Dominic Thiem battled back from the verge of defeat to down world No.1 Novak Djokovic in a three-hour, three-set semi-final classic at the ATP Finals.
A monster 11-race card has been set down for Mildura on Saturday night, with the first to get underway at 5.17pm local time. Below are a few suggested bets for the meeting.
Race 1, Number 10: Soar
Tay Tay will likely go around deep odds on, but Soar is talented as well and in what looks a two-horse race, he will be better odds. This horse won its first two starts before attempting to lead throughout here last time out and just copped that little bit too much heat on speed, feeling the pinch late when a close-up second. Mildura is a tricky circuit and all three career outings for him have come here so I am leaning his way.
Suggested bet: Soar to win.
Race 2, Number 6: Rising High
I hope that Alex Ashwood is positive from the wide draw and elects to go forward because the depth on the front line is nothing great and he can show gate speed, which he did two back. This horse worked home very strongly from off the speed last time out but if he can find the front here, he’ll take a power of beating and is one of the better gambles on the program.
Suggested bet: Rising High to win.
Race 3, Number 1: Bally Barfly
This is one of the easier races he has contested for some time, so should be each-way odds, likely double figures, and run well. He has the inside draw, and has gate speed, so Tayla French can either hold up and lead or get the sit behind Bottle Rock, who will be the odds on pop. He is hit-and-miss though and at the shorts, I couldn’t entertain it as a betting prospect, so 1×3 at good odds with Bally Barfly will do me.
Suggested bet: 1×3 Bally Barfly provided he is $10-plus.
Race 7, Number 8: Velox Equus
Despite a second-row draw, I am keen on his chances. This horse had been racing well in strong company prior to the severe drop in grade/depth last time out and he gave his rivals a proper spanking despite sitting outside the leader. I am wary of The Defiant, but Velox Equus has the class factor and actually draws to follow through The Defiant. I am keen.
Suggested bet: Velox Equus to win.
Race 8, Number 5: Egodan
He and Bernie Winkle have had some great battles at Mildura over the past couple of months. Bernie Winkle was once unbeatable at Mildura, but recent runs have been plain for his standards, so Egodan is the bet. He’s done a power of work in recent outings, which has ensured that Bernie Winkle has beaten him home, but that horse has had the suck run behind Egodan. There is depth to this event, but with a more economical run, Egodan is the likely winner.
Suggested bet: Egodan to win.
Meanwhile, Group 1 racing returns to Tabcorp Park in Menangle on Saturday. It is NSW Breeders Challenge Night. Below are a few suggested bets.
Race 1, Number 7: Blaster Ranger
Shane Sanderson has done a really good job with this guy, who is looking to make it four on the bounce. The latest of his wins came three weeks ago at Menangle when leading throughout and running a 1.52.8 mile rate. He has good gate speed and they’ll press forward given that looks to be his best chance of a win. He’s worth an each-way ticket.
Suggested bet: each-way Blaster Ranger.
Race 2, Number 9: Alta Orlando
This horse has already gone from $1.80 to $1.60 and he will start shorter. He has lengths on this field. He didn’t pull up 100 per cent after the Victoria Cup behind Lochinvar Art but he’s clearly a better horse than that, as seen in prior form. He has the A1 form compared to this field and on that alone, he should be $1.20-$1.30, so if you’re a multi-anchor kind of punter, this is the guy.
Suggested bet: $1.60 for Alta Orlando is more than acceptable. Multi anchor as well.
Race 4, Number 3: Mach Dan
The first of the Group 1 races comes here, and Mach Dan at double figures is the way to go. This horse ran in a race of this series last Saturday at Menangle where he didn’t really show much gate speed from the pole, landing three back on the pegs and that pretty much sealed his fate. From four, I can see him getting a sweet trip just off the speed and launching late. Odds of $10-plus each-way will do me.
Suggested bet: each-way Mach Dan.
Race 6, Number 2: Captain Crusader
If the conditions are okay for the night, they could easily go sub $1.50 here. The hot tempo should be perfect for Captain Crusader, who has an ideal barrier to use, whether he wants to press forward and land leaders back, or come out and get cover early, potentially having last say. His recent runs behind key chance Bar Room Banta have been very good and each way at close to double figures, I am more than happy to back him.
Suggested bet: each-way Captain Crusader.
Race 7, Number 6: Soho Almasi
She looks a very exciting prospect and is short, but should be winning. This horse has smashed the clock in winning each of her three runs this time in. This horse is clearly running a faster time than what key market threat Anntonia has produced. It will be interesting to see what they’ll do from the mobile, but Luke McCarthy will come out and look to find the front, control things and prove too good.
Suggested bet: Soho Almasi to win.