After a couple of seasons of blistering-hot form with my annual fearless predictions, I think I’ll come falling back to earth with an almighty thud this year.
The Roosters will smash the Raiders tonight.
They’re hurting and they’ve got a point to prove. Not only do they have a final to win they’ve got a reputation to uphold after losing at the death last week and the trouncing by the Rabbits the week before.
I love it when a favourite or ‘top’ team loses two weeks on the trot.
That’s when you look for them to get back on it. It’s when champions respond and just as the odds are going out in your favour to take them on!
They’ll be looking for a good solid win by plenty to regain some momentum into the prelim vs Storm next week – so expect a ruthless performance right up until the 80th minute.
Meanwhile, the Raiders are tired.
It’s been a much tougher season for them than most. No home games in those early rounds and having to do those long days of travelling – then the injuries kicked in. They are significant injuries.
It’s meant the rest of the team has had to work extra hard to make up for the missing key players.
Josh Hodgson is the biggest one of them all. The injured Englishman is often the difference for the Raiders in close games and without him – it’ll be extremely difficult for the Canberra side should the Roosters hold any sort of a lead in the last 20 minutes. That’s when you expect a blowout.
Jake Friend returning will make a huge difference for the Roosters as will returning to their beloved SCG home ground. Expect Sonny Bill Williams to come on for the last 20 minutes to do his offload magic and suck the life out of the Raiders defence.
They’ll want to atone for the loss to the Raiders here in Round 10 too but the Raiders were a different outfit then.
Let’s also not forget the personal coaching battle. Trent Robinson would love nothing more than put a big score onto Ricky Stuart.
ROOSTERS vs RAIDERS
I’m calling for a rout and this is the way to play it with a leveraged ratio portfolio as follows:
If your number is $100 (the average bet size on sport in Australia is a little over $50 and on average a sports punter bets a little over twice a week so the average weekly layout is $100. If you’re doing more than that you might be over trading.)
$40 at $1.95 Roosters to beat the line 6.5
$30 at $2.70 Roosters Win Both Halves
$10 at $2.80 Roosters by 13+
$10 at $4.20 Roosters by 19+
$5 at $10 Roosters by 30+
$5 at $101 (!) Roosters by 50+
EELS vs RABBITOHS
I’m just itching to take on the inconsistent Rabbitohs.
As good as they were last week – well one player really, they could be just as bad the next they’ve proven that all season and that was WITH Latrell. Newcastle and Mitchell Pearce in particular were woeful last week. Eels I know have their own problems too I get that and they also are too unreliable so I’ll have to pass this week having got the Rabbits wrong last week. I might be missing something. If you do decide to back the Eels at the tasty $2.85, please put half your stake with the line at six points so if it’s close and they just lose at least you get your money back.
Oakesy has been trading in sport for more than 20 years. He believes research is the key to betting. “If you’re going to have a bet don’t ‘gamble.’ Gambling is just a game of chance like the toss of a coin. If you can’t back your bet with good reasoning or research then it’s just gambling so don’t do it.”