Surely this is the week!
After almost half a year of toil, and some solid returns last Saturday, returning to the right side of the ledger is so, so close.
Stay calm and trust the system, I suppose.
Alas, we’re off to Rosehill with the likelihood of a shifting track, unknown conditions and the same old, same old of middling Saturday runners against mid-weekers aiming high with weight drops.
The numbers have thrown up all sort of speculators, what could possibly go wrong?
Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 206
Units won: 204.70
Based on one unit being equal to $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends (see comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition).
Race 2 – 11 Rockarosa (one unit)
I’m keen for a little play in the Highway this week. There’s a lot of winners across the field but I think Rockarosa is the best of them. She’s two from three with the new trainer and was pretty good in midweek class already this prep. Slow/heavy is fine and I think she’s the best of this lot.
Race 3 – 3 High Low Bet (one unit)
I’m giving High Low Bet one more chance (I tipped her first-up, blank). She has done little so far this prep but stretches to a more favourable trip and should be at peak fitness. Like Rockarosa above (nine days), she is coming off the short back-up, which is another tick in my book. She’s fit and happy. Miss Einstein is still trying to crack that win she needs (and probably deserves). She’s getting back to an enticing price now. Word for Word is also on the quick back-up after a good run from the back last week, and Statuesquely should improve second-up.
Race 5 – 9 Malea Magic (one unit)
I really like the value with the Taree-trained Malea Magic in this one. She’s been in the mix this prep already. She takes on the boys now but gets the subsequent weight drop and will go forward from an inside draw. Switched has a similar profile and should go well, Mo’s Crown brings winning form and Quadriga can go okay (Coffs Harbour represent) if they go hard in front.
Race 6 – California Longbow (one unit)
I’m not sure at the time of writing whether California Longbow will get a run on Saturday (he’s at the bottom of a long list of emergencies). If he gets a chance I’ll throw the dice at the huge odds. The horse has won at this track and distance third-up last preparation (same-same here), will be much fitter now and carries no weight. Slow track only, will leave if heavy. Apart from him, the imports are the interesting ones here. Spirit Ridge might be the most forward, or even the best of them. Consider me intrigued.
Race 7 – 12 Broken Arrows (two units)
The money was on Broken Arrows last time when he was a close second behind Adelong. His fitness may just have stopped him late there, with that run under his belt, and a 2.5-kilo weight swing in his favour, I think he can turn the tables. No knock the favourite. Superium and Lashes are in the mix too.
Race 8 – 14 True Detective (one unit)
True Detective rates on top. He steps up in class quite significantly but showed plenty last time and gets in well with 54 kilograms. No wins on a slow track is a concern, but he should handle it considering he has performed on dry and heavy. The challengers? Maybe the on-pace types. Both Sure Knee and Murillo are likely to push forward here and both rate well.
Race 9 – 13 Rhythmic Pulse (two units)
The numbers have Rhythmic Pulse clearly best here at any old price. That horse will be up near the front from Barrier 2 and will give a sight. The horse that just beat her last start won at a nice price last week. I’ll be going wide all the way. Bold and Free and Poetic Charmer rate next best, and I have a big question mark – potentially an exclamation mark – on Upper House, who has been cashing cheques beating donkeys but gets the minimum weight in town, and Dolan in the last!
Thanks as always for reading and following, good luck tomorrow and enjoy the day at the track if you’re out there. It will be great to be back around as restrictions ease in coming weeks.