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Opinion
The Demons are the league’s most consistently underperforming team.
It’s hard to figure out what the problem is. Their midfield has always been elite, their coaching solid and while they’re a little light in the forward line, their backline is also strong and they’ve lots of running power, height and experience.
One problem seems to be that they know their ball use is their strength, and sometimes they overdo it. Last year the teams that dominated did so by playing direct and kicking far more than handpassing. For example, in 2019 the Adelaide Crows averaged 142 kicks and 91 handballs per game while Fremantle did 125 and 53 — about two and a half times more kicks than handballs.
By contrast, Melbourne averaged 121 and 92, indicating that they were playing far less direct football and fiddling around with it instead of going forward. Another part of the problem may be that for all the Demons’ running power, their runners are more endurance gut runners than line-breaking sprinters.
Aleisha Newman is harder to catch than a rush-hour train, but Karen Paxman, Elise O’Dea, Lily Mithen and company are great runners mostly in the sense that they cover lots of ground, not that they set the grass on fire. A lack of line-breaking speed might encourage a highly-skilled team to go sideways, backwards and everywhere else but forward, seeking a clever way to create opportunities.
But as Adelaide and Fremantle proved last year, going forward fast is how you score the most goals.
So what’s changed this year? Not a lot, as Melbourne eschewed the draft to spend top picks on acquiring Western Bulldogs defender Libby Birch. Birch is a good fit for the Demons, but instead of boasting an ultra-strong backline with her addition, the Demons have lost Bianca Jacobson who is missing this season from work commitments and Katherine Smith due to injury.
Melbourne’s backline retains the footspeed and rebounding power to the high-marking prowess of Meg Downie and Harriet Cordner, but while other teams are improving, the backline looks to have weakened just before what might be the highest-scoring AFLW season yet. It will be interesting to see if New South Wales U18s standout Breanna Tarrant takes her opportunity to fill a spot in the backline where her high-marking could come in handy.
Melbourne also have two Irish recruits in Sinead Goldrick and Niamh McEvoy, and if they’re as good as most Irish players have been of late they’ll add athleticism to the line-up — Goldrick possibly adding that line-breaking speed on a wing and McEvoy some marking in the forward line.
The powerful midfield welcomes back Daisy Pearce from maternity leave, who will once again make cause with the hard-running Karen Paxman, the clever Elise O’Dea, the zippy Lily Mithen and the dash of Aleisha Newman to remake that now-familiar combination.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
And up forward, Melbourne have the twin towers of Tegan Cunningham and Eden Zanker, and then whatever combination of smaller players fits the bill — maybe Kate Hore and Maddy Gay, maybe young Tyla Hanks. Hanks seemed a little wasted last season — one of the most talented players in last year’s draft, but she went to a team that already had a bunch of big midfield stars who do basically what she does, only with much more experience.
Perhaps she’ll be able to find a way to impact the game on a forward flank as Monique Conti did at the Bulldogs, but while fast enough, Hanks lacks Conti’s agility — her forte is clever skills and field-vision. If she were at Richmond or St Kilda this season she’d be a star, but instead it seems she’ll be stuck in a corner of Casey Fields, mostly overlooked.
And this is perhaps the last problem for the Demons — too many players who play a very similar way. Not many big bruisers or tackling machines, not many ferocious impact players, just lots of lean, athletic ball users who sometimes get beaten up by the harder, nastier, less complicated sides like Adelaide and Fremantle who kick long and hurt people.
I think Melbourne may need a bit more crash and bash to go with their finesse and dazzle, and I’m not sure they’ve got it this year either. Also, the loss of Smith and Jacobson from their backline is going to hurt.
But they’ll still do pretty well and will probably once again miss the finals by a whisker after inexplicably losing some game they shouldn’t have. Life’s tough in Hell.
Prediction: seventh