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2019 AFL grand final: Your ultimate preview to the big game

Roar Guru
24th September, 2019
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Roar Guru
24th September, 2019
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And then there were two.

After 198 regular season matches, the distribution of 1,188 Brownlow Medal votes and eight finals matches, the premiership race is down to just two teams and it will be left to Richmond and the GWS Giants to fight it out for the ultimate prize at the MCG this Saturday afternoon.

The Tigers are back on the big stage only two years after their most recent premiership, which they won by thrashing the Adelaide Crows by 48 points in the 2017 decider.

They also return after being humbled by Collingwood in the preliminary final last year, having finished the 2018 season as minor premiers.

Their 2019 season got off to a rather rocky start when they lost 200-gamer and fullback Alex Rance to a season-ending knee injury against Carlton in the season opener back on March 21.

They then lost their next two games, to the Pies and the Giants, leaving them in 14th place on the ladder after Round 3.

It was in the Round 3 loss to the Giants in Sydney where frustration got the better of Dustin Martin, who was heavily tagged by Matt de Boer and copped a one-game suspension for striking Adam Kennedy, thus rendering him ineligible for the Brownlow Medal.

Many thought that, with the absence of Rance, who’d been a multiple All Australian this decade, and the poor start to the season, the Tigers would struggle in 2019.

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Alex Rance after tearing his ACL

Alex Rance. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

However, a week later, without Martin, Jack Riewoldt or Trent Cotchin, the latter two injured, they then pulled off a win for the ages when they defeated Port Adelaide by seven points at the Oval, with Shane Edwards acting as captain.

The win was highlighted by a best-on-ground performance by Dylan Grimes, who marshaled the Tigers’ backline for the balance of the season in Rance’s absence.

After seemingly starting to get their season back on track, three straight losses going into the Round 14 bye, including those to non-finalists North Melbourne and the Adelaide Crows, left them in ninth place on the ladder with a 7-6 record.

But they would not lose again for the rest of the regular season, racking up nine straight wins to finish third on the ladder, behind the Geelong Cats and Brisbane Lions on percentage.

Wins over the Lions and Cats by 47 and 19 points in their respective qualifying and preliminary finals then saw the Tigers qualify for their 14th grand final, which will be the second under the coaching of Damien Hardwick, for whom this is his tenth season as Richmond coach.

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From the side that defeated the Cats last Friday night, only five players – Liam Baker, Shai Bolton, Tom Lynch, Jayden Short and Ivan Soldo – were not part of the side that was victorious on grand final day in 2017.

This means that up to 17 players have the chance to become dual Richmond premiership-winning players, though Nathan Broad and Jack Graham are both in doubt after suffering concussion and a dislocated shoulder respectively in their win over the Cats.

And after the furore over the 2017 grand final, in which the Tigers were forced to wear their clash jumper (because the Adelaide Crows, as the higher-ranked team, were permitted to wear their home guernsey), it’s expected they will don their full home kit this Saturday.

Standing in their way of a 12th premiership are the GWS Giants, who after just eight seasons in the AFL will be playing off in the big dance for the first time in their history.

GWS and Richmond are this year’s AFL grand finalists. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Going into this season, it appeared as though the club’s premiership window was about to shut, having lost several key players including Dylan Shiel and Tom Scully to other clubs during the off-season.

However, the Giants were able to make a massive statement in Round 1, thrashing Essendon at home by 72 points and making Shiel’s return to Giants Stadium one to forget.

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They then bore the brunt of an angry West Coast Eagles side in Perth in Round 2, but bounced back quickly by defeating Richmond at home in Round 3, the match best known for the shut-down role Matt de Boer performed on 2017 Brownlow Medallist Dustin Martin.

Their season then appeared to take a turn for the worse when co-captain Callan Ward suffered a serious knee injury against the Geelong Cats at Kardinia Park, which would rule him out for the remainder of the season.

But the Giants would lift, coming from 21 points down at half-time to score a stunning four-point victory.

They were in a strong position to finish inside the top four, but late-season back-to-back thrashings against Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs, in which the Giants failed to kick a second-half goal in either match, saw Leon Cameron’s coaching come under severe criticism.

If anything, it proved to be a turning point, as the Giants would win four straight matches, including three consecutive sudden death finals matches, to take their well-deserved place in the grand final.

After being overtaken by Ben Brown in the Coleman Medal race in Round 22, Jeremy Cameron, who’d missed the loss to the Bulldogs due to injury, kicked nine majors against the Gold Coast Suns in Round 23 to become the first Giant to top the regular season goalkicking charts.

Jeremy Cameron

Jeremy Cameron of the Giants celebrates kicking a goal. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

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Then, after a week off, the Giants would produce a 119-point turnaround to thrash the Bulldogs by 58 points at Giants Stadium, before travelling up to the Gabba and knocking off the Brisbane Lions by three points to keep their premiership dream alive.

The win over the Lions did not come without any controversy, with Toby Greene copping a one-game suspension for serious misconduct surrounding his treatment of Lachie Neale, and replays showing that Sam Reid threw the ball that led to Brent Daniels’ match-winning goal.

Finally, with Greene and Lachie Whitfield on the sidelines, the Giants outlasted Collingwood by four points in the preliminary final at the MCG, marking their first finals win at the ground and second consecutive away from Sydney.

You could only imagine the scenes as the club, for so long a target of criticism and ridicule over its inability to land a premiership with such a talented playing list, celebrated on the final siren as if they’d won the whole thing.

But now, coach Leon Cameron will want to ensure that his players remain fully focused on the task at hand as the possibility of a first premiership beckons.

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Greene is expected to return from his one-game suspension to take his place, while Whitfield and Stephen Coniglio will continue to put forward their cases to be able to play in Saturday’s big game.

For Coniglio, this would come over ten weeks after he suffered a knee injury in the opening minutes of the club’s Round 17 loss to Richmond at the MCG, which was supposed to rule him out for the rest of the year.

But after training strongly on Monday, and receiving the all-clear from the medicos, it will be up to him and the coach to determine whether he will play in the club’s biggest match of their short history.

Greene’s presence will be a massive boost for the Giants, having won over his club’s fans (but not that of the others’) for the way he plays the game – with a hard edge.

Greene, Coniglio, Jeremy Cameron, Phil Davis, Adam Kennedy, Adam Tomlinson and Callan Ward are the only seven survivors remaining from the inaugural side that lost its first match to the Sydney Swans in Round 1, 2012 that are still on the club’s list today.

Should Coniglio get the green light to play, then all except co-captain Ward, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in Round 4, will take their place in the grand final.

A shootout between the game’s two most recent Coleman Medallists – Cameron and Jack Riewoldt – is also a possibility, while fans will be watching in anticipation over the one-on-one battles between Tom Lynch and Phil Davis, as well as Dustin Martin and Matt de Boer.

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Jack Riewoldt of the Tigers celebrates kicking a goal during the 2017 AFL Grand Final match between the Adelaide Crows and the Richmond Tigers at Melbourne Cricket Ground on September 30, 2017 in Melbourne, Australia.

Jack Riewoldt celebrates a goal.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

As mentioned above, de Boer’s shut-down role on Martin played a huge role in the Giants’ 49-point victory back in Round 3, but there was no rematch in Round 17 (won by Richmond) as de Boer was sidelined with a shoulder injury.

For de Boer, his second grand final will come exactly six years after he was part of the Fremantle side that lost to Hawthorn by 15 points in 2013; as was the case then, he will again be part of a club featuring in the decider for the first time this Saturday.

From the Giants’ side that was victorious over Collingwood last Saturday night, only two players – Shane Mumford and Heath Shaw – have experienced premiership success before, with the Sydney Swans and Collingwood in 2012 and 2010 respectively.

For Shaw, it will be his fourth grand final, including the replay of 2010 in which his first-quarter smother on Nick Riewoldt played a huge role in the Pies’ 56-point victory.

Now that you’ve got the info, it’s time to crunch all the important numbers below.

Richmond vs GWS Giants

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Saturday, September 28
2:30pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground

This season
Round 3: GWS Giants 19.11 (125) defeated Richmond 10.16 (76) at Giants Stadium
Round 17: Richmond 13.16 (94) defeated GWS Giants 9.13 (67) at the MCG.

Last meeting in a final: Richmond 15.13 (103) defeated GWS Giants 9.13 (67) at the MCG in the second preliminary final, 2017.

The stats that matter
* This will be Richmond’s 24th grand final, and second in three years, while this will be the GWS Giants’ first. The Tigers are shooting for their 12th flag, while the Giants will be looking to equal Port Adelaide’s feat of winning the flag in their eighth season.

* This is the eighth consecutive grand final to pit a Victorian team up against a non-Victorian team. Of the seven previous such editions, only twice has the non-Victorian team been victorious (the Sydney Swans over Hawthorn in 2012 and the West Coast Eagles over Collingwood last year).

* From that same GWS side, only four players (Jeremy Cameron, Phil Davis, Adam Kennedy and Adam Tomlinson) remain from the side that played in their inaugural match against the Sydney Swans in Round 1, 2012. That figure increases to five with the return of Toby Greene from suspension.

* Mumford will be aiming to become the first player in AFL history to win two premiership medallions with two teams from the same non-Victorian state, having featured in the Sydney Swans side that was victorious over Hawthorn in 2012.

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* This is Damien Hardwick’s sixth AFL grand final in any capacity, having featured in Essendon’s 2000 premiership side as well as Port Adelaide’s 2004 premiership side. He was also part of the Bombers side that lost the grand final to the Brisbane Lions in 2001, was an assistant coach at Hawthorn when they won in 2008, and of course coached the Tigers to glory in 2017.

* This is Leon Cameron’s second AFL grand final in any capacity, having been on the coaching panel at Hawthorn when they lost to the Sydney Swans in 2012.

* While this will be the seventh consecutive premiership to be won by either Alastair Clarkson or one of his coaching proteges, this will be the first grand final to pit two of his ex-assistant coaches against each other (Hardwick and Cameron).

And something random…
* A Giants premiership would keep intact a seven-year pattern in which a Sydney club has won the flag, following on from the Sydney Swans winning the premiership in 2005 and 2012. The Swans, of course, failed to qualify for the finals this year.

Match predictions
Margin: Richmond by 24 points.
First goal-kicker: Jack Riewoldt (Richmond), Jeremy Cameron (GWS Giants)
Most goals: Riewoldt (Richmond), Cameron (GWS Giants)
Most possessions: Dustin Martin (Richmond), Lachie Whitfield (GWS Giants)
Norm Smith Medal: Martin (if Richmond wins), Toby Greene (if the GWS Giants win)

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