Opinion
Welcome to spring, we got here.
And while a few lean weeks have led to my overall win margin become a little slender, I’m confident of a return like those winning winter days looking at Saturday’s Randwick card and the looming dry track.
It’s getting serious now and Moonee Valley offers an attractive card as well, so I am lifting the weekly outlay to 15 units (possibly extending to 20 around Caulfield Cup time – oh my). Let’s get cracking!
Units bet: 304
Units won: 322.30
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – 6 Jay Jay D’Ar (one unit)
A speculator to start, Jay Jay D’Ar is three from 11 on dry and none from ten in the slop, yet Team Waller kept him going in the winter slop? He even went close a few times when the run suited, back on the dry here I think he’s a silly price and might get me off to a flyer. Harto is the spruik horse coming back off a ten-month break, Athiri was good first-up and Buckin’ Beauty will give them something to catch at odds.
Race 3 – 8 Giovanna Run (two units)
I am sticking with Team Waller (numbers don’t lie) for this one and taking Giovanna Run, who won well when leading in late July and might have a class edge on the others at Benchmark 72 level. Heart of Oak has run eighth at Group 1 level and was good fresh, Raison D’Etre won her maiden in good style, and Escaped is a good’un.
Race 5 – Kinane (three units)
Making Kinane my best today. He’s the one going on to bigger and better things and while he may still not be completely wound up or at his best trip, I have him taking care of these, even with the jockey riding half a kilo over. The terrible draw means he will likely come from near last but he came home nicely fresh and the extra 100 metres will help. Masaff is the main threat. He beat Kinane with the better draw last time and shapes to get a good run again here, while Just Thinkin’ will be the one they’re chasing late.
Race 6 – 1 Dame Giselle (one unit)
Dame Giselle is beautifully placed here at set weights and can go with it in this one after a good first-up win. Hungry Heart beat the dame in the Slipper so must be some hope, La Vernazza pops over from NZ and has me interested, while Redoute’s Image has drawn wide again but has talent.
Race 7 – 1 Avilius (one unit)
I’m believing the class is permanent adage and sticking solid with Avilius in the Chelmsford. He didn’t quite fire in the autumn but still has a sizeable class advantage at weight-for-age against this group. He’s three from six at HQ, three from six at the mile and normally comes along fresh. The others? I struggled to find challengers ratings-wise, maybe Wu Gok can replicate his heavy track winter dominance on the dry surface, or Nettoyer can go to the next level. I’m sticking solid.
Race 8 – 11 Greysful Glamour (one unit)
Hmmm, where to in this one? Dreamforce has the class and the stats but was horrible first-up, albeit spending a lot of petrol from the wide alley. His George Ryder win is more than enough for this. In saying that, I’m happy to eat my class-permanent banter from the previous race and have a dabble on Greysful Glamour. She’s another dry-tracker that will be preparing for 2000 metres, but can go fresh and is nicely weighted with 54. These two will roll along, Reloaded will sit just off and was great in the Randwick Guineas in the autumn, Vanna Girl is a chance from the back if the Queensland form stands up.
(PAUL CROCK/AFP/Getty Images)
Race 9 – 15 Ghostly (one unit)
I’m not traditionally a grey-horse backer, but I’ll take two to finish the Randwick card this week. The finale really takes a new look with Masked Crusader out, a lot of these ran against each other two weeks ago (Zakat won), Ghostly takes a different route, coming off a midweek third. Slow/wet tracks aren’t her bag so maybe they’ve waited until now on that basis, the race before that she was a length and a bit off Kordia, which reads okay. It’s not a race I really like but at the price she’ll have my money. My numbers had Starla, Icebath and The Fire Trap the next best.
Race 2 – 12 Ghodeline (one unit)
Ghodeline meets Shandy 2.5 kilos better for her fresh defeat (Shandy $3.90 versus Ghodeline $19). The extra trip and a run under her belt suits. I’m happy to have at the price.
Race 4 – 6 Junipal (one unit)
Great effort by Junipal fresh sets him up nicely at the mile. The horse is down 5.5 kilos into this. He is the one to beat.
Race 6 – 5 Bella Vella (one unit)
Super last preparation topped by Bella Vella’s Sangster win at any old price. The horse goes to the next level with a win here. Shout out to my old mate Witherspoon. She’ll be suited at the Valley, but it’s a serious rise in class.
Race 9 – 5 Sweet Thomas (two units)
I am finishing up with the old boy Sweet Thomas. He’s stepping back from two miles races but is in well with a three-kilo claiming apprentice. There’ll be some sort of exotic with Creedence and Dabiyr.
And if there’s anything left, Sha Tin restarts on Sunday! Stay lucky and good punting, please celebrate/commiserate with me with comments on how you’re going.
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