In the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), it’s kill or be killed, win at all costs, and do not let your opponent take an inch from you.
Randwick, wet, same old same old.
I like a few this week, including some old favourites, a logical leader stretching the Witherspoon theory to 1400 metres and the required speculators. Louise Day all the way (and Jay Ford at Kembla obviously), my ten units again lean towards apprentice riders and midweekers steeping up slightly in class and getting nice weight drops as a result.
Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 276
Units won: 279.10
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
I’m going to sleep in and start in Race 4 this week. I wasn’t all that keen in the opener or the Highway and the shorties look to dominate the third, saving my pennies for a lash later on.
Race 4 – 8 Twice as Special (one unit)
Testing the Louise Day theory straight up here with one at massive odds (51 into 26 as of Friday lunch). Twice as Special won’t win a Cox Plate, but she was around the mark in midweek maidens last prep before breaking through nicely. Down at 51 kilos I give her a sneaky chance, and it seems I’m not alone. Torun and Best Stone look like the threats.
Race 5 – 6 Attention Run (two units)
I’m keen on Attention Run over the 1800 in this one, the same trip he relished first up. That’s more than good enough for this. Toryjoy was the only other horse that figured in the ratings. That horse is running well but not winning this prep. I have her a clear second here.
Race 6 – 7 De Grawin (two units)
De Grawin is one of my favourite horses at the minute, and yes that is my wallet talking! That horse measured up fine in city class, winning last time, and even though her odds are shaved this time, I think she might still be improving, in which case she does it again. The Witherspoon precedent (Randwick short-course bias this winter) is in play here, but with lots of speed across the board (they’re onto me?) Athiri and Fanciful Dream could get the runs they need. Kiss My Swiss is a possible challenger up front to De Grawin. She should run okay if she doesn’t overdo it.
No bet in Race 7 due to limited exposed form (2/3/6/7 in quaddie).
Race 8 – 8 Man of Peace (three units)
I’ve got Man of Peace as my best of the day, yep Louise Day again should get a good enough time of it from in front and is in beautifully with the apprentice weight drop. Savacool was pretty good in Brisbane, she’ll give away a big break but might produce something fresh, otherwise the challengers seemed to be the emergencies – 15, 16 and 17 are all in the mix if they get a start.
Race 9 – 7 Not Feint Hearted (two units)
Not Feint Hearted is a funny old one. His domination last start will do the job here, but that was a bit of an outlier compared to his other runs this prep, where he was a bit flat. Fingers crossed he takes the next step. Black Wand goes into my quaddie as the blowout, The Fire Trap and Got Unders are around the mark, while there was an unsuccessful late push for Julian Rock last time, I’m intrigued as to whether the money comes this time.
Good luck one and all, as I said to my punter’s club yesterday, punting trust is easily won and hard lost! Fire through your best of the day and any speculators.