bairstow (wicketkeeper), Moeen Ali, Chris Woakes, Jofra Archer and James Anderson.
That leaves Stuart Broad, Sam Curran and Olly Stone as the reserve members of the squad.
(Photo by Gareth Copley-IDI/IDI via Getty Images)
England have dropped Jack Leach, despite the left-arm spinner having a strong start to his Test career with 20 wickets at 26.
Australia’s batsmen may feel relieved by that choice. A succession of left-arm orthodox spinners have prospered against Australia in recent years, with South Africa’s Keshav Maharaj, India’s Ravindra Jadeja and Sri Lanka’s Rangana Herath all causing them trouble.
On the other hand, Australia’s batsmen have flayed Moeen Ali, the sole spinner in England’s squad. Australia made the mistake of being too aggressive against Moeen in his first Ashes Test in Cardiff four years ago, gifting him several wickets with risky shots.
Since then, however, they have made a point of just milking Moeen. As a result, the off-spinner has averaged a whopping 83 with the ball in his past nine Tests against Australia.
England will, though, have a powerful four-pronged pace unit in the first Test. England’s all-time leading Test wicket-taker, James Anderson, picks himself.
Fellow right-arm swing bowler Chris Woakes is also a lock. The 30-year-old bowling all-rounder has a phenomenal Test record in the UK, where he averages 21 with the ball and 41 with the bat, and is coming off a second-innings haul of 6-17 against Ireland.
The third pace spot is a battle between Jofra Archer, veteran seamer Stuart Broad, young bowling all-rounder Sam Curran, and the sharp-paced Olly Stone.
It would be a major shock if Stone was picked ahead of Archer, Broad and Curran. Any of that latter trio are attractive prospects for the English selectors. Broad not only has 444 Test wickets to his name but also owns an excellent record at home against Australia, with 61 wickets at 26.
(AP Photo/Jon Super)
Curran, meanwhile, is the weakest bowler of this trio, due in part to having only just turned 21 years old. But he is a multi-skilled cricketer, averaging 32 with the bat in his first ten Tests, and has the advantage of being the only left-arm bowler in the squad.
Curran is also fresh from a high quality performance for the England Lions against Australia A, taking six wickets to go with scores of 50 and 56*. He followed that up with 3-28 in the Test against Ireland as well as scoring 55 runs for the match.
Then there’s World Cup star Archer. Like Curran he offers value with the bat, as evidenced by his batting average of 31 in first-class cricket.
What may earn Archer a Test debut ahead of Broad and Curran, though, is the variety he would offer England’s attack via his startling pace and fear factor.
In Anderson, Woakes and all-rounder Ben Stokes – a talented swing bowler – England may feel they already have enough control. They may think that Archer provides a distinct point of difference with his steepling bounce, searing yorkers and ability to hit 154 kilometres per hour.
Broad, Curran and Archer are all very good options for England. They can’t make a wrong choice, really. But it seems that the momentum is with Archer and England would love to boast a quick who can scare the Aussie batsmen, to complement the ones who can befuddle them with lateral movement.
The other possibility is that England may decide to field six bowling options, with Woakes moving up to bat at seven to allow one of Curran or Broad to join a bulging attack.
Whichever way England go, fans of pace bowling should be giddy over this first Ashes Test, which will feature a wide variety of very gifted quicks.