Opinion
Saturday’s Rosehill meeting shows we’re starting to get into serious carnival-time, we have the fillies and mares Coolmore Classic as the feature around a series of Group racing and the All-Star Mile down at Caulfield.
If picking a winner wasn’t hard enough at this time of year, it’s been sunny on Friday but rain is predicted for race day, and we have the cloud of a pandemic starting to lower over our favourite time of year. Anyway – as always – trust the system.
After a couple of lean (very lean) weeks, it was good to bounce back with positive results last week, hopefully there’s a couple here to keep the momentum going.
Viva The Bostonian!
Units bet: 82
Units won: 76.60
Based on one unit being equal to $1 win bet – NSW dividends (see comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition).
Race 1 – 10 Zoffany’s Lad (one unit)
Starting off with a nice value offering in Zoffany’s Lad, who gets out to a preferred distance range on a dry-ish (hopefully) track and with a nice weight drop when compared with his recent sparring partner Yonkers. Monegal is another at juicy odds that rates well and I had Dylan’s Romance next best.
Race 4 – 4 Soothing (one unit)
I’ve taken Soothing here fresh from a spell, think she may be the best sprinter in the race and should be ready to go. Greyworm will lead and look the winner at some point, while Spending to Win is the blowout hope.
Race 5 – 5 Probabeel (one unit)
I’m sticking with Probabeel after her ripping effort last start, hopefully she takes the next step here and gets the right result over her main rival Funstar. This Waller-trained filly was super fresh and has previously dominated as the trips have increased (so yes, I am a bit worried).
Short enough. If you’re looking for a speculator, Nudge is getting to silly odds and placed at Group 2 level on Cox Plate Day last year.
Race 6 – 8 Rock (two units)
I’m a big fan of Rock. He was great working up the grades last year and not disgraced in our top races like the Epsom and Cantala. He was good enough fresh and while this isn’t his grand final, he is 2/2 second-up and reasonably weighted.
Vegadaze is another of my favourites (you may have noticed) and will be honest from on-pace as always, Imaging will also be right in it here after getting a big ‘welcome to Australia’ in his first-run here (smashed on the turn).
Race 7 – 11 Spanish Whisper (two units)
I had to do the numbers twice here, but all is fine; Spanish Whisper rates well on top. She finished the spring with big weights in big races and returned well two weeks again carrying 58.5. With 54.5 here I won’t miss her.
Benitoite (also nommed in Melbourne) and Invincible Gem also rate highly at massive prices, and the favourites are justified as well (Sweet Deal, Pohutukawa and Sylvia’s Mother) based on their runs this prep.
(AAP Image/George Salpigtidis)
Race 8 – 10 Luvaluva (one unit)
A tricky little staying race here with conditions playing a big role. If the rain doesn’t come Luvaluva gets my vote, is right down the weights and has the runs on the board and this grade and distance. Slow 7 or worse and get the red pen out though.
The favourites Master of Wine (also prefers dry) and Mustajeer (a bit of sting out please) are both class runners, while imports Danceteria and Djukon could be ready to go but I’m hoping they need this before firing in the big carnival races.
Race 9 – 12 Designated (one unit)
Dolan in the last. Yes it’s provincial form, yes he probably prefers a firm track, but with 50.5 kilos and a pretty even field, I’m taking Designated at the double-figure (and the rest) price to take the step-up. The big dangers are the Baker-trained duo Positive Peace and Shock Alert, who seem nicely placed but might be involved in a speed battle up-front.
Something Fast is right in my numbers (leader as well).
Another Kiwi. Think this girl is an absolute ripper, gets to her favoured trip here and in a race of superstars, I think she’s the best of them. No knock for the mighty Alligator Blood, while Regal Power showed he’s the real deal last week (back to the mile the only query).
Good punting, I look forward to your comments and tips as always.
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