UFC 252 takes place at the APEX Centre on Sunday 16th August, as heavyweights Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier fight for the UFC heavyweight title.
Happy birthday to all the horses out there!
To celebrate, a lot of horses seem to have dual-nominated for the Randwick card, possibly looking to see how they match-up? Then there’s the track, back to the main HQ surface, which took plenty of rain early in the week but has had sun and breeze since mid-week.
I’ve done my numbers based on soft seven/heavy eight. It gets particularly curly late in the day with a few horses that can or can’t run on heavy.
Anyway, ten units to work with, as well as the mandatory Super Yankee. Skipping Races 1 and 2 to save some lira for the good ones later on.
Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 256
Units won: 239.30
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 3 – 7 Kordia (two units)
Start the day with a shorty, but Kordia rates too highly to ignore here and I’m hoping it’s a case of fill the boots and play with their money for a bit later. Spencer is in nicely weight-wise, possible quinella/duet play. Man of Peace is the other contender who’ll lead them up.
Race 4 – 9 De Grawin (three units)
Have made this my best of the day, is two from two since moving over to Joe Pride. Six weeks since she coasted at Nowra, but had an easy trial last week and isn’t here for a holiday, rated on top even before Louise Day’s claim, and then there’s the Witherspoon precedent. For new players, I have a theory that the current winter surface heavily favours leaders over the 1000 and 1100 trips at HQ. Yes, this one will lead. Emanate will go forward as well, shapes as the big danger, Escaped has Clark/Waterhouse (another Dix theory) and will be positive too.
Race 5 – 8 Derbari (one unit)
Back to the favourite in this one, Derbari meets Zourhea a kilo better before the apprentice claim, should have an easy enough time of it near the lead (Mercurial Lad the only other speed), should go close. Convinced rated second, he’s always up there in my numbers but happy for him to win without me.
Race 6 – 7 Monsieur Sisu (one unit)
If I was in the business of betting half units this is likely where I’d start. The monsieur only wins on heavy (fact!), which he should get, he should control the speed in a small field and will run the trip. Kiss the Pride is even money for a reason and rates well, interested in Californiafirebird (the owners lost the space bar), very limited form but is right down in featherweight territory, I smell a sting!
Race 7 – 2 Inanup (one unit)
Inanup is very consistent, gets in well here with Brock Ryan’s claim (I’m sensing a good day for apprentices), loves it wet and the 1100 is probably his best trip. No he’s not leading (clashing with TWP – see above), but hey, rules are made to be broken. Now – can it dry quickly enough for Broken Arrows to be a factor? David Pfieffer did a great job finding an easy kill and dry track for this guy up north last start, he’s in nicely again here but is now zero from five on heavy (with two seconds). No from me.
Race 8 – 12 Capri of Tuffy (one unit)
Today’s speculator. Her record is one from 12, she’s never run this sort of trip, and doesn’t have any wet form. Yes, I’ve been sucked in (again) by the ultimate weight drop. At Hawkesbury a month ago, she lugged 59 as favourite to get beaten a length. While this is a level up, in here with just 49 kilos I’ll have a throw at the stumps.
Race 9 – 5 Steel Diamond (one unit)
Finishing off with my favourite horse at the minute – she wears the Worthington colours of my former filly Sashimi, did her best work with Jay Ford on board (see my bio), had her colours lowered last time but I’m with her for life, and winning so far!
Good luck everyone, stay safe and go wide!