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The Mounting Yard: Midweek racing at Geelong preview

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Roar Guru
14th April, 2020
2

The Mounting Yard heads to the beautiful city of Geelong this Wednesday for a rare midweek meeting.

The punters have nine races in store for them, with some progressive horses going around in most races on the program.

We had good weather forecast earlier in the week, so the track could get into the ‘good’ range, and the rail is true for the entire circuit, which should allow for fair racing throughout the day.

Let’s find some winners!

Race 1

Two-year-old, maiden plate, set weights, 1200 metres
We kick off the day with a sprint race for the babies. It’s a hard race to have too much confidence in, with lots of first starters involved, but I think Kukeracha has come up over the odds. He’s a well-bred colt and the Waller yard always has to be respected in these types of races. I thought he showed a fair bit of ability in a recent jump at Flemington, and he draws perfectly (6) to get a good run either on or just off the speed. Watch for any market support.

Fixated only ran three lengths off Hanseatic on debut, which reads well for this. He ran on strongly last start behind Forever Free at Ballarat, who subsequently won in city grade on a Saturday. He has the race experience, which is always vital in these races. The only query is where he will be placed in the run from the wide gate (12).

Canobie Lea is the best of the rest. She draws out wide (11), but I thought she showed some ability in her jump out at Caulfield leading into this. She’s a filly by Snitzel and out of the Henry Dwyer yard, so there are a couple of big ticks.

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Recommended bet: No. 6 Kukeracha each way at $7.50.

Sydney Cup racing is great racing generic racing horses

(AAP Image/David Moir)

Race 2

Three-year-old and up, maiden plate, set weights, 1100 metres
It’s not a bad little maiden, this one, with a few progressive types going around. Krispy Kev was impressive on debut at Pakenham when running on to finish second and three lengths off Mister Montaro in what was a high-rating maiden. The form out of that race has been solid, with the third and fourth-place-getters both narrowly missing wins in their subsequent starts. He did a lot wrong in the race when hanging off one reign for basically the last 600 metres. He should have learnt a lot from that and draws perfectly (1) to get a nice run in behind the speed. He only needs some luck getting out.

The favourite, Potentia, is the main threat. He flashed home for second on debut off a hot speed at Cranbourne behind Young Liam in what was another high-rating maiden. There should be a strong enough speed on up front again here, and the more spacious track at Geelong should be to his advantage. He draws a tricky gate (11), but if he can find some cover, he will be rattling home.

Sanbuck battled on okay in the same race Potentia debuted in when finishing fourth. He will probably lead and try and dictate the tempo, while Telekinesis ran on strongly and could improve.

Recommended bet: No. 5 Krispy Kev each way at $5.

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Race 3

Three-year-old and up, maiden plate, set weights, 1700 metres
This is one of the better races on the program, and I think the market has got this one right. I sided with The Mockingbird. This Filly only ran half a length off Southern Moon in her first preparation, who finished second in a Victoria Derby. She was spelled after the Oaks trial, and she has been building up to a win this preparation. She ran on very strongly two back at Ballarat over 1400 metres before again working home well last start at Sandown when finishing a length off Translator and Hasseltoff in a race in which it was hard for the backmarkers to make ground. She is suited at set weights and is ready to win fourth up and getting out in distance.

Groovy Kinda Love is the main danger. She beat home the Mockingbird two back at Geelong over 1300 metres before chasing hard behind Thee One at Pakenham over a mile last start on a heavy track. She will appreciate an improving surface and can’t be discounted.

Tralee Rose is the best of the rest. She motored home last start to narrowly miss against Hernandez after being smashed in the market late. Allen will use the inside gate (1) to be a bit more forward and she could prove hard to run down.

Recommended bet: Win bet on No. 11 The Mockingbird at $3.50.

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Race 4

Three-year-old and up, benchmark 84, handicap, 1700 metres
It’s a small field, this one, but it isn’t lacking in quality. I was very keen on Sierra Sue, but it looks like she has gone for an easy kill at Sale instead of this race. Now that she’s out, I’m happy enough to be on Egyptian Gold. They’re going to go at a crawl here, with the two scratchings taking all the pace out of the race, and this mare is the beneficiary. She struck a rich vein of form last preparation, winning three from five, which culminated in a win at the Valley over 2000 metres. She resumed at the Valley and ran third behind Polanco and Mirimar, and the form out of that race has stacked up well since. On face value she put in a shocker last start at Sandown, but she pulled up lame and with mucus post-race, so she had valid excuses. The slow speed on up front won’t benefit a few of these stayers who are only second up, and she could just pinch it out in front.

Midas Prince is the only danger. He ran only 0.75 lengths off Aussie Nugget last preparation before beating the honest Diplomac Jack at Pakenham. He resumed at Bendigo over 1400 metres and absolutely stormed home to finish half a length off Beautiful Flyer. He has a brilliant second-up record and the 1700 metres suits him ideally here.

Shepard and Starcaster have ability but there are a few things going against them today.

Recommended bet: No. 4 Egyptian Gold each way at $14.

Race 5

Three-year-old, benchmark 64, handicap, 1400 metres
Another cracking race awaits the punters here. I don’t particularly like betting into horses in their second race start, but Free Folk has opened up well overs in the current market and I’m prepared to have a crack at him. He trialled up well at Benalla while getting ready for his debut run and he absolutely stormed home to win by two lengths while extending away late at Wodonga on debut. He clocked the best last 600-metre sectional of the day there and won like an above-average colt. This is harder, but as long as he can get some cover (9) he will be hard to hold out.

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Tycoon Bella is one of the main dangers. She was terrific when winning at Ballarat last campaign. She resumed at Sandown, where she was outsprinted to the line over 1000 metres before holding her ground at Caulfield last start. She gets back onto a good track today and can bounce back third up.

Palatial Power absolutely stormed home to win on debut at Hamilton and is right in this with further improvement, while Let’s Get Tramped is another who can measure up racing up on the speed.

Recommended bet: No. 2 Free Folk each way at $26.

horses racing at Caulfield

(AAP Image/Quentin Lang)

Race 6

Three-year-old and up, benchmark 64, handicap, 2200 metres
We get into the staying events here in the sixth. The last time Rakovsky was at this trip he broke his maiden when winning by eight lengths at Sale. He resumed after a long break when being out sprinted to the line over 1400 metres at Ballarat before going to Sale and running on very strongly behind Florida Dream over 1700 metres when held up for a large part of the straight. He looks primed for this rising up to 2200 metres third up and he maps perfectly to get the run of the race.

Jenstar is the only danger. She finished off strongly at the Valley two back behind Coin Collector, who ran third at listed level on Saturday before trying to lead last start at Sandown when she faded late to run four lengths off Jack Regan, who has franked that form since. She draws well (7) and isn’t without a chance.

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King Princess was a good winner last start when breaking her maiden over this distance at Sale. She draws out (13) but shouldn’t be discounted out of the Hayes Yard.

Recommended bet: Win bet on No. 3 Rakovsky at $4.60.

Race 7

Three-year-old and up, benchmark 64, handicap, 2200 metres
This is a pretty poor race without a lot of depth. It’s not a race I’m overly keen to invest in, but Call My Agent is my on topper. He’s in relatively good form and that is nearly good enough in this field. He ran three lengths off Touch of Mink three back, which reads okay for this, before running second and a length away from Sailors Falls. He should get a run either leading or on the speed, and in a race devoid of tempo he could pinch this out in front.

Cernan resumed in the same race and therefore also has the Touch of Mink form before working home nicely at this track and distance last start. He draws out (13) and will have to get back in the run, but he can’t be underestimated coming out of a good stable.

Nirvana and Longclaw aren’t without chances but would probably have to find a couple of lengths to trouble my top two.

Recommended bet: No. 7 Call My Agent each way at $5.50.

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Race 8

Three-year-old and up, benchmark 64, handicap, 1300 metres
The penultimate event on the program arrives here and has a few progressive types participating in it. Imsouane probably should have two wins from three starts after being beaten by a pimple two back after travelling wide and without cover in the run. She then stayed at Ballarat and won well when careering away late to score by a length over My Boy Nick. In a race that is lacking some depth, all she needs to do is get some cover from the wide gate (12) and she will be hard to beat.

Eagle Ridge is a consistent galloper who draws well (6) to get a nice run today, while Overcharged and Shahzade shouldn’t be underestimated.

Recommended bet: Win bet on No. 11 Imsouane at $3.60.

Summary

Best bet: Race 6, No. 3 Rakovsky.
Next-best bet: Race 3, No. 11 The Mockingbird.
Best value: Race 5, No. 2 Free Folk.

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