Darkness – after a duck last week (it happens, hopefully not often), we are down for the first time this year. Four bets in Melbourne for three seconds hit hard.
It was a tough day at Randwick last Saturday with a few placings and two short-priced winners.
Thankfully my Gold Coast tip got it done – very rarely said – so here’s hoping for a good result this Saturday to stay in front for 2020.
Weather is an obvious variable this Saturday, with storms expected Friday and Saturday. I’ve done my numbers expecting a slow range – just when you think there are a few good things!
Anyway, here’s hoping the wet gets to the right places and we all end up in front.
Units bet: 17
Units won: 19.5
Total: +2.5 (based on one unit win bet on each top selection, NSW dividends)
I have no selections in Race 1 due to the high number of unraced two-year-olds.
They have come from far and wide for this one, making the old highway tricky as ever. Dubai Tycoon broke the 1400 metres record at Bathurst two back, was then okay in a midweek meeting in town. Has won on soft. The early money has come for Absolute Trust after a good win last start, while Katie Did It might just do it again, having beaten donkeys by big margins at her home track recently.
Dean Mirfin might have a bucks party at Rosehill on Saturday or something. The Bathurst trainer has brought three horses to town for this one. I figure I may as well indulge and have taken Worldly Pleasure, who went back last time and left it too late but before that won in a lower grade at a good price after leading. Three out of five on slow tracks and not an overly strong race – sure! Switched probably has the best form from her races.
I’m backing Julian Rock to follow his last start (surprise) win on Boxing Day, where he spaced them nicely.
Very keen on Big Parade here, which was also nominated and was a leading hope for the previous race. He should be on the pace, has a win in the wet and is up to his favoured distance. Napster didn’t beat anything last start but is the lightly raced hope who could potentially improve.
Last chance for this fella. I’m still banking on him repeating his efforts from earlier this prep. He should be back to fitness now and is okay in the slop. Plenty of others around the mark, Nos. 2, 3, 9 and 4 the best of them.
Good race with plenty of chances. Broken Arrow is up in class but has performed to a consistent rating and gets weight relief here. Invictus Salute is also well-in with Dolan’s claim, while Embracer and Oriental Witness are both chances at good prices. Don’t forget Rare Episode, just off these in recent ratings but is three out of four in soft going.
Throw at the stumps here with the likely leader. Mercurial Lad paid $51 winning at last start. It’s half that price here and will lead, run the trip and enjoy the wet (4/5 heavy). Had Mr Dependable last week at the short price, who got a stitch with 150 left, like the quick backup, don’t like the extra distance and the bog track. I’ve been wrong before and likely will be here. Magic Over The Bay is the other one around the mark, who will come from the back, but distance and wet are both ticks.
I went with the short-priced favourite in the last, who looks a very nice horse who was good in his first go in Saturday grade. Condor rates next best – a fair way away – Mugatoo is a watch, having his first run in the country, and All But Gone is two from five on heavy and at $61, which could mean all our quaddies are gone if he gets home.
Good punting, and stay dry!