Darkness – after a duck last week (it happens, hopefully not often), we are down for the first time this year. Four bets in Melbourne for three seconds hit hard.
I have some catching up to do after an ordinary day in the wet last Saturday.
This weekend is another funny card with some good races mixed in. I have Sambro (Race 7, No. 7) as my best, but I’m very wary of Man Of Peace (Race 5 No. 8) if the money comes again.
Good punting, and enjoy the long weekend!
Units bet: 25
Units won: 22.1
Total: -2.9 (based on one unit win bet on each top selection, NSW dividends)
I don’t have a bet on Race 1 due to comprising largely unraced two year-olds.
There are two country races this week (eek). Bellsov Bourke will probably lead here and take some catching. He’s won at both starts this prep, at Dubbo, in good time. Plenty of others around the mark. Eurosay has gone close in town before and Velvet Aeroplane has trialled well.
Let’s do it all again! I think Hellenism the way to go here. The trainer change worked out first up and comes straight to town. I’m hoping she’s midfield somewhere and not too far back. Mr Aloysius won a maiden last start in good time and gets weight relief here, so might step up.
Fun Fact returns from the Gold Coast, where he raced well against good opposition. He will lead here and run the trip. I’m keen. I’ve got Matowi as the danger, who was a close second last time and has 2000 metres as the pet trip.
This is an interesting race. The money has already come for Valentino Rossa. Four of his five wins have come second up and three have come over 1600 metres. Tick, tick. He’ll be fit and ready to fire. Man Of Peace was backed off the map last start and took the cash. He’ll lead again here and is the other main hope. Mugatoo is having his first start in Australia if that’s your thing. Good luck.
This is a good little race. To Your Health was pretty close in this sort of grade. It recently stepped back to holiday and midweek races and dominated. This is the right sort of race. Missybeel broke through last start, Pumpkin Pie and Seles were near enough. I’m happy to leave Helga out with the big weight (perilous).
I’m going with another one coming home from the big Gold Coast races. I think Sambro is due if it finds the right race. It was doing well against better horses than these and drops in weight. Southern Lad does the reserve – it’s up in class after good performances against lesser horses. Cellarman isn’t the worst.
Pandemic might be the best of the smart ones here and will be looking at bigger races around Easter. Sir Elton and True Detective are similar stories and the biggest dangers. Safado is now with Team Waller and could be very good.
This is a tricky race to finish. I’ll have a sneaky go at Nicochet, who normally warms into his preps and chased well last start. Poetic Charmer and Superium are good hopes. Come Along is the quaddie blowout, right down in weight (Dolan in the last!).