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AFL grand final odds: Winner, first goal-kicker, and Norm Smith betting markets

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23rd October, 2020
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The AFL grand final is always a massive day for punters, and this year’s unique decider between the Richmond Tigers and Geelong Cats promises to be as big as ever.

Here’s your guide to the odds for some of the major markets on the AFL’s season finale. Please remember to gamble responsibly if you are having a bet on the grand final.

» AFL grand final live scores: Follow all the Richmond vs Geelong action

Head-to-head winner
The Tigers are slight favourites to claim their first premiership in four years, with their listing ballooning as the week has gone on up to $1.87. Their two dominant grand final performances in 2017 and 2019 are proof that the big day holds no fears for Damien Hardwick’s men.

While the Cats are underdogs, their odds of $2.02 to claim victory, and a second flag under Chris Scott, indicate there’s scarcely anything between these two sides. The Tigers have won five of the last six games between the teams, including a comfortable win in their only game in 2020 and a preliminary final triumph in 2019, but the Cats’ strong record at the Gabba this year does even things up.

The line is paying $2.00 at -1.5, the closest we’ve seen for a grand final in some time.

Norm Smith medallist
He’s one of just four players with multiple ‘Norms’, so it’s no surprise that Dustin Martin once again leads the markets for best-afield honours in the 2020 big dance. He’s paying around $4.50 to create history with a third gong, and should the Tigers salute, he’ll be hard to overlook.

Cats champion Patrick Dangerfield is next in line at $6, but they’re the only two players with single-figure odds. Coming in third is Tigers defender Bachar Houli, who finished runner-up to Martin in both 2017 and 2019, at $12.

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Playing in his 357th and final game, Gary Ablett’s legacy would be perfectly rounded off if he can add a Norm Smith Medal to his already bursting trophy cabinet. He’s well down the list at $21 to pull off the fairytale, but was a popular pick for best-on-ground in the Cats’ preliminary final win over Brisbane.

First goalscorer
Despite the Tigers being favourites to claim the win, it’s a Cat who sits atop the tree for first goalscorer betting, with Cats sharpshooter and Coleman Medallist Tom Hawkins at $7.50 to nail the first six-pointer on Saturday night. The veteran has been a force to be reckoned with in 2020, though his finals performances have been punctuated by inaccurate kicking, booting two goals and nine behinds in his three finals.

From there, though, it’s all Richmond, with the Tigers’ own twin towers Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt tied for second at $8 apiece. Riewoldt has kicked just one goal in the Tigers’ two finals wins in 2020, but is a proven grand final performer, with five majors in last year’s thumping win over the GWS Giants.

While not as short as his Norm Smith odds, Martin is again high on the list to boot the first goal at $11, while Ablett is paying $17 to start his final game in vintage Gazza fashion.

In a major quirk, the last time the grand final was won by a team which kicked the first goal of the match was way back in 2013, when Hawthorn’s Jack Gunston drew first blood in the Hawks’ first of three consecutive premierships.

Odds accurate as of Friday, October 23 at 12:30pm (AEDT)

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