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Law of averages could be a worry for New Zealand

Roar Rookie
15th October, 2019
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Roar Rookie
15th October, 2019
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The referees have been announced for the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals. Nigel Owens has been given the whistle for the New Zealand vs Ireland game on Saturday.

As well he might. The chatty Welshman has been one of the best referees in the world for the past decade or so and has blown many of the biggest contests over that time.

He is fair, funny, conscientious and scrupulously impartial.

He is not, however, infallible. Like any ordinary mortal he makes mistakes from time to time, and like any referee he has to make 50-50 calls that can only go 100 per cent in favour of one team leaving the other to rue what might have been.

With any decent referee at any level, the expectation should be that the tough 50-50 calls, and even the occasional wrong one, should even out over 80 minutes so that no side gains an unfair advantage.

If it is not possible that equilibrium be achieved at the end of one match, then the same referee officiating a series of matches between the same two teams should be expected to award an equal number of marginal calls to each team over the totality of his engagements with them.

This is a simple statement of the law of averages.

Which is why New Zealand have more to fear from the gods of chance than Ireland next Saturday because they are heavily in debt to Mr Owens for a couple of vital decisions that went their way – in not one but two desperately close Test matches against Ireland.

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Aaron Smith

Aaron Smith scores a try for the All Blacks (Photo by Renee McKay/Getty Images)

The first was in Christchurch in 2012, when the second match of a three-Test series was held in a city struggling to recover from a recent devastating earthquake.

New Zealand had won the first Test comfortably enough a week before and the combination of an Irish team smarting from that defeat and possibly a rare instance of All Black complacency resulted in a nail-biting finale with the scores level as the game neared its conclusion.

With less than 10 minutes left, an All Black was ordered to the bin for a late tackle on Irish full back Rob Kearney. From the ensuing Irish attack the ball was knocked on deep in the New Zealand half and a scrum awarded, at which the All Black pack was splintered by the Irish and retreated in some disarray.

Inexplicably, to Irish eyes at least, Owens ordered a penalty against Ireland for “deliberately wheeling” the scrum.

From the ensuing attack, the All Blacks moved down field and an attempted dropped goal was partially charged down, which fortunately for New Zealand meant that their forwards were resuming from a ruck on the goal-line and were all placed onside.

They were able to force a 5m scrum as soon as the Irish defence retrieved the ball. The drop goal from such a position proved to be a gimme for Dan Carter and New Zealand won by three points.

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The penalty award that started the attack was so contentious, however, that one of the legendary figures of Welsh rugby felt moved to write to the Irish Times to protest his compatriot’s decision.

Charlie Faulkner had been the loose head in the celebrated Pontypool Front Row of the 1970s, a club trio which had played together many times for Wales and once, during a tour match, for the British and Irish Lions in New Zealand in 1977.

Pointing out to two infringements by New Zealanders at the scrum which could only have contributed to its destruction by the Irish pack he called Owen’s decision “bizarre to say the least”.

Rugby referee Nigel Owens

The Irish had plenty to say to the referee in their loss to the All Blacks. (AFP, Franck Fife)

Few in Ireland disagreed.

The following year in Dublin, Owens was again in the middle when Ireland came as close as they ever had to a first win over New Zealand.

Leading by five points as the game entered its final minute, they were picking and driving to keep possession and run down the clock. Scuttlebutt has it that referees are encouraged in such instances to be very strict on the attacking team and to award no leniency at the breakdown.

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So when the Irish prop Jack McGrath stumbled at a ruck, despite being nowhere near the ball, there would be no question of the maxim De Minimis Non Curat Lex being applied. He was penalised and the All Blacks inevitably ran in a try with the clock well in the red.

Like the famous bus for which one waits for an hour only to see two or three arrive at once, Ireland had to wait 111 years to record a first win against the All Blacks.

They have now won two out of the last three encounters. Could it be three from four? The bookies reckon it will be New Zealand by 12 (at the time of writing) but if there is one score in it in the last minute and Mr Owens has to make a contentious decision?

Well, he owes Ireland one.

Or two.

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