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Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders: NRL qualifying final preview, prediction

13th September, 2019
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13th September, 2019
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There are few tougher tasks in the NRL than heading to Melbourne for a finals game, but following a shock loss in the final week of the season, the Canberra Raiders will do just that as they tackle the Melbourne Storm in the first qualifying final.

However, if there is one side equipped to do some amazing in the Victorian capital, then it might just be Ricky Stuart’s green machine.

When the sides met in Melbourne just a month ago, it was the Raiders who came away with a stunning 22-18 victory over the Storm, making it even more unbelievable by fighting back from 18-blot.

That, however, is going to work one of two ways. Either it will give the Raiders confidence, or it will put the Storm into an explosive mood, where they could run up a cricket score against anyone, such is the strength of the side.

Melbourne have beaten just about every record they held this season. Four losses out of 24 games, that Raiders loss being their biggest of the lot, and a staggering for and against of 331 to finish with the minor premiership, six points clear at the top of the table.

It’s been a long time since a season this dominant has been seen, and for the most part, it doesn’t even feel like the Storm have been playing at top gear on a consistent basis.

On the other hand, the Raiders have been one of this season’s most surprising teams. While their optimistic fan group was expecting top eight, even they would have been stunned with a top-four finish before a ball had been kicked this season.

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Ricky Stuart, who is surely in line for coach of the season, has flipped his club on its head, taking a punt on some English forwards, forgotten fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Jack Wighton in the halves.

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

(Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)

It’s worked, and they finished in the top four, but they could have avoided travelling to Melbourne had they beaten the New Zealand Warriors at home last weekend.

In saying that, they rested six players from that game, so it’s hard to read too far into the result, given it’s a completely different team sheet for the men in green this week.

Still, they haven’t been perfect a times, and to get the better of the gritty Storm in a finals atmosphere on the road, they will absolutely need to be every little bit of perfect.

The other thing to note heading into this contest is that the Raiders have had major struggles against the Storm historically, despite their win not all that longer ago.

They have just won 12 games of 43 against the Victorian club in history, as well as none out of three in finals, which is hardly a surprise, given Melbourne don’t lose all that many finals.

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In saying that, they have had success at AAMI Park since it opened, winning four of nine games, which included coming within one of the biggest bombed tries of all time of winning in a 2016 final they played at the venue, falling 16-14 on that occasion in a result that could have sent them to the grand final.

Team news and squads

Melbourne Storm
In little surprise to anyone, the Storm have brought back Josh Addo-Carr, Cameron Munster and Brandon Smith into their regular positions after they were rested last week, leaving the Storm at full strength.

The only real question which was hanging over the Storm heading into the finals was which way they were going to go with their spine, after a late-season change saw Brodie Croft axed, Ryan Papenhuyzen handed the custodian jumper and Jahrome Hughes shifted to the halves.

Craig Bellamy, who for so long has avoided taking any and all risks, is going to roll exactly that way into the finals, with his new look spine accompanying the team who have been the best this season.

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen, 2. Suliasi Vunivalu, 3. Will Chambers, 4. Justin Olam, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Jahrome Hughes, 8. Jesse Bromwich, 9. Cameron Smith, 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona, 11. Felise Kaufusi, 12. Kenneath Bromwich, 13. Dale Finucane

Bench: 14. Brandon Smith, 15. Tui Kamikamica, 16. Max King, 17. Joe Stimson, 18. Curtis Scott, 19.Tino Faasuamaleaui, 20. Brodie Croft, 21. Tom Eisenhuth

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Canberra Raiders
The Raiders rested a mountain of players last week, all of whom will return for this crunch qualifying final. They were Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (fullback), Sia Soliola (prop), John Bateman (second-row), Joseph Tapine (lock), Joey Leilua (centre) and Jordan Rapana (wing).

John Bateman of the Raiders

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

Despite spending a chunk of the season in the centres, Nick Cotric is back on the wing for this finals game, and will have a huge job to do, as will Jordan Rapana for the Raiders as he returns.

They, like the Storm are virtually at full strength, although it could well be argued that Hudson Young was in their best 17. He has, however, been ruled out with suspension for last week’s eye gouge on Adam Pompey and will be hoping the Raiders go deep into the finals to minimise the amount of matches he has to miss at the beginning of 2020.

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, 2. Nick Cotric, 3. Jarrod Croker, 4. Joseph Leilua, 5. Jordan Rapana, 6. Jack Wighton, 7. Aidan Sezer, 8. Josh Papalii, 9. Josh Hodgson, 10. Sia Soliola, 11. John Bateman, 12. Elliott Whitehead, 13. Joseph Tapine

Bench: 14. Bailey Simonsson, 15. Dunmais Lui, 16. Corey Horsburgh, 17. Ryan Sutton, 18. Sam Williams, 19. Emre Guler, 20. Siliva Havili, 21. Hudson Young

Keys to the game

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Cameron Smith must control the Storm
Love him or hate him, Cameron Smith, the veteran of over 400 games, is still the smartest player in the NRL, and when it comes to winning games of footy, there are few who can get the job done like he can.

He has been a little up and down at times this season, but when he has been up, there is no one who can match him.

And his downs, to be flat, are not really downs. They are just little periods of play where he doesn’t completely dominate everyone and every moment of the contest.

Whether it’s his always on-song defence, his kicking game out of dummy half so constantly turning the forwards around, or his ability to create tries from nothing with bits of excellent vision, he is a player every club in the land would love to have running around for them.

He also finds himself fresher than before at this time of year without the burden of Origin, and that’s a scary thought for any footy team who he comes up against.

However, his role in controlling the side has become even more important in the last couple of weeks, thanks to the changes made by Craig Bellamy to the Melbourne spine.

With so much inexperience playing around him, and people who haven’t played in those positions all year, his role in directing traffic and making sure Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes pick the right options is absolutely vital, and will be even more so against this gritty Raiders outfit, who can defend the long haul.

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Cameron Smith

(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

How good can the Raiders kicking game be?
This could be the question that shapes the way this contest goes.

While we have just talked about how good Cameron Smith is kicking the footy, and the fact he will be joined by Camron Munster just makes it better, one of the Raiders very few problems at times this year has been their kicking game.

Jack Wighton and Aidan Sezer (or Sam Williams) have been strong when they have played, but not consistently, and there are times the kicking, both long and short, lacks the accuracy and clear decision making needed in high-pressure situations.

There is no doubt Wighton and Sezer have the ability to get the job done with a bit of help out of dummy half from Josh Hodgson, who will be in the battle of his life, but they need to be near perfect against the Storm, particularly from long range.

There are going to be times when the Raiders are on the back foot – that’s just a given. It’s how they fight their way out of that which will determine if they are going to win or not, and a big part of that is the kicking and direction they get from their six and seven.

The forwards will have the final say
The battle of the middle third in this game shapes as an intriguing one.

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The Storm are long thought to have the best forward pack in the game, and when they are on, there is nearly no doubting that.

There are some names who you simply must take seriously – Jesse Bromwich, Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Dale Finucane up the middle, joined by Australian representative Felise Kaufusi on the edge.

They have pack which is able to wrestle, dominate the ruck and bend the advantage line on almost every occasion, making it ridiculously hard for their opposition to stay in the game through a lack of territory.

But this Raiders side have proven how to beat the Storm. Get the ball out wide early, play an aggressive brand of rugby league and never be afraid to take an opportunity.

While that directly has nothing to do with the forwards, indirectly it does, because the only way to get a successful spread out wide, or plays through the halves, is to have the forwards rolling, get a quick ruck speed and good line speed all game long.

The Raiders pack is agile and versatile enough to get that fast, direct style of rugby league going, but they need to be near on perfect.

Josh Papalii runs the ball.

(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

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Prediction

The Raiders know how to win in Melbourne, and while their long-term record isn’t good, and they have never beaten them in the finals, they have caused some scares over the years.

This is going to be a lot closer than some have been saying, even if the Storm do turn up in a mood to teach the Raiders a lesson, which they well could.

Sports opinion delivered daily 

   

The new Raiders, the ones who enjoy rolling up the sleeves and defending, and getting into the grind of a game, aren’t going to go away without a huge fight, but just like in 2016, they will come up just, only just, short of the mark.

Storm by 4.

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What you need to know about the game

Date: Saturday, September 14
Kick-off: 5:40pm (AEST)
Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne, Victoria
TV: Live, Fox League 502, Channel 9
Online: Live, Foxtel App, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, 9Now, NRL Digital Pass
Overall record: Played 43, Storm 31, Raiders 12
Last meeting: Round 22, 2019 – Storm 18 defeated by Raider 22
Last five: Storm 4, Raiders 1
Record in finals: Played 3, Storm 3, Raiders 0
Record at venue: Played 9, Storm 5, Raiders 4
Referees: Ashley Klein, Chris Sutton

Don’t forget to join us here on The Roar from 5:25pm (AEST) on Saturday for our live coverage and highlights of the game.

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