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The 2020 NRL season starts next Thursday and I can’t wait.
My optimism is huge, as is so many of yours.
Right now I’m even able to ignore the hard facts that, after the sixth round, we’ll already be able to draw a line through the finals chances of four sides and that just four rounds later we’ll be able to clearly see the half dozen sides that can actually win the 2020 premiership.
Right now I can even ignore the likely reality that those six sides will have a heavy presence from these usual contenders: the Roosters, Storm, Sea Eagles, Bulldogs and Broncos.
Right now I can even pretend that I don’t know that there is almost a 70 per cent chance that one of those sides will be the 2020 premier.
Right now I can try and imagine the following stats don’t exist:
| Rank | Team | Premierships | GF appearances | Wooden spoons | Finals appearances |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm | 5 | 9 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Roosters | 4 | 8 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Broncos | 3 | 4 | 0 | 20 |
| 4 | Sea Eagles | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Bulldogs | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Cowboys | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Dragons | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Sharks | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Knights | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Panthers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Rabbitohs | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Wests Tigers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Eels | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 14 | Warriors | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Raiders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| 16 | Titans | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
So;
• 14 of the possible 22 NRL premierships (63.6 per cent) have been won by just four sides.
• 29 of the possible 44 NRL grand final berths (65.9 per cent) have been taken by just five sides.
• 17 of the possible 44 NRL grand final berths (38.6 per cent) have been taken by just two sides.
• Eleven of the possible 22 NRL wooden spoons (50 per cent) have been taken by just three sides.
But right now I’m choosing to ignore all of that.
However, shortly my rose coloured glasses will get lost and the reality will once again set in.
Last year I examined – using the above facts – and accurately predicted the Roosters as the 2019 premiers, drawing them from this group of most likely teams: the Sharks, Broncos, Cowboys, Rabbitohs, Storm and Roosters.
Narrowing it down to these six sides used some science that centred around how each of the premiers had built up to their triumphs. Here is what that build-up looks like for each of the NRL’s 22 premiers to date.
| Year | Premiers | Recent premierships | Finals appearances in previous five years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Roosters | 2018, 2013 | All except 2016, preliminary finalists in 2017, 2015 and 2014 |
| 2018 | Roosters | 2013 | All except 2016, preliminary finalists in 2017, 2015 and 2014 |
| 2017 | Storm | 2012 | All five, runners up 2016, 2015 preliminary final |
| 2016 | Sharks | Nil | 2015, 2013, 2012 |
| 2015 | Cowboys | Nil | Previous four seasons |
| 2014 | Rabbitohs | Nil | Preliminary finals 2013 and 2012 |
| 2013 | Roosters | Nil | Runners up 2010 |
| 2012 | Storm | 2009, 2007 | All five seasons except 2010. 2011 preliminary final |
| 2011 | Sea Eagles | 2008 | All seasons back to 2005. Runners up 2007 |
| 2010 | Dragons | Nil | 2009, 2008, preliminary finals 2006 and 2005 |
| 2009 | Storm | 2007 | Runners up 2008 and 2006. Semi-finals 2005, 2004, 2003 |
| 2008 | Sea Eagles | Nil | 2007 runners up, 2006, 2005 |
| 2007 | Storm | Nil | 2006 runners up. Semi-finals 2005, 2004, 2003 |
| 2006 | Broncos | 2000 | Preliminary finals 2001 and 2002. 2003, 2004, 2005 |
| 2005 | Wests Tigers | Nil | Nil |
| 2004 | Bulldogs | Nil | 2003 preliminary final, 2001, 1999 |
| 2003 | Panthers | Nil | 2000 |
| 2002 | Roosters | Nil | 2000 Runners up. 2001, 1999, 1998 preliminary final |
| 2001 | Knights | 1997* | Preliminary finals 2000 and 1998. 1999 |
| 2000 | Broncos | 1998, 1997* | 1999, 1996, 1995 |
| 1999 | Storm | Nil | 1998 |
| 1998 | Broncos | 1997*, 1993, 1992 | 1996, 1995, 1994 |
So:
• Seven of the 22 premiers were runners up within the previous five seasons (33.3 per cent)
• Nine of the 22 premiers were preliminary finalists within the previous five seasons (42.85 per cent)
• 12 of the 22 premiers had won a premiership within the previous five seasons (52.4 per cent)
• 19 of the 22 premiers played in the finals the previous season (85.7 per cent)
So our huge stat here is that the eventual premiers – in all but 14.3 per cent of the time – had played in the previous year’s finals – the Roosters in 2013 and Wests Tigers in 2005 being the exceptions.
So the 2019 finalists all look pretty good indeed.
But we can probably draw a line through the Titans, Dragons, Cowboys, Warriors, Bulldogs, Knights, Penrith and Wests Tigers.
We can throw the Cowboys back in there because they’ve played in a grand final in very recent history.
And – while I’m not convinced of it – the stats suggest we should punt the Sea Eagles because they haven’t made a preliminary final or higher since the 2013 grand final. The same factor takes out the Eels who haven’t advanced beyond the semi-final stage since 2009.
So that leaves us with these sides being a realistic chance in 2020.
• Roosters
• Raiders
• Rabbitohs
• Storm
• Sharks
• Broncos
• Cowboys
So, let’s look at the chances of each.
Look, they’ve got Wade Graham, Bronson Xerri, Briton Nikora, Chad Townsend and Andrew Fifita in the plus column. In the minus column, they’ve lost Paul Gallen and they are carrying a whole lot of underperforming, injury-prone and wantaway players. The Sharks might not even make the finals.
If there was ever a player under more pressure than Brodie Croft I don’t remember them. He is tasked with trying to pull all of the dysfunction and underachievement at the Broncos together with string and wire, playing for a coach under immense pressure. I reckon Croft will give it a good crack – and the Broncos will improve dramatically on 2019 and make the finals – but they won’t win the premiership. I don’t think they can make the decider.
If Uncle Wayne had managed to get Jai Arrow to Redfern this season to augment the genius of Cam Murray, Cody Walker, Latrell Mitchell and Damien Cook, I reckon the Rabbitohs would have been a real chance this year. However, the departures of George and Sam Burgess have weakened the pack too much to make them a genuine premiership threat.
Although I’m not counting them out in regard to making the grand final.
Look, the Storm will make the finals this year. They may well make the preliminary finals. They may even make the decider. But they aren’t the 2020 premiers.
Yes, Ryan Papehuyzen is going to be even better and Christian Welch is back. However, Cam Smith – while still a superb player – may not be capable of getting this mob to the top. When Craig Bellamy was surrounding Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk with good meat and potatoes it was possible. However, Cameron Munster is the only other special player with him now and the superb discipline and relentless focus of Bellamy ball needs slightly more genius than the Purple Horde’s roster presently boasts.
The Cowboys are going to be a contender in 2020. They could even take out the title. Michael Morgan, Josh McGuire, Jason Taumalolo, Jordan McLean and Valentine Holmes are all superb players.
They’ve been in a decider recently so they know what it takes. If they can bond a strong team around them and really get their defence right, they could take out the title. But it’s still a long shot with lots of unknowns.
Only injury can stop the Raiders being contenders in 2020. While they’ve lost Jordan Rapana and Joey Leilua, there is still so much strength and strike in their side. Further, there is a grim determination to their work right now. While there are some obvious questions in regards to the make-up of their outside backs, you can be assured their defensive prowess from 2019 will again be a feature in 2020. The Raiders are a very good chance of making amends for their 2019 heartbreak.
The last side to pull off a three-peat was the Eels from 1981-83. It was a different time. A different era. Since then, no side – no matter how good (the early 90’s Raiders and Broncos, the turn of the millennium Broncos, the early 2000s Roosters, even the Storm behemoth) – has been able to repeat that feat.
The Roosters are the first side since 1993 to even go back-to-back. They’ve lost Cooper Cronk and let Latrell Mitchell walk, but they’ve lost nothing else. James Tedesco is the best player in the game. Luke Keary is a superb playmaker. The pack is unbelievably good. The coach is superb. There is depth everywhere.
They surely must be the favourites to win again this year. All the evidence points to Trent Robinson once more getting the dry cleaner to get the Gatorade stains out of his suit on Tuesday, October 6.