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Opinion
Let’s look ahead to all the action.
First – Colette $3.30
It’s a competitive edition of the Oaks this year but I expect the Godolphin filly to prove too strong. She presents here third up off the back of a superb win in the Adrian Knox over 2000 metres last Saturday, which saw her get back in the run and let down with an electric turn of foot. The authority with which she won with suggests she’ll appreciate stepping out to 2400 metres and although she meets tougher opposition here this filly looks a star in the making.
Second – Shout The Bar $5
Was a tough on paced victory in the Vinery over 2000 metres last start, which saw her hold out Probabeel and short-priced favourite Funstar. Has drawn wide but I expect her to be able to roll across and take up a forward position with a lack of likely speed to her inside. In a race lacking a great deal of speed, key dangers Colette and Probabeel will have to be good to run her down if she stays the trip.
Third – Probabeel $4
The star Kiwi was enormous last start when failing to reel in Shout The Bar over 2000 metres where he was back and doing his best work late. All three Australian runs have been fantastic this preparation and it looks as though he’ll appreciate 2400 metres. The only knock is he’s been up since early January and this will be his sixth run in. A win wouldn’t surprise but Colette and Shout The Bar look to have more improvement coming here third up and ready to peak.
Fourth – Toffee Tongue $13
Was no match for Colette last start but was doing her best work late. Presents here fit and will appreciate stepping out to 2400 metres, although I expect Colette to have her measure once again. There’s no reason why she can’t improve sharply and fill the minors.
Fifth – Nudge $10
Loomed up to run down Shout The Bar last start in the Vinery but weakened over the last 200 metres, which saw Probabeel and Funstar hitting the line the better. Had an economical run up the inside but may have found herself in the inferior ground. The distance of 2400 metres is a big query but if she stays the trip, a top-four finish won’t shock.
$50 betting strategy
$30 trifecta 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
$20 win Colette
(PAUL CROCK/AFP/Getty Images)
First – Young Rascal $2.50
Fantastic first-up display over 2400 metres where he gave five kilos to Mugatoo in his first run on Australian soil and was too strong. Although the race didn’t rate through the roof and he’s never raced beyond 2500 metres, the way in which he attacked the line and continued to pick himself up suggests he’ll have no troubles seeing out the 3200 metres. Has drawn wide but speed influences Angel Of Truth and Hush Writer will be able to cart him into a forward position and if they can get a soft lead he’ll prove hard to beat with Marquand in the saddle.
Second – Mustajeer $5
Found it difficult to split Young Rascal and Mustajeer here and wouldn’t be shocked to see the latter to come out on top. His first three runs this preparation have him set to peak out to 3200 metres fourth up. Although failing to fire in the Melbourne Cup (3200 metres) he’s a winner over 2800 metres and boasts a narrow second to Master Of Reality. Drawn inside and will require luck in running.
Third – Raheen House $8
Impressed winning at odds last start over 2600 metres after being well held behind Young Rascal in the Manion Cup. There’s no doubt he’ll stay the trip but will need to improve significantly to get the better of Young Rascal, who’s had his measure by five lengths or more on both occasions.
Fourth – The Chosen One $17
Was well beaten by Raheen House last start over 2600 metres but might’ve been too wet for his liking. Prior to that he wasn’t all too far off Young Rascal and is sure to appreciate 3200 metres off the back of his Melbourne Cup, which saw him only beaten by five lengths. Expect him to improve sharply and can battle it out for third.
Fifth – Yogi $23
Slow away and settled to the rear before attacking the line behind Raheen House over 2600 metres. I expect he didn’t handle the heavy track and will also be improved out to 3200 metres. He will need the pace to be on out in front if he’s any chance. But will get back and be grinding away late.
$50 betting strategy
$30 exacta 2, 1
$7.50 each way Mustajeer
$2.50 each way The Chosen One
First – Addeybb $5
Was enormous first up where he fought back to beat Verry Elleegant with plenty in hand and I expect him to be extremely hard to beat here second up at 2000 metres. Will want the track to be getting into the wetter range to hold out the Japanese raider Danon Premium but with an Australian run to his name and fitness on his side I expect him to be extremely hard to hold out.
Second – Danon Premium $4
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Danon Premium blow these away if he handles the going. If the rain stays away and we find ourselves in the good four range with the track playing fair, I’d be willing to put the Japanese on top. Has accounted for Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux over 2000 metres back home and boasts a first-up second behind superstar Almond Eye. The conditions or a new peak from Addeybb will be the undoing.
Third – Melody Belle $10
Was exceptional last start in the Doncaster where she loomed up to win but failed to reel in the lightweight brigade. Now fourth up and rising to 2000 metres should see her ready to peak back at even weights. I expect Addeybb and Danon Premium to have her measure but she’s a marvel and can certainly figure at odds.
Fourth – Verry Elleegant $7
She’s arguably the best horse we’ve got in the land, but I think the internationals will have her measure here. Has since demolished Mustajeer and Alizee after being well held by Addeybb in the Ranvet. Drops back to 2000 metres from 2400 metres and is now fifth run in and may have lost her zip compared to the Addeybb and Danon Premium, who are fresh and set to find new peaks.
Fifth – Master Of Wine $10
Was too good for Mustajeer over 2000 metres last start, which ties his form in with Verry Elleegant. Is a local on the rise and presents as a lightweight Caulfield and Melbourne hope and star of the future. Now third up I expect him to be peaking but might be wanting further compared to the leading chances. His toughest test to date.
$50 betting strategy
$15 each way Addeybb
$10 win Danon Premium
$5 each way Melody Belle
First – Nettoyer $10
Toughest of the Group 1 races and could put any of these five on top. But I’m happy to be with the beer-drinking, pizza-eating Nettoyer, who put away a class field with authority here last Saturday. She now steps up in the quick back-up but meets easier opposition than she faced in the Doncaster. Will give them a head start again and be needing luck in running but with Glen Boss stepping into the saddle she’ll get every chance to claim her second Group 1 in as many weeks.
Second – Noire $15
Her last two runs over 1500 metres have been exceptional, where she was caught back and wide in the Coolmore before savaging the line against in the pattern. Has since put in another eye-catching run in the Emancipation, where she found the rail and battled home best in the inferior ground. Nettoyer had her measure over this track and trip last year but she’s going well enough this time around to figure at odds.
Third – Funstar $3
Was plain last start in the Vinery but I expect her to be improved dropping back to 1600 metres here fourth up. As the lone filly in the field she gets the 2.5-kilogram weight relief on the older mares and may just be too good. The query is where she maps in the run from awkward draw, which will likely force the jockey to take a sit on her or be posted midfield and wide.
Fourth – Con Te Partiro $16
Tough on paced victory second up in the Coolmoore over 1500 metres before a gallant sixth in the Doncaster last start, which saw her wide and sticking on alongside Kolding. Presents here off the quick back-up where she can roll across from the wide draw to take up running in behind the speed of Amangiri and Miss Siska. Is rock-hard fit and presents as value in the race if they can get away with some cheap mid-race sectionals.
Fifth – Amangiri $15
Was impressive first over 1500 metres, where she led before fading into third behind Positive Peace and Noire. Found herself in the inferior inside ground and will be set to improve significantly from the run. She now steps out to 1600 metres second up and will prove tough to hold out up on the speed in a wide-open race.
$50 betting strategy
$15 win Funstar
$7.50 each way Nettoyer
$5 each way Noire
$5 each way Con Te Partiro
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