It is warm(ish) and dry, hello almost spring!
This Saturday we’re off to Rosehill for a solid meeting with three group races, albeit two with a lot of fresh three year-olds – eek. I’m hoping the track plays fair and the winners flow as we move towards carnival time. I have the usual ten units to play with.
Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 294
Units won: 320.10
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – 10 Saigon (two units)
I am obliged to take Saigon here as the self-appointed president of the Louise Day Appreciation Club. The horse is three from three this preparation moving from a maiden to midweek grade. With the apprentice’s weight drop she gets in well here to start the day well at a nice price. A few of my old favourites go around here and could challenge, including Steel Diamond. Dancing Gidget, Vitesse and Savigne (Waller times three) are all in the mix too.
Race 3 – 8 Badoosh (one unit)
Badoosh clashed with Not Feint Hearted again here. NFH was far better on August 1 and has stood up again since, but goes up in weight enough here to give Badoosh the advantage, particularly considering he missed the kick when they last met. Niccochhet rates well and Orcein was good last week, running home well although with my money on him he was due for a lovely fifth.
Race 4 – 1 Korcho (one unit)
I’m thinking Korcho has a bit of class on the rest of these. His last two wins have been good, the dry track is fine and – that’s right – Louise Day gets him a lovely weight drop. It is pretty tightly rated behind him. Monegal is big odds but has been going well this prep on wet tracks, he prefers it hard, while Magic Over the Bay and Pressure get good weight drops and should be competitive.
I am interested in Peltzer, but no bet here with fresh versus wet form.
Race 6 – 4 Sangria (one unit)
The dry track is a big tick for Sangria. The horse was well in the market fresh but ran poorly in the Randwick bog. She might be better than this lot and at two from three (including the heavy track fail) at 1100 and two from four on good tracks she’ll have my money. I’m interested in Destination down the bottom. It is an interesting race for Team Godolphin to throw him into. He ran in some pretty sharp baby sprints pre-Slipper and they might have a wrap on him.
If Peltzer wins earlier I may have a nibble at Achiever, but with gun horses with little exposed form, this is a dartboard job and I’ll leave it alone.
Race 8 – 11 Girl Tuesday (one unit)
The handicapper has done his job here. There are a lot of horses rated very evenly with the given weights. I’ll have a nibble at Girl Tuesday. She recently transferred from the Waller behemoth to Clarry Conners, who freshened her up and has her back somewhere near her best. Mugatoo deserves favouritism and the dry track works. He goes to the next level with a win here. Same deal with Taikomochi. There are heaps of others around the mark too. Maybe Frankely Awesome is the best chance of them.
Race 9 – 1 Wandabaa (one unit)
I’ll bookend the card with tips for Louise Day. Wandabaa was far too good for the other girls last time on her heavy track debut. Her dry numbers are great and she’s won her last two at 1200 metres. There are some interesting challengers. Something Fast returns on his preferred dry surface, ditto Tonsor, Prime Candidate and Tenley. I’ll have Spiritual Pursuit in the quaddie too. The horse is solid second-up and could be the blowout.
Saigon is my best in Sydney, but with three units to spare and a big card at Caulfield, I’m spreading my wings this week. The money is the same colour apparently.
Race 1 – 4 Persan (one unit)
I love the big weight drop.
Race 4 – 8 Morrissy (one unit)
The horse is back from group level and in nicely.
Race 5 – 8 Bedford (one unit)
The horse is at huge odds considering track and trip stats.
Enjoy the weekend and good punting to all. Please keep me updated on your best bets and big wins from wherever you are.