Ireland have the destiny of the 2020 Six Nations championship in their own hands as a bonus point win in Paris will secure the title.
Yet it is Eddie Jones’ England, seeking another big win in Italy, who are the odds-on favourites to lift the trophy.
That is because history has shown that Ireland almost never score four tries away to France whereas England routinely pummel Italy by more than the 23-point margin they currently trail Ireland by.
Data company Gracenote has crunched the Six Nations numbers since Italy joined in 2000 and found that the previous results of the relevant head-to-heads played with the scenario of this year’s current standings would have left England champions seven times, France three and Ireland none.
To make sure of the title, Ireland need a four-try victory in the final game of the Super Saturday triple-header.
However, in their 45 championship matches in France over the last 110 years, Ireland have never won with four tries. The only time they have scored four was in 2006, when they lost 43-31.
A more realistic scenario for Irish fans is that they manage a non-bonus point win, extending their current 23-point advantage at the top while hoping England won’t have moved that out of reach earlier in the day.
England will play in the day’s second match knowing that a bonus-point win with something like a 30 to 40 point margin is likely to be enough to secure a third title in five years – though of course they will have to wait to find out.
Since Italy joined the Six Nations in 2000 they have lost all 20 games against England, conceding an average of more than 40 points per game.
France would appear to have only the slimmest hope of taking the title for the first time since 2010.
They are level on 13 points with England and would win it if they beat Ireland with a bonus point while Jones’ men fail to get a bonus point in Rome.
Fifth-placed Wales play fourth-placed Scotland in the first game of the day in Llanelli on what is likely to be an emotional occasion.
Welsh captain Alun Wyn Jones will be winning a world record 149th international cap while the Llanelli crowd will offer a fond farewell salute to one of their old heroes, wing wizard JJ Williams, who died on Thursday.
© AAP
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