Finals time. Throw out your form guides, because everything can change in an instant.

It is a whole new competition as we are told every year, and while some results look pretty clear cut, every side has earned their way here and is in with some sort of chance.

Let’s dive in and have a look at the match-ups this round, and have a look at what the underdogs have going for them.

Panthers versus Roosters – Panthers Stadium, Friday, 7.50pm
The Panthers have roared into the finals on a long unbeaten streak, including a commanding victory over the Bulldogs in the final round. Jarome Luai was the standout, as the left edge of the Panthers tore the Bulldogs to shreds, despite being without Stephen Crichton and big man Viliame Kikau.

The Roosters couldn’t have had a more disastrous end to the regular season, with a record-breaking loss over rivals South Sydney. The Rabbitohs have been very good at times in 2020, but this was unprecedented. While the Roosters lost very little in real terms – they still finish in the top four, and now don’t have to travel to Brisbane to take on the Storm – the loss could damage their mindset ahead of a finals campaign.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

The Panthers are favourites in this simply because they have to be. They haven’t lost in so long, they are the minor premiers and they have earned the right to play out at Panthers Stadium. But if the Roosters didn’t lose in such remarkable circumstances last week, they would have gone in as favourites. They are the defending premiers, after all.

Why the Roosters can win
This is the game that the Panthers’ detractors have been waiting for. The tag of youth and inexperience in terms of the finals is the question that hangs over this team. Yes, they have an incredible winning streak, and the minor premiership, but this is different territory. The Roosters are seasoned veterans in the finals. The loss last week could well be the catalyst for a stellar performance. They will be embarrassed into action, and as Trent Robinson has said, they haven’t become bad players overnight.

On Friday they will welcome the return of Brett Morris, Joey Manu and Isaac Liu. Manu and Morris have 20 tries, 11 try assists and 26 line breaks between the two of them. While the Tricolours will be without Jake Friend for this clash, they have named Freddy Lussick to replace him. They will at the very least be able to prepare this week with some stability and clarity around the make-up of the team on Friday.

This could and should be the match of Week 1. The young punk Panthers are searching for the credibility and challenge they need, while the Roosters are looking to strike back from a match they would rather forget. As it always in the finals, a win in Week 1 in the top four is a massive step towards the premiership. The Roosters look like they need the week off more badly if they want to make it a three-peat. The Panthers have looked fit and fresh all of 2020, and no one is going to want to take them on after a week off, and away from home.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

This will be as close as it gets. It is a perfect time to bring up the last time these two clashed in a finals series. That night in 2014 it was first versus fourth too, except the roles were reversed, the Roosters having won the minor premiership and trying to defend their title. Jamie Soward would pull out a trio of plays to get the win for the Panthers in the dying stages, giving them the week off. It could be equally as close this weekend, as a team coming off a real run of glory takes on one looking to create a dynasty of their own.

Raiders versus Sharks – GIO Stadium, Saturday, 5.40pm
It is Groundhog Day. These two took on each other at virtually the same time last week, the Raiders walking away victors in a high-scoring 38-28 affair. Ricky Stuart took a gamble, and he won. Leaving most of his first grade squad out, he entrusted a second-string side to get the job done and give them a chance of a top-four finish.

With the top-four spot resting on the Tigers upsetting the Eels, something they ultimately couldn’t do, the Raiders now have a fresh team ready to start their finals campaign.

(Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)

Outside the top four, the Raiders and now the Rabbitohs look like they have the footy in them on their day to win a premiership. The Raiders get the first leg of their campaign at home, against a side they just beat, and that looks to be making up the numbers.

The Sharks were also depleted last week with a mixture of injury, suspension and John Morris opting to rest players, rendering them virtually unrecognisable too. The loss of Shaun Johnson two weeks ago looks to have doomed the Sharks. He has been their most dangerous attacking threat in 2020, and without him the Sharks don’t look to have the points to make any serious dent in the finals.

Why the Sharks can win
To draw too many conclusions about this clash based on last weekend is fraught with danger. The sides look very different heading into this week, and while the Raiders can be proud of the win, they shouldn’t be using it to affirm anything. The week off that Ricky Stuart gave most of his stars was a wise move with no week off between here and the grand final for the Green Machine if they were to make it.

What the rest could do is breed a sense of complacency and confidence in the Raiders, that this is just a token gesture in Week 1, being such heavy favourites and well aware of the Sharks’ struggles. In eight of their last ten, the Raiders have conceded the first try, and in some games against lesser opposition have let leads grow on them before reeling teams back in, namely the Bulldogs and Warriors at home.

If the Sharks are going to win this, they need to continue this trend against the Raiders and get in front. Whatever it takes for them to get the first try, they need to do it. They also need to discover the Sharks of old. For seasons now the Sharks have built a reputation on scrapping their way to a victory.

(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

It isn’t always flashy or fun, but the Sharks could squeeze the life out of their opposition. We haven’t seen that much this year. They will also need a big game from returning halfback Chad Townsend, who after a lengthy suspension needs to stand up.

The Raiders are favourites for good reason. But this is finals footy, and the Sharks will like the underdogs tag.

Storm versus Eels – Suncorp Stadium, Saturday, 7.50pm
They were in the top four, then out, then back in again. The Eels’ final-round match against the Tigers was some heart-attack stuff, with the Eels building up a good lead, the Tigers taking it right back off them, and the Eels scoring a couple of tries late in the contest to seal a third-place finish. The reward? A trip to Queensland to take on finals heavyweights the Melbourne Storm.

They have been panned as the worst top-four team by more than a few. After a good start to the year, the Eels have only just managed to keep the wins ticking over to finish third, with some less-than-convincing footy. The Storm got the luxury of resting a host of stars last week, who could put their feet up on the Sunshine Coast, knowing the match against the Dragons on Sunday afternoon meant nothing towards their finals campaign.

(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

Why the Eels can win
You can stumble at the back end of the season, but in the end a few good performances can be what it comes down to. The Cowboys in 2017 had to hope the Dragons lost in the final round to be part of September. They were busted at the end of the year, and ultimately their finals fate wasn’t even up to them.

But a Dragons slip-up was the golden ticket they needed, and for three consecutive weeks they would win against the odds to book a grand final berth. The Eels may have looked cooked up until now, but they have one mandate and that is to go out and play the game of their lives on Saturday and be one game away from a grand final.

We have seen in preliminary finals in the past that the team that has had the week off starts slowly. The Storm could suffer the same sort of sluggishness as a result of the week off. It is just an unusual preparation for some in an unusual year. While it should have a good effect, there could be side effects. They may start slow, and that is exactly what the Eels want. They are a team that can get on a roll and post points quickly and they need to do that.

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

The Storm like to get in front and stay there, if they get up by 12 or so the Eels won’t be coming back. They need to get on the board early and rattle the Storm. They also need big games from their big men, Junior Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard. They are a team that played their best footy at the start of the year with these two getting a roll on.

The Eels also get Dylan Brown back for this one. He is a big inclusion. Against the Tigers and Cowboys, the Storm conceded eight tries in two weeks at home. This doesn’t sound like a big stat, but it is for the Storm. That is a big defensive lapse for them, particularly their right edge. Maika Sivo and Michael Jennings will be the key in attack for the Eels.

Like the Sharks, the Eels will be happy to be underdogs. There are chinks in the Storm’s armour, but they will have to be very good to exploit them.

Rabbitohs versus Knights – ANZ Stadium, Sunday, 4pm
The Rabbitohs, coming off a 52-point win, play the Knights, coming off a 30-point loss. On that alone, how could you go past the Rabbitohs? The Knights played themselves out of a home final last week against the Titans. They couldn’t have been much worse, and with the Rabbitohs getting the result against the Roosters, instead of being played in the Hunter, this game will be played at ANZ Stadium.

Trying to draw a form line for these two is just about impossible. We thought the Rabbitohs were coming for the top four when they beat the Eels 38-0. A week later they would fall to the Storm though, then bumble through with a narrow victory against the Tigers, and incredibly be beaten by the lowly Bulldogs. Rounding out five weeks of to hell and back was the big win over arch rivals the Roosters.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

The Knights aren’t much better. In the last five weeks they have won twice with an average margin of 26. They have lost three times, each time by 30. When they are good, they turn it on. When they are bad, they are awful.

Why the Knights can win
The Knights can win because the Rabbitohs can be guilty of the exact same flaws. The Rabbitohs have lost some games they should have quite comfortably won this year simply because they don’t turn up with the right attitude. Case in point is the Bulldogs loss just a couple of weeks ago.

If they spend the week reading headlines about how good they are and expect that in finals footy that it’s just going to happen for them, the Knights could get away with it. You win games of footy by 50 because you are great, but the opposition equally has to be awful. Whatever happened to the Roosters the other day, they were a shell of themselves.

The Rabbitohs aren’t in the top four because their worst and best are so far apart. Much like the Knights, you can’t have any certainty over which team is going to turn up.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

A dry track and a warm arvo could turn this into a shoot-out. The Knights can score points in a hurry, almost always off the back of Kalyn Ponga.

He should be embarrassed by last week and primed for a big one. Few other teams feel the influence of a player as much as the Knights do with Kalyn Ponga. If the Rabbitohs don’t shut him down, the Knights could make a game of it.

So there it is. Some big favourites and some long odds in this first week of finals. Do any of the outsiders have hope this weekend? Or will it be a predictable start to the 2020 campaign?