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Opinion

Saturday betting guide: 25 April 2020

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24th April, 2020
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Here is my preview of all Saturday’s action.

Flemington

Best Bet – Vow And Declare/Russian Camelot $3.60 (Race 4 and 5)
4 unit win
I’m extremely bullish about the chances of both O’Brien gallopers, who look hardest to beat in their respective races. Vow and Declare was superb first up over 2000 metres in the Australian Cup when flashing home behind Fifty Stars and subsequent All-Star Mile runner Regal Power, before a clear forgive run in the Queen Elizabeth. Now third up, rising to 2600 metres and returning to Flemington, that should see him prove hardest to beat, dropping back in class.

As for Russian Camelot, I expect him to prove far too classy in his final lead-up before the SA Derby over 2500 metres. Will be produced to win here over 1700 metres and with the most upside in the race I expect him to win with authority.

Best value – Highland Jakk $15/4 (Race 5)
0.25 unit win by 0.75 unit place
Although I expect Russian Camelot to prove too classy, I can entertain Highland Jakk as the boil over. Although plain on face value first up at Caulfield, he raced back against the pattern of the day and found wet going for the first time. Now second up rising to 1700 metres, he should improve sharply. Returning to Flemington is a bonus, which saw him finish alongside Russian Camelot last preparation over 1800 metres where he raced wide without cover.

Sunshine Coast

Next best – Baccarat Baby $2.50 (Race 7)
3.5 unit win
She was enormous when resuming last start over 1200 metres, which saw her get back and hit the line strongly while lumping 60 kilos. Now second up and rising to 1400 metres, that will see her prove extremely hard to hold out. The only knock is the inside draw but with a lack of speed in the race the jockey can opt to take a more prominent position in the run and if the gaps present, I expect her to be winning and winning well.

Rosehill

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Best each way – Icebath $5/2 (Race 6)
1.5 unit win by 1.5 unit place
She raced in restricted room last start, which saw her attack the line with intent over 1400 metres behind the talented Indy Car when finally seeing daylight. Presents here rock-hard fit and with Glen Boss stepping into the saddle, my confidence is significantly increased. She’s drawn superbly and can take a midfield sit with Boss only needing to find clear air for the filly to prevail.

Back me – Amangiri $5/2 (Race 7)
1 unit win by 1.5 unit place
I expect the mare to be extremely hard to beat here presenting third up, back in trip and finding easier opposition after attempts at Group 1 and Group 2 level, which saw her far from disgraced. She maps perfectly on paper drawing Barrier 4, which will see her roll forward with ease and either lead or take a sit in behind Archedemus and with a lack of speed engaged elsewhere I expect her class to prevail.

Morphettville

Back me – Jacobite Prince $3.60 (Race 7)
1 unit win
We’ve been with him all preparation and are not willing to jump off just yet, although rising in class, his form alongside Garner last preparation is clearly good enough to be wining here. Although plain first up, the key to this horse is letting him roll along out in front, which saw him win with authority last start. Now third up and reaching peak fitness, I expect him to prove awfully hard to run down as 1400 metres will prove no concern.

Back me – Equal Love/Seemingly Discreet Quinella (Race 6)
1 unit
I found it practically impossible to split the two stokes gallopers engaged here, who look the obvious winning chances. I’m possibly leaning into the corner of Equal Love, who brings in superior form lines through victories over Li’l Kontra and a gallant third behind the classy Bella Vella in listed grade. Although set to lump 60.5 kilos she’s third up fit and maps to get a lovely run from Barrier 3 and her record over 1000 metres indicates she’ll prove hard to run down.

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Melbourne Cup racing gambling generic

(PAUL CROCK/AFP/Getty Images)

Seemingly Discreet impressed first up when not fully wound up, where she pushed forward and prevailed. The positive for her is the 5.5 kilo weight swing on the stable mate and presents as a progressive type. Although I would prefer to see her rising to beyond the 1000 metres here, raw ability may see her come out the better.

Best bet multi
Dalasaan (W), Vow And Declare (P), Russian Camelot (P) – $2.50 (2.5 units)
Dalasaan is the bet of the day and should prove his genuine Group 1 ability as he steps out to a more suitable trip at a level. He has lengths on. Warning is the only real danger but 2400 metres back to 2000 metres and drawing widest looks to be his undoing. Although at the $1.80 quote there’s genuine claims to dump-truck him but adding the two O’Brien gallopers to run top three is a nice odds boost to what looks as free as money gets.

Ascot wizard win multi
Race 1 – Blackwater Bay and Race 2 – Hip Wiggle – $3 (1.5 units)
Both knocking on the door to break their maidens after narrow seconds last start. They find themselves engaged in affairs that should see them do so. William Pike to steer both and looks extremely likely to kick the day off with an early double from as many rides.