Opinion
Just five rounds remain in what has been, without doubt, the most intriguing season in VFL/AFL history.
In this two-part analysis I will detail the run home, predict where your team will finish at the end of the 18 rounds and look at the projected first week of the finals series.
In Part 1 I detailed the teams currently in the top eight. Here, in Part 2, I will look at what chance the rest have of reaching the finals and whether the Adelaide Crows have a miracle in them to avoid the club’s first-ever wooden spoon.
Currently: ninth (six wins, six losses, 24 premiership points, 112.1 per cent)
Matches to play: St Kilda (TIO Traeger Park), Sydney Swans (Cazaly’s Stadium), Fremantle (Cazaly’s Stadium), GWS Giants (Gabba), Essendon (TBC)
If there is one team that can frustrate, it’s Melbourne.
Having just climbed into the eight for the first time this season after three straight victories, the Dees were knocked out of it last weekend when a disappointing third-quarter resulted in a 28-point loss to the Western Bulldogs on the Gold Coast.
Still, of all the teams currently outside the eight, the Dees have the best percentage of them all, currently at 112.1. This gives them an edge over the likes of Carlton and the Giants.
They have the chance to force their way back into the eight when they face St Kilda in the Heart of the Nation clash in Alice Springs this Saturday night, though they’ll first need to pray that the Western Bulldogs are beaten by the Geelong Cats on Friday night.
A fortnight in a Cairns hub will follow, where they’ll play the Sydney Swans and Fremantle in the space of five days before they return south to face GWS in an away match at the Gabba.
The match against the Giants in Round 17 could loom as a mini-elimination final with the expectation that the loser will be knocked out of finals contention and therefore sentenced to play a dead rubber in Round 18.
They’ll also finally play its postponed match against Essendon, which was originally scheduled for Round 3 at the MCG but was later postponed after Bomber Conor McKenna tested positive to coronavirus in June.
While they should start favourites in most of their remaining matches, one slip-up could prove too many, and I have the Dees missing finals for the 13th time in 14 years.
Predicted finish: tenth.
(Photo by Matt Turner/AFL Photos)
Currently: tenth (six wins, six losses, 24 premiership points, 100 per cent)
Matches to play: Collingwood (Gabba), GWS Giants (Metricon), Sydney Swans (Metricon), Adelaide Crows (Metricon), Brisbane Lions (TBC)
After disappointing losses to Hawthorn and West Coast in the Western Australia hub, Carlton have in recent weeks given their finals hopes a boost, first with an after-the-siren win against Fremantle in Perth, followed by a strong win against the Gold Coast Suns in Darwin.
Their season is now all square with as many wins as losses and a perfect percentage of 100, giving them a good chance to break into September should they continue with their strong performances over the next month.
Beyond this Sunday’s clash against seventh-placed Collingwood, the Blues will fancy themselves against the two Sydney clubs, both of which have struggled for form this season, while they’ll also start hot favourites against the winless Adelaide Crows in Round 17.
The clash against the Giants, which will be played on a Thursday night in Round 15, could loom as a mini-elimination final, while the Blues could also be left with having to beat the Brisbane Lions in the final round if they are to make the finals for the first time since 2013.
I expect that David Teague’s side will give it all they’ve got over the next month, but I have them falling short.
Predicted finish: 11th
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Currently: 11th (six wins, six losses, 24 premiership points, 96.8 per cent)
Matches to play: Fremantle (Optus), Carlton (Metricon), Adelaide Crows (Oval), Melbourne (Gabba), St Kilda (TBC)
Just as it seemed the GWS would make a strong run in the second half of the season, suddenly their finals hopes now appear on life support.
After a disappointing loss to Sydney saw coach Leon Cameron come under fire, the Giants fought to the end against West Coast last Sunday despite being held goalless in the first quarter for the second week in a row.
They will finish their stint in the Western Australia hub with a must-win clash against Fremantle before they relocate to the south-east Queensland hub, where they’ll face mini-elimination finals against Carlton and Melbourne on either side of a trip to Adelaide to face the last-placed Crows.
That leaves them to face St Kilda in the final round with a venue for this match still to be decided, though it’s expected that it will be played at Metricon Stadium.
One slip-up from here will prove fatal to the Giants’ chances of playing finals football for a fifth consecutive year and could see Cameron enter the 2021 season with the threat of the axe looming over his head, even though he recently signed a contract extension that isn’t due to expire until 2022.
They’ll be without former co-captain Callan Ward for possibly the rest of the regular season, with the only chance he has of returning to the field this year being if the club reaches the finals, which I cannot see happening.
Predicted finish: ninth
Currently: 12th (five wins, one draw, six losses, 22 premiership points, 85.9 per cent)
Matches to play: Hawthorn (Oval), West Coast Eagles (Gabba), Geelong Cats (Gabba), Port Adelaide (Oval), Melbourne (TBC)
If Essendon’s finals hopes haven’t been killed off just yet, then they might as well be in the final month of the season.
The Bombers have the worst run home of any side still in contention for finals, having to face three of the top four teams in consecutive rounds while they must also finally play their postponed match against Melbourne which was originally fixtured for Round 3.
This week should offer some reprieve as they face 15th-placed Hawthorn, who will set up a hub in South Australia for the rest of the season, but then this is when things get tough.
In an uncompromising stretch they face the fourth-placed West Coast Eagles, third-placed Geelong Cats and then top-placed Port Adelaide (at the Oval) before they finish off against the Dees in what is likely to be John Worsfold’s final game in charge of the club.
When the season finishes, Worsfold should be proud of how he has managed to drag the Bombers out of the mud, having been appointed coach when the club was at rock bottom and taking them to two finals series in 2017 and 2019, where they bombed out at the first hurdle.
However, given the tough finish to the Bombers’ season, I can’t see them moving up or down from their current position.
Predicted finish: 12th
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Currently: 13th (five wins, seven losses, 20 premiership points, 93.5 per cent)
Matches to play: GWS Giants (Optus), Richmond (Metricon), Melbourne (Cazaly’s Stadium), North Melbourne (Metricon), Western Bulldogs (TBC)
While it’s unlikely Fremantle will qualify for the finals, they can at least provide some nuisance value over the final five matches of the regular season.
That starts this Saturday when they face the Giants at home in what will be the final regular-season match in Perth before the Dockers return to Queensland, where they will be based for the remainder of the season.
Down the track they can also derail the Tigers’ hopes of a double chance as well as those of Melbourne’s finals chances, the Dees having been knocked out of the top eight by way of their 28-point loss to the Western Bulldogs.
Justin Longmuir’s side can also stop the Dogs from entering the eight should the men from Footscray find themselves just outside the eight going into the final round. Before that, they face North Melbourne in the penultimate round in a winnable match for the Purple Haze.
In the end I see no change to the Dockers’ current placing of 13th.
Predicted finish: 13th
Currently: 14th (four wins, one draw, eight losses, 94.1 per cent)
Matches to play: North Melbourne (Metricon), BYE, Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Collingwood (Gabba), Hawthorn (TBC)
Well, we’ve heard this story over and over again.
After a bright start to the season which led many to believe that the Gold Coast Suns could reach the finals for the first time in their history, the club has fallen into a heap, losing seven of their past nine matches to drop to 14th place on the ladder.
The only non-losses they’ve had in that period were beating the Sydney Swans at the SCG in Round 7, while they were pegged to a draw against Essendon in Round 11.
This coincided with a cruel season-ending shoulder injury suffered by Rising Star favourite Matt Rowell in Round 5, but the club’s other rookies, namely Noah Anderson, Connor Budarick and Izak Rankine, have shown signs of their potential throughout the losing run.
Their best chances of a victory or two in the final five rounds will come when they face North Melbourne this Sunday and against Hawthorn in the final round with a venue for that match still to be decided.
In between, they’ll face the Brisbane Lions in a mid-week QClash, as well as a Monday night showdown against Collingwood, both at the Gabba, meaning they won’t leave south-east Queensland for at least the next few weeks.
While the Suns should beat the Kangaroos, the club’s faint finals hopes should officially be killed off when they face the Lions after their Round 15 bye.
Predicted finish: 15th
(Photo by Chris Hyde/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Currently: 15th (four wins, eight losses, 16 premiership points, 82.7 per cent)
Matches to play: Essendon (Oval), Adelaide Crows (Oval), St Kilda (Metricon), Western Bulldogs (Oval), Gold Coast Suns (TBC)
Seven losses in their past eight matches have all but ensured that Hawthorn, the most successful club of the past decade, will miss the finals for the third time in four seasons.
This was the end of an era Hawks fans had been dreading for a while, and sadly that time has come.
With that in mind, Alastair Clarkson will look to start preparations for his club’s 2021 season in earnest over the final month, during which they will hub in South Australia where they’ll also even play a home match against the Adelaide Crows.
But first thing’s first – they’ll face bitter rivals Essendon for the first time since the events of Pinchgate last year, while they’ll also travel to Queensland for the first time this year in Round 16 when they face St Kilda on the Gold Coast.
They then finish off against the Western Bulldogs in Adelaide, and then the Gold Coast Suns with a venue for that match still to be decided.
I have the Hawks beating the Crows and Suns, and that will be enough to see them move up one place to 14th place on the ladder, meaning it will be their worst season since 2005.
Predicted finish: 14th
(Dylan Burns/AFL Photos)
Currently: 16th (four wins, eight losses, 16 premiership points, 81.7 per cent)
Matches to play: Port Adelaide (Oval), Melbourne (Cazaly’s Stadium), Carlton (Metricon), Brisbane Lions (Cazalys), Geelong Cats (TBC)
It’s been a long time since anyone has said this, but season 2020 has undoubtedly been a season from hell for the Sydney Swans.
Having lost so much playing experience last year, the club has been left with only three remnants from its 2012 premiership-winning team and a wounded Lance Franklin, who won’t play at all this season after his recovery from a hamstring injury suffered a major setback.
Just a week after producing its best performance for the season in thrashing their more-fancied younger brothers GWS, the Swans were on the wrong end last Saturday night, kept to only 2.7 (19) as they crashed to a 31-point loss to Fremantle.
It was the club’s lowest score since relocating to Sydney in 1982 and is proof that the club’s long-term rebuild could be very painful.
In fact the Swans have a horror run home, having to face each of the top three teams in the final five weeks, starting with this Saturday’s trip to Adelaide, where they’ll face top-placed Port Adelaide.
Indeed the Swans did beat the Adelaide Crows by three points at the Oval in Round 1 prior to the season shutdown, but nobody at the time forecast just how bad the Crows would fare this year.
They’ll also be thrown to the wolves against the second-placed Brisbane Lions and third-placed Geelong Cats in the final two rounds, with both of those sides looking to boost their percentage in the run to October.
In between facing the Power and Lions, the Swans can provide some nuisance value though, facing Melbourne and Carlton, two teams still in with the chance to break into the eight.
Unfortunately, I cannot see John Longmire’s side winning another game for the rest of the year and they will ultimately suffer their worst season since 1994.
Predicted finish: 17th
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Currently: 17th (threewins, ten losses, 12 premiership points, 81 per cent)
Matches to play: Gold Coast Suns (Metricon), BYE, Port Adelaide (Metricon), Fremantle (Metricon), West Coast Eagles (TBC)
Now facing four straight years without finals football, things could get worse for Rhyce Shaw and the Kangaroos before they get better.
The Roos had gone from winning their first two games, which led to suggestions that a bright future was on the horizon for the club, to losing ten of their past 11 games to drop to second-last place on the ladder.
The only win in that period came against the hapless Adelaide Crows, in which the Shinboners posted the highest score of the season. 19.5 (119).
They’ll again start underdogs against fellow strugglers the Gold Coast Suns, while they’ll enjoy a bye in Round 15 before tackling top-of-the-ladder Port Adelaide on the Gold Coast in Round 16.
A pair of matches against the two Western Australia clubs will finish off their campaign, and there is the chance that the Roos may sell their home game against the Eagles to Optus Stadium, which would allow the Eagles to play a first-week home final while in quarantine should that come to fruition.
I have them winning only one more match – against Fremantle in Round 17.
Predicted finish: 16th
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
Currently: 18th (no wins, 13 losses, no premiership points, 54.9 per cent)
Matches to play: Bye, Hawthorn (Oval), GWS Giants (Oval), Carlton (Metricon), Richmond (TBC)
It’s hard to see where or when the Adelaide Crows’ next win will come.
In the space of three years the Crows have gone from being the deadliest scoring team and near-certain premiers to fish bait and almost certain wooden spooners for the first time in club history.
The downfall that followed their upset grand final loss to Richmond in 2017 has therefore proven to be sad and dramatic, but when the team improves in the coming years, all the hard times will be worth the while as the glory days returns to West Lakes.
On top of the 13 matches the club has lost this season, Matthew Nicks’s side have lost their last 16 games stretching over 12 months, making this the longest period in the club’s history without a victory.
At least they get to enjoy a bye this weekend, after which is followed by an ‘away’ clash against Hawthorn, who will be hubbing in South Australia.
Given the Hawks’ struggles this season, Crows fans can sense that as an opportunity for their side to snag a win, and it could prove to be sweet even if it ends up being the only time the men from West Lakes get to sing their team song this year.
They then face GWS, Carlton and Richmond in the run home, with the match against the Tigers likely to be played at the Oval.
Fail to win any of their four remainders and the Crows will become the first club since Fitzroy in 1964 to endure a winless season, and they’ll also match Fremantle and the GWS Giants in 2001 and 2013 respectively to have a 0-17 record at some point in a season.
Sadly for Crows fans, I can’t see the team get the chance to sing the team song at all this year.
Predicted finish: 18th
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