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Opinion

The one big problem with NRL expansion

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Roar Rookie
24th June, 2020
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With confirmation that the NRL is keen on a second Brisbane team to enter the competition, all the attention has been on the various bids as each jostles to be the next franchise admitted to the competition.

We can all agree that a second team in Brisbane is well overdue. The nine Sydney clubs host around 100 home games each year. Brisbane, with just the Broncos, hosts 12.

However, there is another conundrum that the NRL must solve regardless of which franchise becomes lucky number 17, and that is where do the players come from?

Each club currently has a roster of 30 players. That’s a total talent pool of 480 NRL-quality players among the 16 clubs.

When you look at results after the first six rounds, it’s starting to become clear that there is a big gap between the top eight teams and the teams in the bottom eight. In fact, with the Tigers taking up the customary position of ninth spot, I can’t see any team from the bottom half of the ladder forcing their way into the top eight.

Harry Grant looks on

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Realistically, in any given year only ten to 12 teams have any genuine hope of making the top eight. Teams that find themselves at the bottom of the ladder tend to stay there for several years. There are exceptions of course, but typically clubs at the bottom of the ladder talk of rebuilding, a process that takes years to achieve.

And it seems that any club that manages to get up off the mat is immediately replaced by another team pinned to the bottom of the ladder. The successful rebuild of one club coincides with the demise of another.

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Why is it that at no stage do we ever have 16 clubs built? Sixteen clubs that, while perhaps not equal in challenging for the premiership, are equal in their chances to make the top eight?

My theory is that we don’t actually have 480 NRL-quality players in the talent pool. The number is closer to 360, with the bottom four clubs in the unfortunate position of having their squads made up mostly of the other 120 players.

To emphasise my point, look through the Bulldogs and Titans teams named to play this weekend, and think about how many of those players could force their way into any of the top eight teams. It’s a small number. It’s a really small number. Now do the reverse. That’s a much bigger number.

Yet we need to find an additional 30 players to field a 17th team. I just can’t see that happening. Adding another 30 players will only ensure that the teams on the bottom will never climb back up the ladder.

The only possible way in the short term that the NRL can field a 17th team is to cut the NRL squads from 30 to 28. That at least spreads the current talent across all clubs.

However, it doesn’t solve the real problem.

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NRL generic

(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)

What is required from the NRL is long-term strategic planning, making decisions for the future direction of the game and making the necessary investments in the here and now to get there.

It’s great that the NRL is considering expansion. But they should have decided ten years ago, and made the investment in junior rugby league back then, to ensure there was enough talent today to sustain all 17 clubs.

The 19-year-old kid who bursts onto the scene in the 2030 premiership is nine years old today. We need investment in these kids now to ensure there are development opportunities for more kids to reach the elite level.

The NRL squads should be the best of the best – not all of the best plus a bunch of extras.

Beyond the second Brisbane team there are calls for teams in Perth, Central Coast, a second New Zealand side or a Pacific Nations team. All of these bids have varying degrees of merit.

But without cutting one of the Sydney teams, there simply isn’t enough talent to sustain further expansion, unless the NRL commits to investing in its own future.

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There’s no time like the present.

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