Opinion
Just when I was creeping up on square, the duck hit last week and I’m a further nine units from being back on the right side.
Anyway, confidence levels are far higher with the standard ten units this week, I’ve done the numbers presuming the rain comes and we get to heavy, bring on the winners.
No bets Races 1 and 3 this week (with the two-year-olds turning three next Saturday, I’ll have to pull my finger out).
Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 246
Units won: 235.70
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 2: 6 Lillemor (one unit)
The numbers say it could be a big day for Louise Day, her three-kilo claim really puts Lillemor in this race nicely and she’ll skip along near the lead and shapes to keep going. If she doesn’t win, I can claim the track is off.
The challengers I see are Tardis, who comes to Sydney from up north but is also suited by an apprentice claim, and In Lighten Me, who was excellent first-up but doesn’t have any heavy form.
Race 4: 3 Eduardo (one unit)
Going around the favourite here, I acknowledge Roheryn was superb fresh, Eduardo is a proven weight-for-age group performer. Now with Joe Pride, he’s in nicely considering his class, trialled well and is 1/1 on slow and 1/1 on heavy. Special Reward is the other horse that could challenge the favourite (Louise Day weight drop) but may find 1100 metres a tiny bit too zippy.
Race 5: 6 Terwilliker (one unit)
Another favourable weight drop in the distance race with Terwilliker taking Tom Sherry’s three-kilo claim to get in better than his nice win over the same class and distance two starts back. In that race, he got the skip on Loveseat and meets her better for it.
Chances everywhere, Shangani Patrol will roll forward and likes it wet and Continuation is nicely weighted but prefers dry. Birth of Venus (Waller) and Korcho (Lees) are thereabouts and Nemingah steps down a notch from Grafton Cup standard and is the blowout chance.
Race 6: 14 Lubuk (one unit)
My big question here is does the Highway form stand-up? I’ve gone with Lubuk to get it done (noting he might need rain to get a run), he’s been around the block for a three-year-old with 17 starts. I’m okay with that, his last start win was against the older horses and gets down in weight here.
I suggest team Waller thinks something of him, just before Christmas he went to the Brisbane carnival and took on Alligator Blood in stakes grade. Interesting.
Now the country boys. Leg Work loves the bog and has been good in Highway company, plus being back in his own age group can’t hurt. He gets my vote if Lubuk misses a run. If I like him, Rotherburg can’t be far away, he has the same sort of profile and smashed them this track/distance/heavy last time. I’m happy to skip the favourite and be proven wrong.
(Photo: Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)
Race 7: 9 Special Missile (one unit)
Another leader, I’ll know by now I guess. I’m sensing a bit of weakness here for a Listed race; Special Missile could pounce, he gets to his favourable Rosehill 1500 where he’s two from four and is one kilo off the bottom weight and shouldn’t go too hard in front (Taikomochi is the only other speed).
Race 8: 9 Outback Diva (three units)
Just a fair track, that’s all I ask. The diva will get back, the ‘Day-drop’ gets her in beautifully at the weights, and her Rosehill win six weeks ago is good enough for this lot. Taking on the horses up top with the weight pull, had Rari (the new Tom Melbourne?) in the mix as always and thought Poetic Charmer was a hope based on his fresh win.
Race 9: 11 Partners (two units)
Have made Partners a good thing as well, shapes to lead them in this one and with the Sherry claim (theme appearing), looks a decent hope of making it three on the trot. Zaniah takes three kilos with Louise Day and rates well on that, no knock Varda, she made me a bootload last time and rates well again, the claim for Partners could be the diff.
Lord Zoulander is the other one, he notched his third straight last time and Gary Portelli has brought him to town, another one in the quaddie.
Good luck and good punting, without Sha Tin Sundays please keep me in the loop if there are any good things out there to bring in the weekend.
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