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Canberra Raiders vs South Sydney Rabbitohs: NRL preliminary final preview, prediction

26th September, 2019
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26th September, 2019
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The Canberra Raiders will play what is likely to be their biggest-ever game on home soil tonight when they welcome the inconsistent South Sydney Rabbitohs to GIO Stadium.

There is no question just what this game means to the folk of the nation’s capital. The game was virtually sold out within half an hour of tickets going on sale, and the crowd will be probably the biggest Canberra has ever seen, with extra temporary seats added to the ground.

The green machine haven’t won a competition since 1994, and it’s fitting in some ways that Ricky Stuart is the man in charge of their latest attempt to break the drought, given his long history at the club as a player.

In fact, the club’s last home final was back in 2016, and while they won the elimination and semi-final that year, a trek to Melbourne for the preliminary would prove a bridge too far.

This year, it was that exact same trip which not only earnt them a week off, but summarised how far the Raiders have come in the last three years, with much of that rapid growth in 2019.

It has been a season to remember for the Raiders, who go into this preliminary final as red-hot favourites, and the only thing that looks likely to stop them is a slow start after the fortnight off.

At their best, they are premiership contenders who can slug it out against anybody, and no matter what their regular-season record against top-four opposition says, they have beaten the Storm twice in Melbourne, so that blows all that out of the water.

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Unlike the Raiders of past generations, this is a side who have proven they can roll the sleeves up and get into a high-quality scrap, but also put points up when not playing all that well.

Of course, if there is a side who have specialised in winning when not playing well this year, it has been their opponents for this contest.

Wayne Bennett’s Rabbitohs haven’t put together a complete 80-minute performance at the top of their potential since the opening round of the season.

Wayne 'Dirty Harry' Bennett

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

Since then, they have made far too many sloppy errors, struggled with injury and suspensions, haven’t played direct or fast enough, and have drifted in and out of games badly.

They simply will not be able to afford any of that as they head to Canberra, and a fast start to shut the big crowd up will be essential if they want to gain any momentum or the upper-hand in the contest.

While their opening week of the finals against the Sydney Roosters certainly wasn’t memorable, last week’s win hides over some big cracks in the Rabbitohs.

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Their edge defence was leaky at times, and their forwards struggled to go with the Sea Eagles for large chunks of the contest, however, there are positives to take from the victory.

The biggest among them is the character of the side, who had injuries and concussions galore during the second half. Sure, they might have been aided by Jake Trbojevic being sent to the sin bin and Manly playing 20 of the final 25 minutes with 12 on the park, but Souths had problems of their own, so to come from behind in the manner they did was impressive.

They are going to need character in spades as they take on the Raiders on the road though, being prepared to hang in through the tough stretches, shut down the big names – Josh Hodgson in particular – and make the most of any and all opportunities they get across the 80 minutes.

Speaking of games the Rabbitohs haven’t been at their best, but won, and the last meeting between these two sides, back in Round 10, comes to mind as the Rabbitohs escaped with a four-point win in Canberra.

Still, the Raiders hold a reasonable advantage in the overall head-to-head, and have won four of the last five between the two sides in the ACT.

Team news and squads

Canberra Raiders
The Raiders have made no changes to their 21, although, after being hit by a firework, Joseph Leilua is back into the centres, with Bailey Simonsson returning to the bench.

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In addition, the surprise call to have Josh Papalii off the bench against Melbourne has been put back, with the Maroons prop to start and Dunamis Lui playing from the bench.

Josh Papalii runs the ball.

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Ryan Sutton is still in the 19-man squad 24 hours before kick-off, so Ricky Stuart may yet elect to play the Englishman, but it seems unlikely.

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, 2. Nick Cotric, 3. Jarrod Croker, 4. Joseph Leilua, 5. Jordan Rapana, 6. Jack Wighton, 7. Aidan Sezer, 8. Josh Papalii, 9. Josh Hodgson, 10. Iosia Soliola, 11. John Bateman, 12. Elliott Whitehead, 13. Joseph Tapine

Bench: 14. Bailey Simonsson, 15. Emre Guler, 16. Corey Horsburgh, 17. Dunmais Lui, 18. Sam Williams, 19. Ryan Sutton, 20. Siliva Havili, 21. Sebastian Kris

South Sydney Rabbitohs
There were no changes when the Rabbitohs were named on Tuesday, which seemed a surprise given how many of their players finished in the casualty ward last Saturday.

However, James Roberts has since been ruled out. Campbell Graham moves to the centres and Corey Allan comes onto the wing in a big blow for the already susceptible outside backs of the Bunnies.

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1. Adam Doueihi, 2. Alex Johnston, 5. Campbell Graham, 4. Dane Gagai, 19. Corey Allan, 6. Cody Walker, 7. Adam Reynolds, 8. Tom Burgess, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Liam Knight, 11. John Sutton, 12. Sam Burgess, 13. Cameron Murray

Bench: 14. George Burgess, 15. Tevita Tavola, 16. Ethan Lowe, 17. Mark Nicholls, 18. Jaydn Su’A, 19. Corey Allan, 20. Dean Britt, 21. Mawene Hiroti

Keys to the game

Josh Hodgson and Damien Cook
There is no question that when you look across the park at these two sides, the biggest battle of the lot is the one between the hookers, Josh Hodgson and Damien Cook.

Both have been in fine form throughout the season and are among the best in the game, but the way they are able to control the game for their respective sides will have a huge influence on Friday’s preliminary final.

While Cook has been a little below what might be considered his best in 2019, that’s not exactly a knock on him – it’s just that the Rabbitohs have flat out struggled with pace and directness of play at times, which is what Cook thrives off.

If their forwards can get a roll on and get the game nice and sped up, then the chance for him to dominate tired opposition forwards and send players like Sam Burgess and Cameron Murray on big runs goes up ten-fold.

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On the other hand though, Hodgson is the Raiders primary organiser, and with his passing game and vision, he will look to kick-start attacks out of the middle, which end with the Raiders’ dominant wide ball runners.

It’s difficult to determine which of these stars takes the edge into the game, because they are both so good and have so many factors playing around them, however, expect the winner of the preliminary final to be the side with the hooker who outperforms his opposite number.

Josh Hodgson of the Raiders

(AAP Image/Lukas Coch)

Can the Rabbitohs fix up their edge defence?
On top of the hookers, this is probably the other key question which is going to go along way towards deciding the eventual outcome of the contest.

The Rabbitohs edges, to put it nicely, have been shredded throughout the finals so far.

The Roosters had a field day, and Manly were cruisng last weekend before it all came unstuck. To put it simply, the defensive combinations out wide for the Rabbitohs haven’t been working.

Now, injuries haven’t helped, and nor did a re-shuffle, but that can’t be an excuse this evening in Canberra. Put simply, if it is, they won’t be going to the grand final, falling a week short for the second year in a row.

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James Roberts being out won’t improve things this weekend either, and the Raiders are one of those sides who can exploit weak edge defence like few others in the competition.

The weapons they have out wide don’t need to be introduced beyond their names to send a shiver up the spine of Souths supporters – Nick Cotric, Jarrod Croker, Jordan Rapana and Joey Leilua.

All that with overlaps being created from the inside by guys like Hodgson, Aidan Sezer and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad.

It’s little wonder the Raiders have been such an enjoyable team to watch this year, and they could run up a score if they have their way.

Souths must play from in front
I made this point a little earlier in the piece, but the Rabbitohs are going into what is going to be a fortress on Friday. They must start well and shut this capacity crowd up, because coming from behind like they did last week, is unlikely to be an option, or anywhere near as straightforward.

As it was, they were helped big time last weekend by the sin bins late in the contest, but got through.

They can’t be relying on that again in Canberra, but what makes it even more important to start strongly for the men from Redfern is the week’s break the Raiders have had, and the relative strength of the interchange benches presented by both sides.

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While the week off speaks for itself, the Raiders bench features guys who could all have genuine claims to start in the 17 not just at the Raiders, but at other clubs.

Dunamis Lui is the best of the lot, but Corey Horsburgh and young gun Emre Guler add a lot to the pack, while Bailey Simonsson proved where his career and maturity level is at when he was pushed to start at the last minute against Melbourne.

This isn’t a knock on Souths, as they have done the job from the bench, but outside of George Burgess, there are big question marks – and even then, it’s not set in stone what sort of performance George will provide.

Rabbitohs forward George Burgess.

(Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Mark Nicholls and Tevita Tatola will have a huge task in firming up the middle, while Ethan Lowe’s form has dropped off considerably since Origin.

They have the talent, but not the form, and on that, the Rabbitohs simply have to play from in front.

Prediction

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There is a genuine feeling that this match could go either way, despite the Raiders favouritism. As seems to be the case with most matches at this time of year, teams are at least in something near decent form.

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However, the Raiders have the home ground advantage, they have been playing the better football of the two sides and will be well-rested.

As long as they don’t have any rust from the said week off, they should be able to stay competitive at the start, then run over the top to make the big one for the first time this century.

Raiders by 10.

What you need to know about the game

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Date: Friday, September 27
Kick-off: 7:50pm (AEST)
Venue: GIO Stadium, Canberra
TV: Live, Fox League 502, Channel 9
Online: Live, Foxtel App, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, 9Now, NRL Digital Pass
Betting: Raiders $1.50, Rabbitohs $2.45
Overall record: Played 55, Raiders 32, Rabbitohs 23
Last meeting: Round 10, Raiders 12 defeated by Rabbitohs 16 at GIO Stadium
Last five: Raiders 3, Rabbitohs 2
Record in finals: Played 4, Raiders 2, Rabbitohs 2
Record at venue: Played 15, Raiders 9, Rabbitohs 6
Referees: Ben Cummins, Grant Atkins

Don’t forget to join us here on The Roar from 7:30pm (AEST) on Friday evening for our live coverage and highlights of the game.

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