Dominic Thiem battled back from the verge of defeat to down world No.1 Novak Djokovic in a three-hour, three-set semi-final classic at the ATP Finals.
What a day of racing we have coming up!
There is a fantastic Everest with stars across the track and the classic Caulfield Cup, mixing a couple of imports with some local stayers, some peaking for this and others on their way to Flemington.
I am hoping to go a little better than last week, when other than my new double (you beauty), I was a bit unlucky or slightly off the mark with a few placings and head bobbers going the other way. A scratching involving Louise Day didn’t help either. I am using 15 units across the cards.
Best up here: Randwick Race 3, 7 Matowi
Best down there: Caulfield Race 7, 6 Alta Oro
Weekly speculator: Caulfield Race 8, 5 Gaulois
Dixie’s daily double: Sydney Race 5, 14 (It’s Me); Melbourne Race 6, 2 (Alta Oro) – three units
Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 392
Units won: 437.20
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 3 – 7 Matowi (three units)
I am going hard early with Matowi. He’s been all around it this prep and drops beautifully in weight for this. I have him above the others from the same lead-up race (5/10/11), and am most worried about Purple Sector, who drops in weight after just missing against Prime Candidate fresh (he’s going around in a Group 3 today).
Race 5 – 14 It’s Me (in double above)
It’s Me seems the horse going places and with even luck in running looks the likely winner.
Race 6 – 1 Deprive (one unit)
The old Everest consolation. It’s a case of best horse wins, and Deprive is the class here. The only one I see of similar quality is Standout. If he finds his best, it’s game on.
The Everest – 11 Libertini (one unit)
Everest time – what a beauty. My tip is purely weather dependent. If dry (good four at worst), Libertini is the fastest horse in the contest, and a great price. If slow or worse, that all changes and Classique Legend is the way to go. I’ll update my comments accordingly if the track worsens. Nature Strip at his best can be leading for a long way. Bivouac is the other one in my trifecta (box 1/3/6/11 – $24). I am risking Gytrash at 1200.
Race 8 – 2 Star of the Seas (one unit)
I looked hard but couldn’t find anything to beat the favourite Star of the Seas. His first trip to 2000 metres is the slight risk. This horse is very short, but has a big class edge.
Race 9 – 2 Wu Gok (one unit)
Call me crazy, yes I’m still rating for a dry track, and Wu Gok’s dry form still has him on top against this lot. His Chelmsford run on a hard track was good. He’ll be up near the speed and gets to his preferred distance. Attorney and She’s Ideel were next best and the shorter way home.
Race 10 – 15 Alison of Tuffy (one unit)
The day bottoms out a fair bit with this pack, but I’m taking the win’s a win’s a win principle. I’m inclined to have a go at Alison of Tuffy. She’s a risk at the start but is in well at the weights with Brock Ryan’s claim. Bombasay rated next best and is big odds for those chasing and looking wider.
Race 6 – 4 From Within (one unit)
From Within won at a nice price fresh and gets the chance to go on with it here. Fituese is the big threat stalking the speed.
Race 7 – 6 Alta Oro (in double above)
The predicted rain brings Jungle Edge into it, but this horse is in for a big carnival.
Race 8 – 5 Gaulois (one unit)
Yes to the big price for Gaulois with uncertainty about the big wet. He’s three from six on heavy, the mile is his go and he drops in weight after a solid run fresh. The other Godolphin horses are who I’m watching: Best of Days if the rain stays away and Munitions to improve with an Australian run under his belt.
Caulfield Cup – 14 Dalasan (one unit)
Oh boy, this required some heavy lifting. It is a great edition of the Caulfield Cup. I am sticking with Dalasan on good or slow ground (soft six at worst). He was great at weight-for-age behind Fierce Impact, not far off Russian Camelot in the SA Derby at this sort of trip, and gets in so well with 52.5 kilos. Dry-ish is the caveat. If seven or heavy, it all flips around and I’ll go the short way home with Verry Elleegant. She loves the mud and there isn’t much other solid slop form around. Trifecta? Thanks for asking – 1/7/11/14/18 (60 combinations). If the track gets bad though it’s even more of a lottery.
Race 10 – 3 Perfect Jewel (one unit)
I am backing William Pike in the last. Perfect Jewel has been around the mark in high-class mares races, sticking at 1400 this time. She can strike. I’d go harder the heavier the track.
It is a big day, and there are a lot of tips. I am hoping to end up on the right side. What do you like in the big ones? Stay safe and go well – stay around during the day for updates.