Japan’s victory over Ireland has been described as the “Stunner in Shizuoka” and a “seismic shock“.
Much of the coverage of Japan’s win on Saturday night has compared it to the Brave Blossoms’ victory over South Africa at the 2015 World Cup. However, comparing these two matches does a disservice to Japan and ignores certain factors that suggest Saturday’s result was not the significant shock that it may seem.
Firstly, Japan are far from the minnow in world rugby they once were. In the past three years, they have established themselves clearly as the next best contender outside of the tier-one nations. Since 2015, they have only lost once to a non-tier-one team.
In the Pacific Nations Cup this year, Japan were dominant and beat Fiji, Tonga and the USA by at least two scores. Further, Japan have shown an ability to test the top-tier nations in key matches. Last year, Japan were good enough to lead England 15-10 at half-time in a friendly at Twickenham before fading in the second half. Japan also tied a Test match with France in Paris in November 2017.
Japan also had a style of play that was well adapted to test Ireland’s weaknesses. Offensively, the Brave Blossoms tend to mix quick hitting forward play with a desire to move the ball wide in attacking areas. This ability to throw the ball wide can be effective against the blitz style of defence employed by Ireland.
An example of how this can work is seen with Japan’s match-winning try. In an attacking zone, and with Ireland’s defenders drifting towards the centre of the field, Japan moved the ball quickly to Timothy Lafaele, who had a two-on-one outside him. He took the advantage and an excellent flat pass to Kenki Fukuoka saw Japan score.
(WILLIAM WEST/AFP/Getty Images)
Ireland use a simple offensive game plan that relies upon playing close to the ruck through the forwards. Japan’s defensive strength is with their forwards, and Ireland’s conservative approach played right into this strength. Japan’s backs lack size, and an opposing team who is more willing to shift the ball outside is more likely to test Japan’s defensive integrity.
Ireland are also not a team that is currently capable of putting any nation away. In 2019, Ireland have played 11 matches, and their highest score in those matches was 29, and that was against Italy. In only three of those 11 matches have Ireland scored more than two tries in a game. Two of those three games were also against Italy, the punching bag of European rugby. Knowing all of this, even if Ireland played at their best, Japan were always likely to be in contention.
The last indication that this was not a surprise result was in the way that Japan bossed the game. The Brave Blossoms had slight leads in possession and territory and also gained more meters in the kicking game. These are measures that tend to be predictive of strong tournament performance and are also good measures of the more dominant team in a given match.
These stats can be compared to Japan’s victory over South Africa in the 2015 World Cup. In this match, South Africa had 55% to 45% possession, won the territory game 58% to 42% and also gained more metres by foot and on the ground.
Despite this dominance, some key mistakes from the Springboks resulted in Japan scoring enough to win. This type of match – where the better team has more of the ball and territory yet still loses – is undoubtedly a shock. Saturday night was not such a surprise.
Any loss by a tier-one team to a tier-two team is an upset. However, this does not mean that Japan’s victory over Ireland is a shock. To describe it as such ignores Japan’s quality and the unique advantages that were offered to Japan in playing at home against an opposition who were not well designed to take advantage of Japan’s weaknesses.
The test for the Brave Blossoms will now be to maintain that level of dominance. Their next two games are against Samoa and then Scotland, both of whom are very beatable.
Win those and Japan are guaranteed to reach the knock-out stages of a World Cup for the first time, where they may get the chance to meet South Africa again.
The difference is that in the 2019 World Cup, a Japanese victory over the Springboks may not be quite so surprising.
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