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Opinion
Six wins will get you in.
That would have been a pretty safe prediction to make before the season began. But approaching the pointy end of the AFLW season, that seems to be the clear target for the contenders on the two half-ladders as they jockey for finals positions.
Conference A has turned into a two-team race between the expected favourite Kangaroos and the surprisingly competitive Lions. With their rout of the Erin Phillips-less Crows Saturday, the Roos have fairly guaranteed that magic six with games against Geelong and the Bulldogs to come in the next two rounds – neither game will be a walkover, but North will be double-digit favourites in both.
Meanwhile, Brisbane are having a 2017 experience all over again, right down to the unexpected tie. Collingwood at home will be challenging but not worse than what they’ve faced and defeated this season, and Richmond are Richmond. Round 8 should become the championship match for the division minor premiership and more critically a week off while the loser fights past a possible six-win contender from the opposite conference.
The Giants have the inside track towards that third slot in A. The game in Adelaide this week being the test of their mettle that will tell whether they can work on momentum for finals or must scratch and claw their way past opponents for their chance at finals.
(AAP Image/Joel Carrett)
Adelaide and Geelong cannot reach six wins and must depend on one or the other (or both) knocking GWS off that target to have a chance at finals themselves. With their loss to the Cats on Friday night, the Gold Coast lost any realistic belief in becoming the first Suns team to earn a finals berth, and must now depend on winning three and a convoluted set of dog-eat-dog circumstances above them to sport any chance of playing a ninth game in 2020.
Over in Conference B, the Dockers amazingly have not guaranteed themselves a finals berth yet – lose three and they could/should be passed by the three below them. Needless to say, there are only mythical chances for St Kilda, West Coast, or the Bulldogs to reach post-season action.
After a presumably easy game this week at Whitten Oval – assumptions are made to be broken! – they’ll face each of the two teams immediately behind them: Melbourne at home and Carlton on the road. Believe it or not, but with Collingwood having Brisbane and two much easier games to come, even six wins doesn’t guarantee Fremantle (or anyone else in Conference B) a finals berth.
It’s very conceivable if the Magpies win this weekend, then there will be four teams with six or more wins. And four doesn’t go into three cleanly. Too bad we don’t have a crossover like the Canadian Football League does – if the fourth place team in one conference has a better record than the third place team in the other, they replace that team in the other conference’s finals ladder. That’s what happens when your conference is 5-2 halfway through the inter-conference schedule (three interconference games this week, seven left altogether).
Staring at the upcoming schedule, here’s what the ratings are projecting for the four-team race. Fremantle will beat the Bulldogs and Melbourne but lose at Carlton (7-1 record). Melbourne will beat Carlton, lose at Fremantle, and beat Gold Coast (6-2). Carlton will lose at Melbourne, then beat West Coast and Fremantle (6-2). Collingwood will lose at Brisbane, then beat St Kilda and Geelong (5-3).
In other words, status quo. Two out of three for each team, the order stays the same, and the Magpies wait for their men’s team to avenge them. Melbourne will have to ask for instructions regarding what to do during finals, but I’m sure they’ll manage.
This week’s games await. Let us enjoy the prospects.
Geelong vs North Melbourne
Oddsmakers say Kangaroos by 16.5
ELO-Following Football says the Kangaroos by 17
The fans say North wins by a 72 per cent majority
The Cats’ last and best chance to realistically declare their intent to play finals in 2020 involves outscoring the highest scoring team in the league Friday night. While the point spread is massive, the money line is actually closer than two other matches this week (the Saints and Dockers). This is more indicative of the margins of victory that North has been running up so far this season. Geelong has a better chance of winning than that point spread would indicate. It’s just that assuming if the Kangaroos do win, they’re likely to win big.
Take the Kangaroos to win. Depending on how you feel about the games Geelong won against two expansion teams the last two weeks, take the Roos to win by three goals or more. I am.
(Josh Elliott/The Roar)
Brisbane vs Collingwood
Oddsmakers say Brisbane by 2.5
ELO-Following Football says Brisbane by two
The fans say Collingwood will win, 53 per cent to 47 per cent
Close game on paper, and calling it is tough. Collingwood has to win to stay in touch with the teams above them in Conference B to have a chance to make finals, while the Lions have to win to have a chance to host the Conference A title game by defeating North on the last weekend of the season.
The deciding factor is the home field – an actual advantage, because of the Pies’ travel requirements to get there and the Queensland crowd, which is re-developing its taste for winning football on the east coast after all these years away from it.
And although the most common winning margin for an AFL game over the 120 years of games is two points, only 14 of the 131 previously contested AFLW games have ended with a margin of two or fewer (about an 11 per cent chance). We’ll take that chance. Brisbane covers that 2.5-point spread and wins.
St Kilda vs Richmond
Oddsmakers say Saints by 15.5
ELO-Following Football says St Kilda by 18
The fans choose St Kilda by a 74 per cent majority
Two expansion clubs meeting means 42 women taking the field Saturday afternoon eyeing an enhanced opportunity for a rare first-season win. On paper, the Saints could be the best of the four newbies in 2020, despite the dominance of Carlton on Saturday, while the Tiger women have as firm a grasp on the bottom of the ladder this season as the men hope to have on the top of theirs. But with Brisbane and Adelaide still to come on Richmond’s schedule, they would have to look at this match-up as their last, best chance to prevent becoming the first winless team in AFLW history.
The motivation will be strong for a roster filled with capable, proud women who have tasted success in this league on other teams – Sabrina Frederick, Monique Conti, Katie Brennan, even ex-Giants Phoebe Monahan and Christina Bernardi.
I don’t believe that dubious record will be broken by such a talented team of proud players. Richmond will find a way to keep that loss off their sheet. I’m taking Richmond’s side of the point spread, under my overriding belief that the only way one should take the underdog at all is if you can see them winning outright. While I’m not willing to place my bet on that vision, I won’t be surprised if they indeed win, and while I don’t have a figurative horse in this race, it would be nice not to saddle this team with that bagel-and-snowman for history to stare at.
Richmond to cover (hold St Kilda under a 15.5 point margin). St Kilda still wins.
Melbourne vs Carlton
Oddsmakers say Melbourne by 8.5
ELO-Following Football says Demons by three
The fans say Melbourne by an 86 per cent majority – wow
While I understand the league’s need to bring this product to as many outlets as possible, I sympathise with the teams themselves and their inability to establish true home-field advantages. AFLW teams only get four home games as it is. Some of these clubs never see the same home more than twice in a season. Melbourne is comparatively fortunate to consistently host their games at Casey Fields. This game is the only home game they’ve played away from Casey in two years.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
But of all games to take their home-field advantage away, they’re undoubtedly ruing that it’s this one. The winner virtually locks themselves into finals, the loser faces the prospect of ending the weekend in a percentage-broken tie with the Magpies for that last spot in tournament, and Fremantle’s still on both these clubs’ schedules.
These are two outstanding teams, and the differences are minute. Melbourne’s loss was a one-off to the Saints when they kicked 1.8 while allowing just four scoring shots, the most unlikely upset of the season so far. Meanwhile, Carlton lost convincingly to another good team in Collingwood, a team that Melbourne handled by 20 points two weeks later.
We’re taking Melbourne to win, not necessarily cover. They’ll take a one-pointer if it requires that.
Bulldogs vs Fremantle
Oddsmakers say Fremantle by 16.5
ELO-Following Football says Fremantle by 12.5
The fans say the Dockers win by a 73-27 majority
Fremantle going away. Fifty points is not an unreasonable guess.
Fremantle wins, covers, and embarrasses.
Adelaide vs GWS
Oddsmakers say Crows by 7.5
ELO-Following Football says Adelaide by 11 (if Erin Phillips plays)
The fans favour Adelaide to the tune of 89 per cent
Here’s the Giants’ chance to prove they’re finals material, on the road against the defending champions. Unfortunately, here’s also the chance for Adelaide to do the same, at home against a team that’s never beaten them. They faced each other in their first-ever AFLW game in 2017 (a 48-12 Adelaide win en route to the initial title), drew in 2018, and last year the Giants were the last team to stay within six goals of the eventual champs.
Adelaide wins, and if Phillips plays, Adelaide covers.
West Coast vs Gold Coast
Oddsmakers say Gold Coast by 8.5
ELO-Following Football says the Suns by 6.5
The fans say West Coast wins by an 84 per cent majority
This game superficially resembles the other expansion bowl across the continent, but the Eagles don’t have the urgency brought on by a zero in the W column, and the tangible if slight possibility of finals dangling in front of the Suns’ players and coaching staff is going to increase the motivation on that side of the grass. I like Gold Coast by a couple of goals, covering the spread. Except for edging a terrible Bulldogs team, West Coast hasn’t given us any reason to expect something dramatic from them against a Suns club that has shown its mettle each week until a surprisingly tame defeat at the hands of a middle-of-the-road Geelong club. They’ll see this as a chance to redeem themselves after that loss.
Gold Coast wins. I’m torn about the cover (8.5 points is a lot of cover for a team that doesn’t score all that well).
After five rounds, the oddsmakers are 25-9-1, ELO-FF is 26-9, the fan consensus went seven from seven last week and jumped to 25-9-1 as well, while the Buffalo missed on the Adelaide guess but remains in the lead at 26-8-1.
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