Well, somehow we’re still racing!
I hope everyone is reasonably happy and healthy considering what’s going on at the moment. I recognise our little Saturday punt obviously pales to what some people have been through, particularly in the last week, so all the best and stay safe.
This Saturday we stay at Rosehill and the track is key. Last week’s Slipper Day card heavily favoured leaders. We should be drier this week and hopefully the track evens out.
I’m still hurting after last week, particularly with Miss Leonidas losing a photo at 50-1, but looking forward to having a flutter and retaining my rightful place on the positive side of the ledger.
Units bet: 98
Units won: 97.30
Based on one unit being equal to $1 win bet – NSW dividends (see comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition).
Race 1 – 12 Sausedge (one unit)
Tricky little opener. Sausedge has been racing close to her Canberra base and comes to town after a couple of nice runs at home to start her prep. Is a city winner, will get back and test any track bias but has class. I’m interested in Surrey Thunder. Was fifth in a German Derby and is having his first run in Australia, now with Chris Waller. Insensata and Commander both get in pretty well at each-way prices.
Race 2 – No bet
Two-year-olds over a longer trip.
Race 3 – 5 Zebrowski (one unit)
Warm-up to next week’s Derby over 2000 metres. Quite a few of these have finished four or five lengths off them in big Group 1 races. I’m taking one coming up through the ranks in Zebrowski. Was pretty good in last year’s Bondi Stakes and has prepared for this with two soft kills in mid-weeks. Quick Thinker was good behind Funstar last time but possibly prefers wet. Same with Prince Adelaide, who has beaten donkeys but done it well.
Race 4 – 6 Mount Tabora (one unit)
Not much going on with this race. Life Less Ordinary is short enough, while two lengths off Tea Akau Shark (and a weight drop for it!) would normally be right up my alley. He seems to run a lot of nice races just off them without winning. While that could all change, I’m backing Mount Tabora, who’s been working through the grades quietly in Melbourne and maps to get a soft lead. Not much else to look forward to outside the favourite.
Race 5 – 12 Handle the Truth (one and a half units)
Kosciuszko-winner Handle the Truth heads back to town after a good win lumping 61.5 kilos fresh. Drops eight kilos here, is three from five second up, five of eight at 1200 and three out of five at Rosehill. Already backed from $9 to $7, there are some good judges out there I hope! Manicure, Villami and Tactical Advantage are all competitive at this sort of level and could bob up if it’s their day.
Race 6 – 4 Southern France (one unit)
The Tancred/BMW/Tancred! One of my favourite races of the year, with the added bonus of raising your colours on the silks at the winning post if you salute. I suppose there’s also 870,000 other reasons to win it! Not the strongest edition in 2020. I’m taking Southern France at the price to be ready at 2400. Did enough last time and is good enough on his Sandown win last year. Verry Elleegant looks hardest to beat, Avilius hasn’t fired yet this prep and is due.
Race 7 – 4 Fascino (half a unit)
Funstar and Probabeel go at it again in the card’s second Group 1. They’re the ones we have to beat and I’m hoping Fascino is the one to do it. Is a weak Group 2 winner, was flying home last time and potentially is best suited by the distance rise to 2000. The other possible improver is Shout the Bar, although with the current pub situation I’m not sure if it’s a bad or good time for him to win if you have your money on him.
Race 8 – 3 Invincible Gem (three units)
I’m scratching my head at the big price for Invincible Gem here. Was a bob away from winning the Villiers last prep and looks set to fire third up here. Had excuses last time but back with the ladies and only carrying 56 she’ll have my money. Sweet Deal could get all the favours if the track is dry and favouring front-runners, Girl Tuesday is right in it on previous fresh form, and Positive Peace is the improver.
Race 9 – 14 Dealmaker
You have to earn your quaddie with this one. Chances everywhere. Jay Ford is looking for a Dolan-like last race run, and is on Rainbow Thief, who is into $14 from $26. I’m with Dealmaker. He made ground first up and should get a nice run from Gate 4. Star of the Seas was superb last time and is always good at this sort of level, Cascadian rates highly and Something Fast is in the quaddie as well. Good luck!