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The Mounting Yard heads to one of its home tracks this Tuesday in Ballarat, for an eight–race program.
It’s a pretty good meeting for a Tuesday, with big enough fields and some progressive gallopers using this meeting as a stepping stone to bigger things.
The track generally plays fairly and the long straight allows for the back markers to have their chance running up the hill. The track should be in the Good range and the rail is in the true position. Let’s get into it!
RACE 1: MAIDEN PLATE, 2-Y-O, FILLIES, SET WEIGHTS, 1000 METRES
We kick off the day with a Maiden Plate over 1000 metres. I’m happy to be with the Griffiths trained Night of Delight on debut. I thought she showed good ability in two jump outs at Cranbourne when hard held to the line both times.
She beat Miss Blank Place in those two jump outs and she is a horse that only ran three lengths away in the Blue Diamond Prelude on debut. She draws out here (9) which is the query but she looks to have plenty of gate speed and should be able to cross and take a handy position.
Yosemite looks the clear danger to my eye. The query is the wide gate (10) but she looks to have above average ability.
Her last jump out leading into this was a narrow second to Six Shillings who was impressive on debut which shows that the jump out had some depth to it.
She has to be respected and is probably over the odds at her current quote. Wegobam was an impressive jump out winner leading into this and gets the services of Craig Williams, while Foudre isn’t the worst long shot if she can translate her jump out form at the races.
Recommended Bet: #5 Night of Delight E/W @$5.50.
RACE 2: MAIDEN PLATE, 3-Y-O, SET WEIGHTS, 1100 METRES
There are a few decent maidens to kick off the day and this is another one. I’m happy to be in the corner of the favourite in Sessions Road here.
The Hawkes trained Gelding trialled up well in Sydney before debuting at Canterbury in what I thought was a terrific effort.
She got caught three wide and without cover for pretty much the whole race, but still kept coming to the line strongly making up a few lengths in the straight on a track that always favours those on speed.
She come down to Melbourne and jumped out at Flemington in very good fashion when being asked for minimal effort. She draws perfectly (1) and should be hard to hold out. The sole debutant in the field in Bones shapes as the main danger.
His most recent jump out at Ballarat was pretty impressive I thought and he gets the services of the in – form Jye McNeil. Draws well (3) and should make his own luck on the speed. Bellows and Ahika aren’t the worst but I’m pretty confident one of the two mentioned previously will take this one out.
Recommended Bet: Win bet on #5 Sessions Road @$2.70.
RACE 3: MAIDEN PLATE, 3-Y-O and UP, SET WEIGHTS, 1200 METRES
Yet another maiden awaits punters here in the third. This isn’t a race I’m overly keen to invest in but I had Almira Gulch on top.
Her two runs in this preparation have been pretty good for a race like this and she strikes this race third – up. She ran on steadily for fourth on resumption at Geelong behind Miss Leila in what was a high rating Maiden, before going to Kilmore where she flashed home late in a race dominated by those on the speed.
She draws out (11) but I don’t think it hurts her chances too much as she was going to get back in the run anyway.
She will be flashing home. Rebuttal is probably over the odds at double figures. His run on debut behind He’s Run Away reads well for this and I’m prepared to forgive an average performance last start. All the stars align for him from the inside gate (1).
Charm Wing jumped out okay leading into her debut and can’t be underestimated, while Deponent is the best blow out chance.
Recommended Bet: E/W go on #7 Almira Gulch @$6.
RACE 4: MAIDEN PLATE, FILLIES AND MARES, SET WEIGHTS, 1400 METRES
The last of the maidens arrive here in the fourth race. It seems like a two-horse race but I think the favourite in Our Guardian Angel will be hard to beat.
She beat home Nonconformist last preparation in a Pakenham maiden which reads very well for this relatively weak maiden. She has had two runs in this time and her run on resumption at Sale was terrific when flashing home from back in the field to get within a length of Jenni Sox Rox.
She then went to Pakenham and ran five lengths away from Stratessa. She strikes this race third – up so she should be very fit and I expect a much better showing today.
The only query is the barrier (10) but Craig Williams should be able to find her a good spot in the run. Billie De Lune shapes as the only danger. Her debut run behind Dance Date at Warrnambool reads well for this and she only went down by a length at Cranbourne last start.
Based on her breeding she should appreciate the 1400 metres and she maps to get the run of the race from the good gate (5). Bricabrac Julie and Blooming Alice are musts for exotics but I’m confident the winner comes out of the top two in the market.
Recommended Bet: Win bet on #11 Our Guardian Angel @$2.15.
RACE 5: BENCHMARK 64, 3-Y-O and UP, HANDICAP, 1400 METRES
One of the better races on the program comes here with a few talented types taking part. I’m happy to have something on Maximak at an each – way price. I thought she was unlucky not to have won her last two starts at the end of her last preparation when she had excuses each time at Seymour and then at the Valley.
I thought her run was excellent resuming at Pakenham behind a smart one in Rapidora.
She got back in the run there but absolutely flashed home in some of the meetings best last 200-meter splits. She rises in grade here, but from the inside draw (2) I expect her to be a bit closer to the speed and if she can improve rising in trip, she will be hard to hold out.
Igniting is the biggest danger. He’s last two runs when running two lengths off Excess Funds and then a length off Charliese read well for this.
He is rock – hard fit and will get a beautiful run from the good gate (4). Jealice had excuses on resumption when they just went far too quick out in front, before never handling the ground at Caulfield last start. She can improve third – up and in a race without too much speed involved.
Sign of Ussuri is always thereabouts but needs a good steer from Kah from the wide gate (10).
Recommended Bet: #7 Maximak E/W @$8.
RACE 6: BENCHMARK 64, 3-Y-O and UP, HANDICAP, 2000 METRES
It’s probably the most wide – open race on the program and I like the chances of two horses. One of them is Super Girl.
She draws awkwardly (13) and that’s the only thing stopping her from being much shorter in the market.
She only ran four lengths off some good stayers in the Bendigo Cup last preparation, before she was a dominant winner in a similar race to this one at the end of last preparation over 2400 metres.
She resumed at Sandown in what was a very strong Benchmark 64 and she probably should have won the race when being stopped in her tracks in the last 100 metres.
That shows me that she has come back well, she generally goes well second – up and with any luck she will be hard to hold out. I want to have something on Hezafox. He finished two lengths off Southern Moon at the end of last preparation which points to his level of ability.
He resumed at this track over 1400 metres when hitting the line nicely, before running on well over a mile at Pakenham on the wrong part of the track (inside). He draws out (14) but was always getting back in the field anyway.
He strikes this race third – up and the 2000 metres suits him down to a tee. Redwood Rising is the progressive galloper. He rises in grade today but was impressive when breaking his maiden at Pakenham last start. He maps well and should get the run of the race.
Recommended Bet: E/W plays on both #10 Super Girl @$5.50 and #11 Hezafox @$18.
RACE 7: BENCHMARK 64, 3-Y-O and UP, HANDICAP, 1600 METRES
The penultimate event arrives and it’s a trick race for the punters. Whether or not to take on the favourite is the question and I will be considering I need $3.20 at least to back her. I’m happy to be on Gina Lola. She has been up for a long time but she continues to run well.
She narrowly went down two – back to Robe De Fete at Pakenham, before going to Sandown and running five lengths off Affair to Remember which isn’t a bad form line for this race.
She draws well (7) and should get a good run in midfield and have a crack at the favourite in the straight. Librate is the clear danger.
She gets in very well at the weights here and draws perfectly (6) to get a great run. Her run last start behind Meuse when she beat Silent Sovereign to the line who was a subsequent winner at Group Level on Saturday, is a brilliant form line for this race.
She only has to replicate that to be a big chance and if she does improve, she probably can’t lose barring bad luck.
The Regiment has had more runs than Lethal Weapon after the cricket finishes early, but he is still running well, while Horse for Higher is a must for the exotics running up on the speed or leading.
Recommended Bet: Small E/W play on #9 Gina Lola @$9.
RACE 8: BENCHMARK 64, 3-Y-O and UP, HANDICAP, 1200 METRES
Here’s hoping we don’t have to ‘get out’ in the last! There’s been a lot of scratching’s in this and I’m happy enough to forgive Go Harvies performance last time and put her on top here.
She is rock – hard fit now so that isn’t a query and her first few runs in this preparation would see her be shorter than she is in the current market.
She broke her maiden well on a Heavy track on resumption, before having plenty of excuses second – up when knuckling at the start of the race which destroyed any chance she had. She chased well at this track – two back behind Lord Kensington who has since been sold to Hong Kong, before putting in an average performance last start.
She strikes a similar race here and at her best she will be beating these with ease. Ferus was dominant in back to back wins at Terang and Warrnambool, before running three lengths off them at Morphettville last start. He draws well (2) and could dictate up on the speed.
Boots Tarrington and Kipteker are interesting runners but both would have to improve slightly to be winning.
Recommended Bet: #12 Go Harvies E/W @$5.50.
BEST BET: Race 4 #11 Our Guardian Angel.
NEXT BEST BET: Race 2 #5 Sessions Road.
BEST VALUE: Race 6 #11 Hezafox.
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