Opinion
It’s hard to believe that thanks to the conference system, the 4-2 Giants are a virtual lock for the finals, while the undefeated Fremantle Dockers may not even make it into the post-season with two games (theoretically) remaining in their season.
All comments assume a completion of the AFLW fixture as originally scheduled.
Consider the Giants sit in second place in Conference A, with games left at home versus the 2-4 Cats and at the 1-5 Bulldogs, and they only need to win one to guarantee their first finals berth. Meanwhile, Fremantle have two very lose-able games (home against Melbourne and at Carlton) amid a four-way percentage logjam. They would undoubtedly lose were their record to slip to 6-2.
The four other games their three pursuers face are all eminently winnable (Carlton versus West Coast, Melbourne versus Gold Coast, Collingwood versus St Kilda and Geelong), so two Dockers losses almost certainly place them in fourth, out of finals after a six-win start. Bizarre.
And yet the league did everything it could to re-balance the conferences after last year’s debacle. Adelaide should have been strong, Geelong should have been stronger, and Richmond were expected to be the best of the expansion teams, not the worst. Collingwood were the surprise in Conference B, keeping the three-team coronation from taking shape. It may simply not be possible to balance the conferences arbitrarily, given the variability of the teams the clubs produce on the field, which calls into question the desire to have such a system in the first place.
(AAP Image/Michael Dodge)
I stand by the Canadian Football League solution, which in a similar sized league solves this problem with a crossover. If the fourth-place team in a stronger conference has a better record than the third-place team on the weaker side, they replace that team in the post-season tournament. Hence, if Collingwood (for example) ended the season with a better record than Brisbane (for example), as they do now, they would be the Conference A third place representative instead of the Lions. The race would be between the sixth and seventh best records in the league for the last spot in finals, as it should be.
Are you listening, AFL? Just a suggestion if you want to keep the conference set-up, which otherwise makes sense.
Here’s the line-up for the penultimate week of season 2020 in the AFLW.
Richmond vs Brisbane
ELO-Following Football ratings: Brisbane by 14
Fan tipping consensus: 64 per cent say Brisbane wins
Ironically, after saying for weeks that their fate wouldn’t be tied to percentage because of their early-season draw, the team Brisbane are now battling for that last spot in finals with is the team they drew with, who sit just six percentage points behind them.
And if Gold Coast make up the win in the next two weeks, they’d probably make up the percentage difference in the process as well. It’s imperative for the Lions to win this game with the conference-leading Kangas looming next weekend.
Can Richmond challenge them Friday night? Sorry, but I blew my emotional wad on the Tigers last week. Brisbane win and cover over a team that will have to be a bit despondent after the decrepit performance against St Kilda. As bad as it was, perhaps they can be thankful no one besides family and friends were allowed to be there to watch it in person.
Carlton vs West Coast
ELO-FF ratings: Carlton by 34
Fan tipping consensus: 93 per cent tip Carlton
Blues have too much to play for to let this one slip. Carlton win big.
Kangaroos vs Bulldogs
ELO-FF ratings: Kangaroos by 31
Fan tipping consensus: 91 per cent choose North Melbourne
Despite the impressive performance by the Doggies last week, fighting to the end against an in-form Dockers, the Kangaroos are perhaps even more dangerous than Fremantle right now, and should run this one out. North win big.
GWS vs Geelong
ELO-FF ratings: GWS by eight
Fan tipping consensus: a surprisingly large 88 per cent are picking the Giants
Maybe it’s the stadium, maybe it’s the chance to make finals for the first time sitting so close to them, maybe it’s just the performance against Adelaide last week. But the Giants are on a roll in the eyes of the public, and it’s hard to buck that trend. It does seem like they should be able to squeak this out.
Geelong are no pushover, however, since their two wins are against expansion teams, it’s hard to pick them against the second-place Giants here.
GWS to win. I’m not picking them to beat the spread when they famously won a game 9-8 this season.
Gold Coast vs Adelaide
ELO-FF ratings: Crows by seven
Fan tipping consensus: 83 per cent favour Adelaide
This one’s much closer than you’d have ever believed six weeks ago, or than the tipsters seem to believe today. Let’s do some comparison shopping.
The Giants beat the Suns by one in Round 1, and the Crows by five last week. While the Suns battled the Lions to a draw in Round 2, Brisbane handled Adelaide with ease in Round 1.
Both teams lost to the Roos, but Adelaide were tripled up in Round 5, 63-21, while Gold Coast were much more competitive, losing by just 13 in Round 4, 47-34.
On the other hand, Adelaide beat Geelong 49-38, but the Coast lost to the Cats 38-18 in their worst performance of the year.
In their non-common games, Gold Coast handled Richmond by 11 and won easily at West Coast 33-8 last week. Adelaide’s two Conference B games were a defeat of the Saints 40-27 and a competitive loss to Carlton, 36-28.
(Chris Hyde/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
However you compare those six games, you’re going to come away with a positive impression of Gold Coast, and probably an increased impression of their prospects against the defending champions.
I’m going out onto that limb and taking the Suns to win this game outright. But I would take the tri-bet, where you’re betting that the margin will be under 15 points one way or the other.
Fremantle vs Melbourne
ELO-FF ratings: Freo by 3.5
Fan tipping consensus: 85 per cent think Fremantle win this
In WA, this game should be easy to call. Even though the Demons will be coming into this game thinking it’s a must-win, it’s hard to imagine Fremantle losing this game. They’ve made a living this season winning games that are closer than maybe they should be. In three of their six games, they’ve won by less than their ratings would indicate in advance.
Fremantle win a close game somehow. It might be by one, but they win.
Collingwood vs St Kilda
ELO-FF ratings: Collingwood by 8.5
Fan tipping consensus: Collingwood are the preference of 91 per cent of tippers
I did a comparison in the Gold Coast/Adelaide match-up. This one’s a bit more obvious.
The Saints lost to the Bulldogs 39-14. Collingwood defeated them 53-21.
St Kilda lost to Carlton 50-29, the Magpies beat the Blues 39-24
Both teams played league-leading Fremantle tooth-and-nail. Collingwood lost by three on the road. Saints lost by one at home.
The season-defining win for St Kilda was that 19-14 victory over Melbourne, and the Magpies lost to that Demons team in their worst game of the year the next week, 46-26.
Collingwood’s other two games were wins against Brisbane and West Coast. St Kilda’s other games were last week’s rout of Richmond and their loss to Adelaide in Round 2.
Looking at all that, it’s hard to say Collingwood shouldn’t be favoured. They’ll win unless the Saints have another four-leaf clover game like they did against Melbourne four weeks ago. The entire league’s had its four-leaf clover luck just playing this round.
Collingwood win by more than eight points.
Nobody was ready for Collingwood, Carlton or GWS to win last weekend, so four out of seven was a successful week for most of us. With 42 games done, the oddsmakers have 29.5 right, the ELO-Following Football ratings have 30 right, the punters have 29.5 right as well, and the Buffalo’s picked 30.5 winners, although only two of my bets came through with Fremantle and Richmond failing to cover, knocking me under even for the season.
If you care about a winner, it’s coming down to the wire. If there’s any reason to think positively about a possible premature shutdown, that’s my excuse.
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