We had a nice return last week, with a couple of good things leading in the slop at Randwick and hanging on. The Witherspoon precedent may just have some legs!
This week we’re back at Rosehill with the additional variable of winter runners possibly getting a firmer surface. I’ve done my numbers based on a Soft 6 or 7 surface, but keep your fingers crossed, with rain predicted for some time over the weekend.
Units bet: 230
Units won: 227.30
The stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
No selections in the two-year-old race to start the day or the highway this week.
No. 9 Monsieur Sisu (one unit)
Go to the dictionary, look up ‘winter racehorse’, and there’s probably a picture of this horse. Four wins from 31 starts, all on heavy, generally at middling grades stepping between Saturday and midweek. I’m hoping the track is suitable enough. He gets a big weight drop into this and might be the only on-speed runner. Fulmina seems a nice horse on the way up trying 2000 metres for the first time. Guise is close to a win and Picaro rates okay.
No. 7 Steel Diamond (one unit)
This filly ticks all my boxes! She wears the Worthington colours like a horse I previously owned – love ya, Sashimi – pushed through the grades with Jay Ford on top and is now showing she’s right up to city class. She’s up in weight the query but should handle the going and might have something on these. Of the others, Lewis rates well on his fresh win and Zing is a bit of a boom horse.
No. 5 Varda (three units)
There’s something about the 5-5 combo (Spaceboy last week). Varda is heading onto bigger and better things considering her first-up win. Prior to that she beat Tailleur and Roheryn at the trials, who have both been impressive winners since. Odds of $3.10 seem generous and may not last. Estrado’s win at the start of June was good, and if the rain comes, her chances are helped. Hibiscus Lady is a blowout hope as well, and maybe Diva Bella too adding value to exotics.
No. 5 Monegal (one unit)
Monegal has been good this time in with a win and a second and stays at 78 grade here. The prospect of a slightly drier track is positive. Bandersnatch will carry the big weight but has earnt it and should run well, otherwise we’re back at my old mate The Cartoonist, who pops up every now and then.
No. 10 Romani Girl (one unit)
Speculation time! Romani Girl raced in good mares grade on dry during the Brisbane carnival and was quiet in her Sydney return a fortnight ago. I think this is the right sort of race at the right sort of time that she can run well in. She’s definitely the right price! Her win at the start of February stands up here, soft/heavy range isn’t an issue. My old mate Dealmaker would be spruiked if it wasn’t for 0-6 at Rosehill and 0-9 at the trip. Noble Boy is the other one that rates highly.
12 Superium (two units)
Just when he’s broken the hearts of almost every punter in Sydney, I’ll take Superium at the chunky double figure odds with the lovely weight drop. A drying track certainly works, quick back-up is a tick and I’m hoping the inside draw is okay. It’s a good race. I have Poetic Charmer, Kordia and Prime Candidate above the others at the top of the weights.
No. 1 Stella Sea Sun (one unit)
Taking the top weight in the last, gets in okay with Louise Day’s weight claim, was a solid winner first-up and has better stats historically with a run under the belt (two from three). Slow and heavy are both fine and 1200 metres is perfect. Accelerato is a possible improver here from the Kordia race a fortnight ago, as is Tony’s Reward, while Monte Ditto is always high in my ratings and will probably go close now that I’ve given up on her.
All the best to everyone, particularly the Melbourne punting crew. Stay safe and back a few winners!