The Mounting Yard is jumping up to Randwick this weekend for the first day of the Championships.
Cyclones nearby, a ten-race card featuring lots of fresh horses and limited wet form and dwindling (negligible) profits for my little tipping blog.
What could possibly go wrong? Hopefully some value has been found and Jay Ford takes care of the rest. Good luck all.
Units bet: 44
Units won: 44.60
Total: +.6 (based on one unit win bet on each top selection, NSW dividends)
Race 1 – 9 Cap’s Boy
We kick off with a full field in the Highway and no wet form in sight.
Cap’s Boy looks like the horse with the most potential, he chased runaway leaders well last start and went like the extra 200 metres will be fine. The wet? Well, his dam liked it, and his sire won his only start on heavy.
Mayaman is up for this if he can handle the track, and Senatorial (16 winless runs and now consecutive wins) will run the trip and is placed on heavy ground.
Race 2 – 4 She’s Ideel
Sticking with She’s Ideel here. She was a good winner last time and is 2/2 on slow. Birth of Venus rates well and has the heavy track win, Our Fun is the other main chance but has no wet form and is 0/2 at the distance.
Race 3 – 8 Sei Stella
Sei Stella was good first-up, I recognise the rain is a risk but am hoping she can plug through. Funny race – God of Thunder and Corfuscate are the other class runners, Miss Exfactor has won fresh and on soft and heavy.
No selections in the two-year-old race due to the high number of runners only having had 1/2 starts.
Race 5 – 4 Ashlor
I’m happy to have Ashlor at the nice price, this horse has been racing against the best sprinters at weight-for-age, steps down a notch here, is in at a light weight and likes the sting out.
Jungle Edge is the obvious threat, beauty fresh turning back the clock, loves wet tracks but struggles second-up.
Race 6 – 12 Domed
A very tricky race to start the second half of the big card. I’m going with Domed, who raced against some good horses (Samadoubt) last prep and was okay, likes the wet (2/6 slow) and will be better with a run under his belt.
Attorney might be a very good horse, 3/4/8/11 also all right in depending on weather and race conditions. I’m leaving out Monsieur Sisu, even with the rain.
Race 7 – 2 Lyre
Lyre ran third in the Slipper on heavy, yes the winner that day is here as well, but this filly might be the better horse overall. 1/3/4 other class runners.
Race 8 – Dreamforce
One of my favourites is returning here. In his last prep Dreamforce crushed Te Akau Shark first-up over the same 1400 trip. Happy Clapper and Avilius are both superstars themselves.
Race 9 – Lashes
Lashes bruised my heart last start, but I’m giving her another (last) shot here against the mares and with the give out of the track. Have 4/6/7/9 and 11 all in the mix, good luck.
Race 10 – 13 Manhattan Mist
I reckon it’s the sort of day where it’s completely reasonable for a horse to win for the first time since 2008 to finish up. Manhattan Rain runs some lovely fourths that generally suck me in, and he’s done it again.
Add 3/6 at 1300, 1/2 on heavy, Jay Ford on board (see my bio) and a $26 price and I’m keen.
I won’t go too hard, there are plenty of chances including 2/5/7/8 and even 12 (if not too wet). Don’t be shy quaddie players.
Group 1 tip (one unit)
Flemington Race 7 – 1 Redzel
I’m hoping the champ Redzel has one left in him, note that he covered Nature Strip first-up last preparation at equal weights by over two lengths.
Go well punters, dream it, do it.