Opinion
Is the world spinning, or is it just me?
Back in 1918, the Spanish flu wreaked havoc on the planet, killing in excess of 50 million people worldwide. With the incredible advancements in communication and international travel since then, both the information about dealing with a pandemic and the virus itself are much more rapidly spreading across the globe.
Coming as it did immediately following WW1, its effects and the memory of it have been swallowed to some extent by that of the Great War.
Our current question is always going to feel like a balance scale – is the entertainment value and the relief from the mental and emotional stress of a pandemic worth the inherent, unavoidable risks of putting 40-odd men or women on the fields in physical contact with each other, even without fans in the building?
Admittedly, that was a decision that made for some interesting and humorous moments in the AFLW Round 6 action last weekend, and the value of television, radio and the internet to present the games to the public made the decision infinitely easier.
I don’t have the right answer, and neither does anyone else. God only knows what the immediate future holds for our sport, the nation and the world as the COVID-19 disease spreads and incubates. With a shortened, “fairer” schedule in front of us, we’ll be approaching each round’s predictions as if things will run as close to “normally” as feasible.
That being said, here are our notes for the 2020 season-opening week of the men’s AFL:
Oddsmakers say: Richmond is favoured by 22.5 points.
The ELO “Following Football” rating system says: Richmond by 38.5.
An aggregate of the computer predictions says: Richmond as a 78 per cent favourite.
Tipsters say: 96 per cent of fans think the Tigers will win.
As promising as the Blues have looked this fall and as improved as the young studs like Sam Walsh and Sam Powell-Pepper and this Patrick Cripps fella are, this is the defending champion we’re talking about. Last year in this spot in the fixture, it was the crippling of the game’s best defender that was thrown at the Tigers – and yet they won by 33.
This year, it’s the entire world that’s being thrown the curve, and what team is more experienced at having curveballs thrown at them but the defending champs?
Richmond by more than the point spread.
Oddsmakers say: Collingwood by 2.5.
ELO-FF says:the Bulldogs by five.
Computer predictions say: there’s a 51 per cent chance the Magpies go 1-0.
Tipsters say: there’s a 77 per cent chance they’re right.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The deciding factor in this match-up of similarly ranked teams is the difference in circumstances the teams have been facing. While the Pies were dealing with a host of factors, the most public of which was the self-isolation of Scott Pendlebury over the coronavirus, the Bulldogs were riding a wave of momentum as they approached Round 1.
If the start of the season is delayed significantly, this momentum might shift, but assuming the game’s played on Friday?
I expect the Bulldogs to win.
Oddsmakers say: Essendon by 14.5.
ELO-FF says: Essendon by ten.
Computer predictions say: Essendon has a 61 per cent chance of winning.
Tipsters say: the Bombers by an 89-11 margin.
Essendon may have problems, but Fremantle has Nat Fyfe – and that’s about it. Road victories will be few and far between for the Dockers this year, and Essendon has the tools to take advantage of a team like Fremantle.
I’m taking the points and an Essendon victory.
Oddsmakers say: Adelaide by 5.5.
ELO-FF says: Sydney by two.
Computer predictions say: the Crows have a 55 per cent chance of winning.
Tipsters say: Adelaide by an 85 per cent majority.
This is a difficult game to predict because I have these two teams in the same pot – hollow shells of their previous selves. My personal feeling is that besides the home-field advantage, Adelaide hasn’t been quite as poor in the Marsh series as decrepit Sydney is.
And to be favoured by less than a goal is too big a temptation to resist.
Adelaide to win by more than that single goal.
Oddsmakers say: GWS is favoured by 10.5.
ELO-FF says: Giants by two.
Computer predictions say: there’s a 52 per cent chance that the Giants win.
Tipsters say: the Giants at a 78 per cent rate.
The Giants, on the one hand, look more than ready to start the season with a relatively full complement of weapons. Geelong, on the other hand, is going to take their ageing catalogue of stars out to Sydney in odd and difficult circumstances, to face a team looking for someone to take out their grand final frustrations on.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
GWS wins in a landslide, far more than the ten-and-a-half predicted.
Oddsmakers say: Port Adelaide by 16.5.
ELO-FF says: the Power by 36.
Computer predictions say: there’s a 63 per cent chance that Port wins.
Tipsters say: Port Adelaide by an 87-13 margin.
Gold Coast’s recent history says they’re most dangerous at this point of the season, and it’s not hard to see why with the youngest starting line-up in the league. I don’t expect anything different in 2020, especially with two wins in the Marsh series on their record.
Maybe Port is still much better than the Suns are; maybe not. But the odds are significant that the Suns have the potential to wage a strong and perhaps even successful campaign. It seems worthwhile to wager that the Power won’t win by three full goals – they might win, they might even win by that margin; it’s just less than fifty per cent likely to happen like that.
Take Gold Coast to push past that betting margin; I’m taking the points and Gold Coast.
Oddsmakers say: St Kilda is favoured by 2.5.
ELO-FF says: Kangaroos by 20.
Computer predictions say: there’s a 64 per cent chance that North wins.
Tipsters say: a St Kilda victory.
For once the tipsters are miles ahead of the computers. Over the summer, there’s been a shift of power in the Docklands stable of clubs. While North has stayed relatively still, their fellow tenants have moved forward a great deal – the Bulldogs have continued to improve, part-timers Carlton are on an upward trajectory and the Saints were the stars of the preseason.
It appears as though at least at the moment the Saints may be outright superior to the Kangaroos.
Taking the Saints to win by a significant margin, certainly more than half a goal.
Oddsmakers say: Brisbane by 4.5.
ELO-FF says: Hawthorn by 9.
Computer predictions say: Hawthorn has a 55 per cent chance to win.
Tipsters say: it’s a 50-50 proposition.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
The reason the public’s so split on this game is the sense that despite the seven-spot difference in finishing ladder positions, the movement of the two teams over the off-season was towards each other, evening the clubs’ future fortunes.
But did they? Because when we did our preseason meta-forecast for The Roar last week, not only were the Lions two spots ahead of the Hawks in the summation of the assembled predictions, but the margins of the individual predictions spoke volumes. When Hawthorn was favoured to place about Brisbane, it was always by a single position – usually a metaphorical coin flip of a placement.
But when the Queenslanders were the preference, it was always by a margin of several positions – a don’t-argue gap that leaves no question which club was clearly superior to the other.
Looking at that data, it’s hard to deny the belief that Brisbane should be the unequivocal favourite, even in Melbourne. I’m taking the year-older, year-wiser Lions to win this game by a goal or more.
Oddsmakers say: West Coast by 22.5.
ELO-FF says: West Coast by almost 26.
Computer predictions say: Eagles have a 74 per cent chance of winning.
Tipsters say: 96 per cent say the Eagles will start the season 1-0.
So let’s see…West Coast is one of the commonly chosen flag favourites in 2020; Melbourne would have been the defending spoon holder had Gold Coast not been founded. West Coast defeated the Demons both meetings last season, following the finals rout in 2018.
Logic dictates that the Eagles should be overwhelming favourites.
But what about the preseason? The Eagles lost both of their home games this fall, albeit by narrow margins; meanwhile, the Demons won by large margins against Adelaide and Hawthorn. Don’t those games imply anything? Yes, probably.
But do they mean that Melbourne’s better than West Coast now? Not in the least. What they indicate is that it was important for the Demons to put forth a winning effort during the Marsh series to reassure both its barrackers and itself that this would be a different season than the catastrophic 2019, while no such fears lurked in any relevant Eagle psyches.
(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Adam Simpson said as much following the Essendon loss – it wasn’t important whether West Coast actually won the game, but what they showed during the combat – and he was pleased with what he saw there and in the nail-biter with Fremantle.
I’m not worried about the Eagles, especially in Optus. But Melbourne’s Optus-mistic preseason makes me wary of picking a four-goal margin against them before watching them play a game in earnest. West Coast to win; not necessarily cover.
We’ll track the season-long records of the five predictors here – the oddsmakers, the ELO-FF rating system, the average of the computer predictions, the average of the civilian prognosticators and the Buffalo (ahem, me), for no other reason than pure amusement and, hopefully, personal bragging rights on my part.
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