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Opinion
Close enough was not quite good enough last week, with some good things scratched and a small loss leaving me still slightly behind on the year. Speculators unite!
Off to Randwick this Saturday, with the prospect of dry weather but wet track. A lot of Benchmark 78s mixed in with a decent sprint – it all pays the same. This is the week (I said that last week).
Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 213
Units won: 210.10
Based on one unit being equal to $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends (see comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition).
Race 3 – 10 Star of Harada (one unit)
I’ll kick off with a mudlark and see where I stand. Star of Harada is four from four on heavy and has won his last two, is in career best form at his new stable and shapes to get a lovely spot just off the speed. A few of these are due. Broken Arrows has Adelong form that gets better all the time, while Witherspoon could lead them a merry dance again but has to lump extra weight.
Race 4 – 5 Guise (two units)
This is a tricky little 2000-metre race. I’m happy to roll with Guise at the big price. His soft/heavy form is the best of this lot and after two admittedly ordinary runs so far this preparation, he gets out to a suitable distance and should be fitter. Tip around for Mount Popa, an interesting runner having his second start down under. Humbolt Current is due but probably needs a drier track to win.
Race 5 – 3 Handle the Truth (one unit)
This is the best race of the day with plenty of group racers taking a step down looking for a winter win. Handle the Truth can be tough to catch, but (finally) gets to 1200 metres here where he’s five from nine, and he has the heavy form if the track is as planned. He’s undefeated from his two goes in the bog.
Race 6 – 9 Threeood (three units)
I’m hoping Threeood goes on with it here. This horse has been excellent in this class this prep and went to the midweeks for an easy kill recently. This horse is racing consistently and gets through the wet. She’s the best of the day. If I had to name a challenger I’d start with Sweeping Statement, a filly who has won her last two for the Waller yard.
Race 7 – 9 Monte Ditto (one unit)
I backed the Ditto last time when he flew late but just missed. I’m backing him again today, ditto I suppose, except the result hopefully. I’m happy to take on the favourite Superium, whose wins are all on dry and carries the grandstand. I had Ragged Rascal as the main danger.
Race 8 – 13 Orcein (one unit)
I’m making a captain’s call here against the grain. Orcein has no wet form but is the value pick in a tough race. Convinced is right in the market but was done on merit the last time the two met, and Orcein meets him two kilos to the good for that. The track condition is one of many variables, but I’m happy to take the big price. Chocolatier has a heavy win and rates well. Agassi is in the mix.
Race 9 – 14 All But Gone (one unit)
What a name for a 60-1 shot in the last! With the gun horses scratched and some big weights, I’ve landed on a Wyong-trained eight-year-old with a habit for bad starts. If you’re that way inclined, Dolan rides! Of the rest, High Low Bet shapes to break my heart and Juventus is running well but wants a slow track. Trust the system!
Good luck, as always – bet wide and bet often. Fingers crossed this time next week I’m talking to you from well in front.
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