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Opinion

Can England dethrone the All Blacks in their World Cup semi-final?

24th October, 2019
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24th October, 2019
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New Zealand exorcised a ghost in their quarter-final against Ireland: the spectre of Andy Farrell’s defence. Ever since 2016, when ‘Faz’ took over as the defence coach for Ireland, his niggardly refusal to give up tries and points has haunted the All Blacks.

With Ireland for three matches against New Zealand between 2016 and 2018, and with the British and Irish Lions for three Tests on the 2017 tour, Farrell’s defence only conceded 12 tries in the six games. That two tries per game average represents about half of what the All Blacks typically score against other opponents.

Kiwi attack coach Ian Foster finally got a handle on Faz’s defence in the World Cup quarter-final in Tokyo. The All Blacks offensive machine positively purred into action, scoring seven tries at the seventh time of asking.

Ironically, Foster owes a debt of thanks to New Zealand’s opponents in the upcoming semi-final, England. It was England who first put a dent in Ireland’s armour of self-belief during the 2019 Six Nations. They won by 32 points to 20 in Dublin, in a game Ireland were widely expected to win.

It was England who also raised some red flags about the Irish set-piece defence later in the year, when they routed the men in green at Twickenham in late August, 57-15. The Red Roses went one better than New Zealand in that match, scoring eight tries in the process of topping the half-century. Three of those tries came directly from scrums.

The addition of Manu Tuilagi in midfield and big Joe Cokanasiga on one wing created havoc in the Ireland defence from set plays, and I picked over the debris before the World Cup.

It is worth revisiting the two midfield tries England scored from scrums (one on the left, the other on the right side of the field) on that sunny afternoon at Twickenham:

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Both tries targeted the space outside the 13 channel – manned by Ireland centre Garry Ringrose – and in both cases the intervention of the blindside winger on attack was critical. In the first example, number 11 Johnny May provides the key pass, in the second number 14 Joe Cokanasiga touches down after penetrating the gap between Ringrose and the winger outside him, Andrew Conway.

Ian Foster probably took his cue from the problems Ireland experienced in this area to invent some new conundrums for the Irish backline to solve.

The try New Zealand scored in the 20th minute of their quarter-final bore a strong resemblance to the first Cokanasiga score:

Let’s take a look at the way Ireland set up on defence first, to give a clearer idea of the attacking opportunities their opponents may be afforded:

ireland defensive structure

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The men in green set up in a ‘hard four’, with all of the backs from 10 Johnny Sexton, through the centres (12 Robbie Henshaw and 13 Ringrose) and openside winger (14 Keith Earls) tending to behave as one tight unit, designed to drive upfield and disrupt the handling and passing of the attacking players.

Fullback Rob Kearney aligns behind Earls initially, though he would have to be conscious of the kick-pass threat from All Blacks outside-half Richie Mo’unga to the winger on the touchline (George Bridge) from the earlier group game against the Springboks.

Both England and the All Blacks are aiming to contract the defensive width of this hard four-man rush even further by offering apparent targets on the inside. England offer Johnny May, New Zealand Beauden Barrett, crashing down on an ‘unders’ line which demands Earls’ attention.

In both instances, the main idea is to drag the openside winger into defending at a position in between the goal-posts, and this is particularly obvious from the view straight down the field:

Both Stockdale (versus England) and Earls (against New Zealand) find themselves angling in, and defending closer to the near post than the far post when the key pass is made. The penultimate attacker (Sevu Reece for the All Blacks, Elliot Daly for England) has the room to make the final delivery out to the wing as a consequence.

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The only real difference in the two sequences is that the Irish cover gets back in time to haul down George Bridge near the goal-line, while it cannot stop Cokanasiga scoring immediately. Aaron Smith scored easily on the next phase for the Kiwis nonetheless.

The problem for Ireland was that their backline defence became narrower and narrower under duress. The following screenshot is taken from an advancing New Zealand lineout drive in the second period:

ireland defensive structure

As Richie Mo’unga goes to cross-kick for Reece on the far touchline, Ireland openside winger Stockdale is defending at least ten metres inside the 15-metre line, with the fullback maintaining position behind him.

It is hardly surprising that the All Blacks manufactured a score from all of that space.

Reece gets to within a metre of the goal-line to set up a simple conversion for replacement flanker Matt Todd on the next play.

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As the game reached its conclusion, the Irish set-piece defence finally lost all shape and cohesion at a close-range scrum:

At this stage in proceedings, Stockdale was jamming so far inside that he was actually on the ‘wrong’ side of the field.

ireland defensive structure

As Mo’unga goes to throw the cut-out pass off his left hand, the Ireland left winger has only one thing on his mind – interception or bust! The answer to the gamble was bust:

Poor Robbie Henshaw is several strides short of making a tackle on Jordie Barrett in the scramble, even though Barrett has to stop and wait for the final pass.

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Summary
The World Cup quarter-finals offered much food for thought for all of the sides involved. With Joe Schmidt ‘retiring’ from the northern hemisphere game after the tournament, Ireland are suddenly faced with more difficulties than appeared possible when they entered the competition as the number one ranked nation, and widely touted to reach the final.

Ireland lost their position at the cutting edge of the international game on February 2, 2019, when they lost 20-32 to England in the first round of the Six Nations in Dublin. Since then, they have been treading water in selection and their tactical approach, although this only became more obvious with subsequent defeats by Wales in Cardiff later in the tournament, England at Twickenham in August, and Japan at the pool stage of the World Cup.

It also appears that time has caught up with Andy Farrell’s defensive structures, especially from set plays. As Faz will take over from Schmidt as Ireland head coach in time for the 2020 Six Nations, he will need to overhaul this aspect in order to stay ahead of the game.

But it needed two very well-planned and executed set-piece attacks to expose the weaknesses on the edge of Farrell’s ‘hard four’ – one by New Zealand in Tokyo, the other by England at Twickenham. Those are the two nations who are currently balancing successfully on the razor’s edge at the very top of Test match rugby.

The similarity in the two results suggests that the two teams will be closely matched when they meet on Saturday at Yokohama.

Who will prove closer to the zeitgeist of the international game? England have more power and all-round solidity, New Zealand have more X-factor. It is a mouth-watering prospect, but I will take England to shade it.

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