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Opinion

Is the NRL ladder in for a 2021 shake-up?

Roar Rookie
24th October, 2020
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Roar Rookie
24th October, 2020
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Despite the rule changes and the unprecedented turmoil surrounding the 2020 season, there haven’t been too many surprises.

Outside of the Panthers exceeding all expectations and Manly having a shocker, the Roosters, Canberra, Melbourne, Parramatta and Souths continued to be successful and most other teams continued to disappoint.

Is their cause for 2021 be any different?

Are there any significant roster changes, and how effective or destructive will they be? Will any of the many coaching changes bring success? Will COVID-19 and the 2020 season aid or harm any team’s chance of success in 2021?

Teams rise and fall every few years, and the 2021 season will see some significant movement and hopefully a more even competition than 2020, with several teams improving and not too many teams getting significantly worse.

I have recorded how I feel about each team’s prospects for the 2021 season below. Let me know your thoughts.

Get excited

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New Zealand Warriors
The Warriors may fall back into their perennial underachieving ways, but I hope they will use the furnace of 2020 to shape them into a force to be reckoned with. They showed incredible resilience to compete in 2020 while missing the majority of their playing squad and living away from their families for the majority of the year.

If the Warriors can bottle that effort and desire, they may be able to convert their incredible talent into sustained success.

The roster has always been talented, but the roster in 2021 will go to a new level.

The forward pack has been overhauled into one of the most potent in the competition. Addin Fonua Blake is a world-class prop and will give the Warriors great momentum and some additional second-phase play. Over the first 12 rounds of the competition he was averaging over 190 metres gained per game, rivalled only by Jason Taumalolo or Payne Haas.

He should form an international front row with Leeson Ah Mau, who will complement Blake well with a more workhorse-like approach, while both boast a high tackling efficiency.

Kane Evans is a strong recruit also. having had some extremely potent spells off the bench at Parramatta this year, he will provide great punch and aggression off the bench.

Jazz Tevaga and Eliesa Katoa provide energy and punch out wide respectively, and Tohu Harris will work tirelessly all game to be the glue that holds the group together.

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In Ben Murdoch-Masila, Jamayne Taunoa-Brown, Bunty Afoa, Jack Murchie and few others they have great depth and power. This is a scary forward pack who will lay an excellent platform and cause plenty of headaches.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Photo by Tony Feder/Getty Images)

The back line boasts both skill, athleticism and size. Their big forward pack will need a rest from time to time, and the Warriors back five is certainly capable. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Ken Maumalo average over 180 metres per game each and Euan Aitken 150 metres. Peta Hiku and David Fusitu’a add another 110 plus metres per game.

The Warriors will be very hard to pin in their own half. Aitken’s tackle-busting ability and defence – 91 per cent tackle efficiency for a centre is exceptional – will be great assets also. All can certainly find the line as well.

It will come down to the halves and hooker, who will both have a great platform to work from and a potent back line at their disposal. The hooker position is probably their greatest weakness, and they should have a crack at bringing Brandon Smith back to New Zealand. Halves Chanel Harris-Tavita and Kodi Nikorima showed great growth this year and I am tipping that to continue and the Warriors to have a successful season.

The other obvious change is the coach. Hindsight is 20-20 but the Warriors missed a trick in letting Todd Payten go. He could have helped transfer the culture developed into 2020 into 2021.

In any case, I am not sure what effect Nathan Brown may have. He has not been overly successful in the NRL in the past. If he can get them committing in defence, there are exciting times ahead.

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Every year most people are excited about the Warriors because they really should have been more successful in the past. I think 2020 will be the circuit-breaker they need, and I am excited by the Warriors again in 2021. I strongly think they can push into the top eight and challenge the top five or six teams next year.

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Gold Coast Titans
The Titans are another team I am excited about in 2021. They showed great improvement under Justin Holbrook at the end of 2020 in winning most of their games against the other bottom-eight teams and elevating themselves to ninth. There is a significant jump in quality from the bottom eight to the top seven or so teams in 2020, which the Titans will need to make up to be successful in 2021.

Like the Warriors, the Titans have some exciting inclusions to their squad and have built a foundation for success through 2020. David Fifita, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Herman Ese’ese are all quality signings who will significantly bolster the forward pack. The pack does lose Jai Arrow and Ryan James, who are both quality players, but who the Titans haven’t got full output from the last few years due to injury.

The middle rotation for the Titans in 2020 was not very intimidating outside of Moeaki Fotuaika and Arrow. Despite losing Arrow and James, recruits Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Herman Ese’ese should change that perception and turn the Titans middle into a formidable pack brimming with talent.

Fa’asuamaleaui brings great flexibility to the forward pack and has shown he is able to play and impress at prop, lock or on an edge in a great Storm team. He will play in the middle with the edges filled. He’s still young but had some commanding performances in 2020. Ese’ese is a smart signing also and has provided great impact off the bench for Newcastle and Brisbane sides previously.

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Perhaps the most significant impact of the new signings is the flow on effect on Fotuaika. He has established himself as one of the best young props going around and will be the forward leader into the future for the Titans. He looked a little tired and injured at times in 2020 but was still able play big minutes, earn big metres and at times break tackles. With a bit of extra help in middle in 2021 he will find another gear and you will see some more destructive performances.

Jarrod Wallace celebrates a try for the Gold Coast Titans

(Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

Jarrod Wallace was also getting back to his best, and while he is still only 29, his experience will be invaluable to a young pack with James and Arrow moving on. Adding an offload to his game late in 2020 – he had an average two offloads a game in last five or six games – is another positive.

Tyrone Peachey played some of his best football in years at lock in the back end of the year and looked one of the Titans most dangerous players. I like what he brings there but can also do a job off the bench if required.

On the edges, Kevin Proctor ties up one spot providing defensive energy, experience and great line running. On the other side, marquee signing David Fifita will provide great potency in attack. A generational talent capable of breaking the game open at any time, it is exciting to think about Fifita linking up with the likes of Peachey, Ashley Taylor, Fa’asuamaleaui and Fotuaika.

With young Jaimin Jolliffe, Sam Lisone, Jai Whitbread, Sam Stone, Keegan Hipgrave and Beau Fermor there is all of a sudden a promising depth of talent as well in the squad, with most of these names who featured significantly in 2020 unlikely to get a start.

The Jamal Fogarty, Ashley Taylor and Alexander Brimson combination grew with every game last year and should enjoy a little more time and space in 2021, not to mention the more potent ball runners at their disposal.

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Alex Brimson of the Titans

(Getty Images)

Brimson will be particularly exciting to watch, and with a better platform he will have even more attacking opportunities in 2021. If they are able to obtain any of Melbourne’s Smiths as reported, the spine could be one of the best in the NRL. Without a Smith they still have a quality No. 9 in Mitch Rein, who can be highly creative.

The weakness is the outside backs. Brian Kelly and Young Tonumaipea had good years in offence – Kelly in particular was extremely hard to handle – but both were guilty of missing a large percentage of tackles. New recruit Patrick Herbert isn’t exactly a defensive centre either. They need to add some depth to the outside backs and boost the defence out wide or they won’t be able to resist pressure applied by the better teams.

The Titans are going to be one of the more exciting teams to watch in 2021. Opposition defensive coaches will be having sleepless nights thinking about how to stop the likes of Brimson, Kelly, Fifita and Peachey, who can make something out of nothing and break a game open. Defence will be key issue for the Titans, and if they can keep that in check, they be in a position to win most games.

The Titans will make the eight and push into the top six. I rate the Warriors slightly higher at this stage just due to the outside backs.

Jamal Fogarty of the Titans runs with the ball

(Photo by Matt Roberts/Getty Images)

Intriguing

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St George Illawarra Dragons
Full disclosure: I am a Dragons fan, so I am equal parts pessimistic and optimistic about their ’ fortunes. The Dragons should be a top-four club. The depth of talent and famous history should be enough to establish a winning culture and profitable club in the right hands (optimism). But they have failed miserably at this since 2010 (pessimism). Hopefully Anthony Griffin can help with that, but there is a lot of ground to make up.

The goal is simple: fix the defence. If they can fix the defence, the Dragons will challenge for the eight. But the solution is perhaps more complicated.

It is certainly possible (that’s optimism again). In many ways this will be a clean slate – a completely new coaching staff, the Jack de Belin saga finally over and some normalcy to return to the word post-COVID-19.

While a change of attitude and defensive structure is certainly needed, some strong defensive players are required to help stiffen up the defence.

The fate of the Dragons in 2021 goes on the line in November with Jack de Belin’s court hearing. De Belin is one of the best defensive forwards in the competition in terms of tackle efficiency and initial contact. With Cameron McInnes, De Belin could lock up the middle while also provided good metres, a quick play-the-ball and an offload.

Some more aggression and physicality is also needed. Of the rostered players, Korbin Sims could provide this if fit. Otherwise, the Josh McGuire could be the necessary evil that would be worth considering. Blake Lawrie and Josh Kerr are both good prospects as well, so the building blocks are there.

The forward pack is a little one-dimensional, so hopefully Griffin encourages the likes of De Belin and Kerr to offload or can lure an explosive ball runner to the club to replace Tyson Frizell.

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The halves are an issue, and I think Adam Clune and Ben Hunt could form a good combination until Jayden Sullivan is ready. Give them the off-season to build combinations and confidence and stick with them. With McInnes and Matthew Dufty, they would form a quality spine. The outside backs and Dufty can score points if placed into more attacking positions.

I see improvement in 2021 and am hopeful of finals, but realistically I do not see it happening with the Warriors and Titans improving more. Look for them in 2022, though.

Ben Hunt celebrates with Josh Kerr

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are an interesting case. New coach, a player cleanout but without any confirmed signings who will greatly change their fortunes. If Kyle Flanagan and Matt Burton make it over in 2021, there may be some life in them. Trent Barrett has a proven record of improving playmakers, but he will need to add something around them to give them time, space and strike options out wide.

Nick Cotric coming helps, as would Josh Addo-Carr. James Roberts is looking for a new home also. Fullback is still a position that needs to be solved, and Addo-Carr would be intriguing at fullback but not sure it is the answer.

The forward pack is solid but depth and strike power are of concern, which makes it hard to compete against the better teams. The Dogs could do with a larger frame capable of bending the line. Raymond Faitala-Mariner and Adam Elliott are the most likely attacking options and will need to continue the development of their attacking game for the Dogs to improve.

There are just too many ifs about the Bulldogs between their roster, the coach’s history and the boardroom to back in anything other than minor improvements in 2021. They will not get the spoon but should not finish higher than 12th.

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Dylan Napa

Dylan Napa. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Revise your expectations

Melbourne Storm
The Storm are probably on this list every year, but it’s not every year that Cameron Smith retires. With Smith they will also lose Suliasi Vunivalu, Josh Addo-Carr and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui.

In Vunivalu and Addo-Carr they will lose not only some potency out wide but also the proven defensive reads and introduce some doubt in the defensive line. Fa’asuamaleaui can be replaced but will be missed, as he did have some big games for them and is a top-end talent.

Smith is the big loss. He cannot be replaced. He is the conductor of the team on the field and I fear they will not have the same direction and big game clutch plays without him. Jahrome Hughes, Cameron Munster, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Brandon Smith have all improved, but they’re all running players, and without Smith I am not sure the game will be managed effectively. With Craig Bellamy leaving the year after, it could finally be downhill for the Storm.

They still have a quality team and coach and will still feature, but I think it will be closer to the bottom of the eight than the top.

Cameron Smith of the Storm is chaired from the field

Cameron Smith. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

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Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
The Sharks were making up the numbers this year and were only there because so many teams below them disappointed. They will get overtaken not because they will get worse but just that other teams around them will get better.

Wests Tigers
The strong stance Michael Maguire has taken has the potential to completely backfire and send the Tigers crashing to a wooden spoon. Although they do boast a strong young forward pack boosted by old head James Tamou, their money is tied up in all the wrong players and they just lost their two best attacking weapons in Harry Grant and Benji Marshall.

Business as usual

Sydney Roosters, Penrith Panthers, Canberra Raiders, Newcastle Knights, South Sydney Rabbitohs
The Roosters and Panthers will remain the teams to beat in 2021 with neither roster changing much.

Souths are the team positioned best to challenge them. A couple of handy additions in Jai Arrow and Jacob Host will boost forward depth, and the back line is potent. They were only one win from the grand final and will be in contention again.

Canberra and Parramatta will also be there or thereabouts, but at the lower rung they may be susceptible against some of the emerging teams.

I can’t see the Knights improving enough to challenge the Roosters or Penrith, so they will likely remain around the same level fighting for a spot in the eight.

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Jake Friend of the Roosters passes

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Bottom eight

Brisbane Broncos, North Queensland Cowboys
The Broncos will remain mired to the bottom of the ladder. With no significant roster changes, they will have similar issues this year. With Kevin Walters at the helm, they should hopefully be slightly more competitive.

The Cowboys get a new coach as well but the roster is still very top-heavy with injury or suspension-prone stars. Paul Green is a premiership coach, so I’m not sure what Todd Payten will get out of the squad that Green couldn’t.

Queenslanders will have to back the Titans for success in 2021 or perhaps wait for another Queensland team to emerge.

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