5-0 up, not the worst time to make a mistake like this!
What a return last week, thanks for the comments and feedback.
We’re now well in front for the year, and this week is like Christmas: a drier track, group racing returns, and Jay Ford is on a Group 1 favourite!
The usual ten units are in play. I’ve done the numbers looking at a soft six. That brings a lot of factors into play, particularly in the Winx Stakes, what a race! I’m skipping races two and four to focus on other hopes.
Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 284
Units won: 320.10
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – 4 Home Ground (two units)
Home Ground is now three starts back off an extended break. I’m backing that he’s getting back to full fitness, and the 2400 metres he faces here is getting to his range. On his glory days he wallops this lot. Love Sarge. Desert Path is a good one but is one out of ten on slow and heavy going.
Race 3 – 9 Orcein (one unit)
I’m a bit iffy about this one. Orcein’s runs in July on heavy eight surfaces put him in the mix, blaming his two misses on heavier conditions and taking him on trust that he can bounce back at odds. Randwick and the mile are both queries, but he’s not facing superstars. Frosty Rocks shapes to get a soft lead, New King is up in weight but was impressive last time.
Race 5 – 2 Special Reward (one unit)
It’s a tight one here ratings-wise, with not much splitting Special Reward and Roheryn. I’m going with Special Reward first-up considering he’ll likely be nearer the lead and Roheryn will need to get past him. I do like the four-week freshen for Roheryn though. It’s an interesting race. Old sparring partners Funstar and Probabeel both resume in this and could be world-beaters. I’m just watching at 1200 metres this time in.
Race 6 – 6 Adelong (two units)
I have taken the shorts with Adelong. That horse was so keen to find something to beat it (In Good Time) but everything works: five from seven at 1100 metres, undefeated on soft and heavy, his win over Lashes in May was sharp! I’m going against my own Witherspoon theory here on the great mare herself. She’ll lead them up but might run out of puff at 1100, where’s she’s none from seven. It hurts! Sweet Deal has all the weight here and I’d prefer at 1200 but is class.
Race 7 – 2 The Bostonian (two units)
Jay Ford returns (see bio)! Love The Bostonian, he’s filled my pockets before, and like Adelong in the previous, ticks every box for this. Brilliant in wet, and six from seven fresh – including a great win over Savatiano (winner at Caulfield last week) last prep. I’m interested to see what Ford does here. From Barrier 1 I suspect a sneaky attempt up the inside in the straight with the rail back at true. It’s a Ford special. I’m tipping that he’ll get it done. Dreamforce has the Randwick, 1400 and fresh stats, but would prefer dry and is coming back as an eight-year-old. He’ll win without me. Verry Elegant and Melody Belle are big threats. Fierce Impact, Avilius, Master of Wine, oh boy!
Race 8 – 10 Just Thinkin’ (one unit)
I’ll have a nibble at Just Thinkin’ having his first run in 2020. I’m hoping he’s done the work at home and is ready. Like Home Ground in the opener he has a clear class advantage over his rivals. It’s the right price to see how he’s come back. Yonkers, Kinane and Minted go in the quaddie.
Race 9 – 11 Best Stone (one unit)
Best Stone rates on top in the last thanks to Tom Sherry’s three-kilo drop (no room for Louise Day this week sadly). Drying conditions can only help and her midweek win was good. Zakat is a good chance, Perigord could bob up at a price and Cristal Breeze could be going places.
Good luck if you’re gambling responsibly this Saturday, hopefully the track plays fair (favouring leaders) and our boots are filled. Please fire through comments and sledges as appropriate, as well as let me know your best of the day.