Opinion
The ICC has proposed making Tests a four-day affair, and the idea seems to be supported by England and Wales Cricket Board.
Michael Vaughan, former England captain, seems to concur, tweeting, “318 overs is the average result in the 21st century … Only 13 out of 39 Tests this year have gone to the 5th day … only 4 draws”.
However, my analysis of Test data over a longer period – since 2010 – does not seem to support these views. Since 2010 we have had 154 games with more than 360 overs bowled. Assuming each day had 90 overs bowled, all of those games would have gone to a fifth day. Of those matches, 106 produced a result and only 48 ended in a draw. That implies nearly 70 per cent of the games that went to five days had a decisive result.
318 overs is the average result in the 21st century … Only 13 out of 39 Tests this year have gone to the 5th day … only 4 draws !!!!!!!! All rain affected … !!!!!!! https://t.co/cmAEnKhTuN
— Michael Vaughan (@MichaelVaughan) December 30, 2019
Of all the 340 Tests with results since 2010, 106 came from having at least 360 overs bowled. That means over 30 per cent of Tests with results came from games with over 360 overs bowled.
The average of “318 overs” that Vaughan tweets may not be indicative. To quote Nassim Taleb, the author of Black Swan, “don’t cross a river because it is four feet deep on average”. The average of 318 overs, in this case, drowns out over 30 per cent of results from the last decade.
The ICC also seems to suggest that 98 overs be bowled in a day. Since we rarely see even 90 overs bowled per day now, I don’t see how players, even if given more time and daylight in favourable weather, could actually achieve 98 overs per day.
Aside from the win-loss considerations above, Test cricket can survive only when we have an audience that appreciates its poetic slow-burn towards drama. This audience would not mind the fifth day.
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