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Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm: NRL preliminary final preview, prediction

27th September, 2019
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27th September, 2019
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The grand final rematch roars to life a week early in 2019, with the Sydney Roosters and Melbourne Storm set to put it all on the line with the second spot in the grand final on the line at the Sydney Cricket Ground.

When you look at pictures of consistency in the NRL, it’s difficult to go past these two sides as the ones you’d be backing every time.

Their records in recent times have been spectacular, and it was little wonder most fans have had a grand final rematch locked into next week, rather than this week, for months.

The Storm have been in the last three grand finals and are shooting for four in a row here, while the Roosters have been at the top end of town for years and are looking to become the first team since 1992 and 1993 to go back-to-back in a unified national competition.

It’s an incredible story for both sides, and their rivalry has gone to another level this year after that fairly one-sided decider at the end of 2018.

The games they have played have been absolute belters, with the first leg decided by a Latrell Mitchell field goal in golden point at the home of the Storm, before they went west to the Adelaide Oval and went to the wire again, with the Storm hitting back by a penalty goal.

Given their regular-season matches last year were tight as well, it’s hard to think of that grand final last year as anything other than emotion-charged for the Roosters.

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And to be fair, they have that same emotion again with Cooper Cronk back in control of both arms, but in the final matches of his career.

His role in the halves for the Roosters will be pivotal alongside Luke Keary, particularly with a big name prop being ruled out in Jared Waerea-Hargreaves.

But nothing has phased the Roosters in 2019. Trent Robinson’s side, who did give up the minor premiership by a considerable distance, finished the season like a house on fire, and then wiped the South Sydney Rabbitohs off the floor with a monster win in their qualifying final a fortnight ago.

That gave them the week off, and it’s all-important given they now run into a Melbourne Storm side who had to play last week, albeit by the loosest meaning of the word.

Kenneath Bromwich and the Storm celebrate.

(Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)

Their game last weekend was about as one-sided as it gets. Well, not as bad as that time the Eels beat the Broncos 58-0 a week earlier, but still, a 32-0 thumping of Parramatta was more of a training gallop than an actual match for a fired-up Melbourne who were in a mood during the first half.

They will be concerned that Cameron Smith seemed to lose his kicking boots, and will still be angry about the earlier loss to the Raiders that forced them to play last week, but as far as semi-finals go, it was about as seamless as it gets for Craig Bellamy’s side.

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The Storm have never visited the Sydney Cricket Ground as a club though. While they had a run around on the Adelaide Oval earlier this year, and have been training on an oval ground at the facilities of the Collingwood AFL club during the week, nothing can properly prepare them for walking onto the fortress that the Roosters have turned their temporary home ground into this year.

Team news and squads

Sydney Roosters
As mentioned in the opening spiel of this preview, the Roosters suffered a huge loss in Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, who has to sit out the match with a suspension after he was pinged for tripping in the Roosters win over the Rabbitohs.

The Roosters’ overall winning percentage drops to under 50 per cent when the big enforcer isn’t playing.

It means Sio Siua Taukeiaho is promoted to the front row, while Lindsay Collins joins the bench. They may not lose much in the opening exchanges, but Taukeiaho’s match fitness remains up in the air, while Collins is hardly Taukeiaho or Waerea-Hargreaves, as much credit as he deserves for the way he has played when opportunities have been presented throughout the season.

There was also a chance that Jake Friend would be re-called, however, that has now been snuffed out after he was dropped from the reserves list 24 hours out from kick-off.

1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Joseph Manu 5. Brett Morris 6. Luke Keary 7. Cooper Cronk 8. Isaac Liu 9. Sam Verrills 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Boyd Cordner 12. Mitchell Aubusson 13. Victor Radley

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Interchange: 14. Angus Crichton 15. Zane Tetevano 16. Nat Butcher 17. Lindsay Collins 19. Drew Hutchison 21. Ryan Hall

Melbourne Storm
A late change has caused a complete re-write of this section on Friday night, with explosive winger Suliasi Vunivalu ruled out of the preliminary final for the Storm with injury.

The formerly dropped Will Chambers is returned to the starting 17 on the wing, while Joe Stimson appears to be the man who joins the bench.

Will Chambers at Kangaroos training

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Don’t be surprised if Chambers ends up playing centre though, with Justin Olam to take the spot outside.

Melbourne made no other changes on Tuesday from their win over Parramatta.

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 17. Will Chambers 3. Curtis Scott 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Cameron Smith 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Dale Finucane

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Interchange: 14. Brandon Smith 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Max King 19. Joe Stimson 20. Tino Faasuamaleaui 21. Sandor Earl

Keys to the game

How do the Roosters overcome the loss of Waerea-Hargreaves?
Normally, you’d say this sort of lough would be tough, but they could probably do a job in handling it.

However, this is a preliminary final, against the Melbourne Storm. The job is not going to be so simple for the Roosters, who are going to need other players to put their hand up in a big way.

While the winning percentage could be construed as a little misleading, as often other players have joined Waerea-Hargreaves on the sidelines for those losses, it’s still a damning number and shows his influence on the tri-colours.

Why it becomes such a challenge against the Storm, is because he is the perfect guy to try and slow down the Melbourne starting middle third of Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Jesse Bromwich and the ever-consistent Dale Finucane.

It’s not to say Sio Siua Taukeiaho can’t do it, but after an all-guns-blazing start to the season, he has really slowed down through injury and lack of match fitness, so it’ll be interesting to see if he is up to the challenge of playing extra minutes.

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If they do manage to keep level with the Melbourne starting middle three, then the challenge won’t get any easier off the bench, and this is where the big loss is for the Roosters.

Having to start Taukeiaho means they lose some serious size and strength from the pine, which Brandon Smith, Tui Kamikamica and Max King can really look to exploit.

Melbourne’s bench isn’t as great as it’s been at times throughout the year, but they still aren’t a side you’d like to be taking on understrength.

The Roosters’ centres must take charge
When you run through the tri-colours side, you know what you’re going to get almost all the way across the park.

Their spine is rock solid, the forwards will hold their own, and the wingers aren’t going to bomb many chances, but it’s the centres who could hold the key to the entire operation.

Joseph Manu and Latrell Mitchell have both written themselves down as two of the most dangerous men in the NRL, and it’s time for them to show not just that, but consistency in this preliminary final.

Patience is a great skill in the NRL, and not all young players have it. Certainly, Mitchell hasn’t at times, and Manu has been prone to doing things too sharply as well.

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Instead of trying for the miracle play, they need to be more than happy to win the possession and territory battle in what is likely to be a tight match, and just know that points will follow.

Cameron Smith will stand up and show the way
It’d be fair to say that Smith was just a little off his game last week. If the horrid goalkicking record wasn’t enough to prove it for you, then his act of lunacy where he ended up in the sin bin surely was.

But, aside from that, his decision making was a wee bit slow and off, and his kicking game in general play wasn’t much chop either.

In fact, it’s a credit to the Storm that they were able to rip the Eels in half like they did without their leader at his best.

Try that again against the Roosters though, and it won’t end with pretty results for the side from Melbourne. Simply put, Smith needs to be at his best.

And he is too good not to be. For Smith to have two average returns in a season is rare enough, but for him to do it two weeks in a row would be downright unheard of.

So, with Smith back at his best, controlling his team around the park, turning the Roosters pack around with his kicking and orchestrating the offence, he could be the difference.

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Cameron Smith

(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

Prediction

Playing at the Sydney Cricket Ground gives the Roosters a huge boost in this preliminary final, and while I still believe no team will ever break through and go back-to-back, the Roosters are getting awfully close.

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Trent Robinson will have his team primed and ready with the week off behind them, and I’d expect them to be back in the decider next week.

But be warned. This, like previous games between these two sides, will be a thriller.

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Roosters by 1.

What you need to know about the game

Date: Saturday, September 28
Kick-off: 7:50pm (AEST)
Venue: Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
TV: Live, Fox League 502, Channel 9
Online: Live, Foxtel app, Foxtel Now, NRL Digital Pass
Betting: Roosters $1.58, Storm $2.35
Overall record: Played 38, Storm 21, Roosters 17
Last meeting: Round 15, Roosters 12 defeated by Storm 14 at Adelaide Oval
Last five: Storm 3, Roosters 2
Record in finals: Played 3, Roosters 2, Storm 1
Record at venue: Never played
Referees: Gerard Sutton, Adam Gee

Don’t forget to join us here on The Roar from 7:30pm (AEST) on Saturday evening for our live coverage and highlights of the game.

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