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Opinion
This weekend we head to Randwick to preview the Group 1 races in Saturday’s All Aged Stakes Day.
First: Pierata, $5
He presents here third up and ready to peak out to 1400 metres for what will be his last trip to the races. His first two starts this prepartion over 1100 metres and 1200 metres have seen him get back forced win and run on strongly. He’s yet to miss the placings over 1400 metres (5:2-2-1) and is arguably going better than last year, which saw him win this race. Although this is a stronger edition of the All Aged Stakes, he’s fit, flying and ready to add a final Group 1 to his resume.
Second: Tofane, $11
He’s gone to a new level this preparation, with a narrow third in The Galaxy over 1100 metres before being the run of the beaten brigade, which saw him forced three wide the trip before running on from last on the turn to finish within three lengths of Nature Strip and half a length behind Santa Ana Lane, Pierata and Redzel, who had more luck in running. He’s drawn superbly in barrier five, which will see him take a sit in behind the speed and given every opportunity to run over the top. He’s never raced beyond 1200 metres, but he’s clearly ready for the step up to 1400 metres.
Third: Santa Ana Lane, $4.50
He’s ready to peak here third up and rising to 1400 metres. Although he’s raced beyond 1200 metres only twice since 2016, he’s set to appreciate getting over ground as he ages. His run in The TJ Smith saw him get back and flash into second up the inside and Tim Clark will once again be forced to navigate in between runners from the inside draw. Although he’s arguably the best horse in the race and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him finish on top, he’ll need everything to go his way to be winning.
Fourth: Dreamforce, $9
He’s an extremely talented and tough on-pacer who will put luck out of the equation and say catch me if you can. He presents here fourth up rock-hard fit and drops back to 1400 metres after two runs over 1600 and 1500 metres, over which he most recently held out multiple Group 1 winner The Bostonian. He’s missed the placings only once over 1400 metres (11:6-3-1) and will put bad luck out of the equation up on speed. There’s plenty of speed engaged, so I doubt he’ll get away with murder out in front, but expect him to put in a bold showing.
Fifth: Bivouac, $5
He got too far back last start in The TJ Smith, which saw him clock the fastest last 600 metres of the race. I expect him to appreciate rising to 1400 metres a distance, which saw him prevail over Everest winner Yes Yes Yes. He maps superbly here from barrier four and can take a more forward sit just off the speed. He gets a 2.5-kilogram weight relief on the likes of Pierata and Santa Ana Lane, which will see him prove hard to hold out.
Sixth: Fasika, $18
She keeps drawing wide, which has been against her, but she steps up to the elite level and is weighted right up to it. If she can reproduce her run in The Galaxy, which saw her hit the line alongside Pierata, she can figure on the quick back up.
Betting strategy, $50
Pierata: $20 each way
Tofane: $5 each way
(Mark Evans/Getty Images)
First: Ole Kirk, $4
I found it extremely hard to split Ole Kirk and Kings Legacy here. I’ve opted with Ole Kirk from a price point, who looks ready to appreciate stepping out to 1600 metres after being caught back and wide when failing to reel in Kings Legacy, who saw a more economical run up the inside. It will be interesting to see the outcome if the roles were reversed. I doubt the bumping duel on the turn done Ole any favours either. Where he maps in the run is questionable, but with James McDonald set to steer, he’ll get every conceivable.
Second: Kings Legacy, $2.60
He was given a peach of a ride by Bowman, who opted to ride for luck up the inside, which saw him prevail over the top Prague over the concluding stages. He’s set to appreciate stepping out to 1600 metres, and we could see a repeat of the Sires with Bowman staying in the saddle and drawing inside. He’s $2.60 here compared to the $19 on offer in the Sires, and I’m not willing to get overly involved at the price.
Third: Untamed, $11
He defied the late drift last start ($2.60 to $4) to wear down Wheelhouse and Fayerra late, although it’s looking like he’s ready to be stretched out over 2000 metres. He’s fit and proven over 1600 metres. On the one-week backup and ready to peak third up with Nash Rawiller staying in the saddle. And at the price I’m keen to get involved each way and wouldn’t be shocked to see him come out on top.
Fourth: Fayerra, $26
This could be the boilover at odds. She was only narrowly beaten last start by Untamed (0.3 lengths) over 1600 metres, and if I’m willing to kick up for him as a genuine winning hope, I have to give the Anthony Cummings’s filly a live chance to figure in the placings. Although I believe the leading three chances have her measure, she’s rock-hard fit, proven at 1600 metres and gets weight relief on the boys. With luck in running she can certainly shake things up.
Fifth: Holyfield, $7
She had the measure of Untamed when they clashed three weeks ago over 1400 metres at Rosehill. My knock is that she was able to dictate up on speed and kicked away under hard riding by Marquand on a Rosehill track with significant leader bias on the day. Although she’s still maintaining a margin on Untamed over the line, I believe he was more impressive running on against the pattern and has Holyfield’s measure over 1600 metres. Tom Marquand remains in the saddle. and if anyone can get the best out of a horse, it’s Aussie Tom.
Betting strategy, $50
Ole Kirk: $20 win
Untamed: $10 each way
Fayerra: $5 each way
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