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Opinion
Here are my picks for Saturday’s races.
Play of the day: Russian Camelot $2.80 (Race 7), 4.5 units
I’m rather bullish about this colt, who looks a star in the making. He completely blew the start at Flemington first-up before rattling home into fourth over 1400m in a race that saw the first two home subsequently quinella the Bendigo Guineas. He steps out to 1600m here against inferior opposition which will prove the difference.
With Damien Oliver in the saddle, I expect class to prevail.
Next best: Rubiaski $2.30 (Race 10), 3.5 units
I expect the Patrick Payne filly to make it five in a row and send us home in style in the last. Although she’s dropping back to 1200m from 1400m, she’s rock-hard fit and can be ridden slightly more forward from the inside draw with Nash Rawiller in the saddle.
She is proven the Sydney way and relishes the wet, and much like Russian Camelot has a class edge on these and should be winning.
The barrier and track bias are the only concerns.
Back me: Rulership $3.10 (Race 1), 3 units
Another who’s a class above these. He was dominant at this track on debut over 1000m rolling forward in what was a gap job.
He has form behind Hanseatic and was competitive in Golden Slipper which saw him pull up lame, but has trialled well since and stepping back to 1100m should see Rawiller dictate proceedings out in front. His first try in the wet is the only query – if he handles it, he wins.
Back me: Reloaded $2 (Race 2), 2.5 units
He has raced superbly without winning this preparation and is poised to strike back in class. Although he has only accounted for one win from seven starts, the Darren Waller-trained colt has been within a length of the elite in Bradenburg, Shadow Hero and Microphone over 1400 and 1600m before a gallant Group 1 third last start over 2000m behind Castelvecchio and Prince Fawaz.
He steps back in trip to 1600m and should be given every chance with Rawiller in the saddle. The only knock is the inside draw but he can roll further forward in a race lacking speed.
Best of the rest: Dalasaan $2 (Race 7), 3 units
He has failed to live up to his early hype but has been far from disgraced at the elite level, which saw him finish 1.5L fifth behind Regal Power in the All-Star Mile. It’s well known that this three-year-old Dalakhani colt’s tendency to lay in continually costs him races but returning to his home track at Morphettville and stepping out to 1800m should see him extremely hard to beat.
It’s the best chance he’ll get to win a race anywhere in the nation and should be on the banned list for life if he can’t put these away.
(AAP Image/Race Images South)
Best E/W: Garner $5/2 (Race 9), 1.5 by 2.5 units
He looks well-placed here after a failing favourite ($2.80F) first-up over 1100m at Flemington (0.85L 3rd) behind Sangria. He’s a multiple Saturday grade winner over 1000m in Melbourne and has never been unplaced in seven career starts, returns to his home track of Morphettville and presents as the one to beat. Drawn the 1 but if he gets the breaks will be right in the finish.
Best value: Li’l Kontra $9/3 (Race 9), 0.5 by 1.5 units
He’s shaping up as the second coming of Tom Melbourne with nine seconds from 15 career starts. Much like Garner, he brings in superior form lines with a G1 fourth in the Newmarket and near misses to Group winners Xilong and Anaheed. Nothing suggests that he hasn’t come back in superb order with two seconds of a combined 0.3L in his first two runs.
Now third and rising to 1100m, he’ll put himself into the race and can break through in a competitive race.
Back me: Sizzlefly $5.50/2 (Race 7), 0.5 by 2.5 units
She was able to hold out the fit and talented Human Nature first-up in Mornington Cup Day over 1000m off the back of a 119-day spell. Now she’s second-up and is returning to Morphettville where she saluted over this distance on debut by 8.2L, which should see her continue to improve.
She has drawn perfectly in Barrier 8 of 16 and will be able to take a midfield sit.
Save on: Roccabascerna $3 (Race 7), 1.5-unit win
The classy Roccabascerna brings the superior form (Alligator Blood/Dalasaan) but presents first-up and will benefit from the run. He’s trialled up strongly over 1000m, which suggests he’s forward enough to be winning.
Place multi: Rubiaski, Reloaded, Russian Camelot, Dalasaan ($2.80), three-unit stake
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