Today marks six months until the opening ceremony of the Olympics in Tokyo. Hopefully.
Wow, what a day of racing we have in front of us.
If the Derby Day Group 1s weren’t enough to fire us up, Mr Rugba League has thrown millions across the Rosehill meet with a ripping Golden Eagle, an Everest repechage and a Gold Cup over a trip. It’s like Christmas!
As usual the prospect of a wet surface at Rosehill creates a variable – particularly with Wu Gok – my numbers have been crunched based on a heavy track in Sydney and good conditions down in Melbourne.
Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 417
Units won: 448.60
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
It is a slightly different format today. I hope you like it. It will allow wider plays for those keen for a dabble.
Race 2 – 8/10/6
8) Fortune Seeker (one unit): Likely leader, three from three so far in his career, will be hard to get past.
10) Ellsberg: Big weight drop after nice debut win.
6) Colonel: Won his maiden by a margin. Failed at his only go on heavy.
Race 3 – 1/8/4
1) Segalas (one unit): In well with Sherry’s claim, he will like the wet conditions.
8) Miss Einstein: A foe of this blog through last prep, she’s well overdue if she brings her best.
4) Misteed: She finds her sort of grade in this and is best on heavy ground.
Race 4 – 12*/13/11
12) Quintessa (two units): Right down in grade here, she has two thirds on heavy behind Colette (great form for this), it’s her time to break through.
13) Miyake: Running well this time in, although has no heavy track from.
11) Archanna: has the win on heavy and is normally around the mark at this grade.
Race 5 – 12*/6/8
12) Macroura (two units): Showed a lot last prep, is fresh here but is the best horse in the race.
6) Mr Mosaic: Speedy fella boasting a soft track win.
8) Lesage: Recorded a 3.9-length win at only go on heavy, might be a swimmer and has beaten Adelong.
Race 6 – Rosehill Gold Cup: 3/13/1
3) Wu Gok (one unit): The rain dance has paid off, eight from 13 on heavy, his dry form earlier this prep is good as well.
13) She’s Ideel: She’s drawn the function centre, is racing well though and is three from three on soft going (untried heavy).
1) Think It Over: Solid performer in dry, will have the super-sopper out.
Race 7 – Yes Yes Yes Stakes: 7/1/5
7) Star Of The Seas (one unit): Right back in trip, but has Verry Elleegant/Kolding/Probabeel form this prep. That’s A+. Three from four on heavy, four from six at Rosehill. 20/1? Spicy.
1) Gytrash: Super horse, has he had his grand final? Has never run on heavy – although he has won four from seven on soft ground.
5) Eduardo: Another gun, Eddie went way too hard in The Everest. Loves it heavy, but is a query at 1300.
Comment: Great race, 9/12/13 are all around the mark as well. Wide.
Race 8 – Golden Rose: 12/6/11
12) Funstar (one unit): Is her barrier on the speedway? Gate 22, wow (will be 18 with scratchings). She’s been back to her best lately, excels in the slop, and the wet conditions may make the barrier okay.
6) Windstorm: Untried on heavy, is four from six in slow going, his recent win over Buffalo River should stand up. Ridiculous price.
11) Flit: Nice win last start, might be stretching at 1500 metres but enjoys it wet and has class.
Comment: Chances everywhere, Alligator, Icebath, Colette? Well done PVL.
Race 9 – 6/3/13
6) Fender (one unit): Looks like the mudlark here, is back in the right grade and should be right in it.
3) Dancing Gidget: Always thereabouts, the sting out helps.
13) Surreal Step: Probable leader, at his best trip and has won second-up and on heavy.
Race 3 – TAB Stakes: 9*/8/4
9) Octane (two units): Rates well clear stepping back from weight-for-age (4.5 kilos better), it’s his time to break through at 1200.
8) Bold Star: Racing just behind top-liners recently, gets his chance.
4) Kemalpasa: Great 1200 metres and dry track stats, is racing well.
Race 4 – Hotham Stakes: 11/8/7
11) Admire Robson (one unit): Has had no luck so far this prep, should show his best here.
8) Carif: Is hard to catch but could pop up on the dry track at odds.
7) Future Score: Stepping up in grade and trip, he brings a different form line and might be up to it.
Comment: Up there with the Galaxy as my fave race of the year, win and see you on Tuesday, misfire and it’s the Sandown Classic.
Race 5 – Empire Rose Stakes: 14/1/4
14) Forbidden Love (one unit): I’ve been sucked in by her winning time last start, it was a second faster than the benchmark race later that day, and faster than the All Aged Stakes a few weeks earlier. Yes from me.
1) Mystic Journey: Superstar, four from five wins at the mile, eight from 16 on a good track.
4) Pretty Brazen: Very consistent this prep and should be in the mix again.
Comment: A three-year-old filly running 1.22.58 for 1400 metres? Did the clock start late?
Race 6 – Coolmore Stud Stakes: 1/2/7
1) Farnan (one unit): I’m giving him another chance after the butcher job at Rosehill. Trialled well and had the edge on this age group as a two year-old.
2) Wild Ruler: The obvious challenger, that was a big win last start.
7) Anders: I remember this boy Smashing Peltzer and Ole Kirk not long ago. In the mix here at his best.
Comment: The Slipper winner hoodoo? Or will we see the best of Farnan?
Race 7 – Victoria Derby: 5/1/2
5) Young Werther (one unit): Could be anything, if he gets the trip he wins.
1) Cherry Tortoni: Great win last week. Distance and quick back-up are both risks.
2) Albarado: Beaten by the Werther, has won very well since.
Comment: 2500 metres for babies, who will run it out?
Race 8 – Cantala Stakes: 5/10/2
5) Yulong Prince (one unit): Superb in the Epsom, got cut out at the 250 and still came back at them late. Great value here.
10) Streets Of Avalon: Huge odds here, has a Group 1 win at weight-for-age, should get a dry track here and if he can just settle behind the leader he’s a shout.
2) Mr Quickie: Great win last time, good surface and staying at the mile both work.
Comment: Some race! Risking Rock, could make a case for 4/6/13?
Race 9 – 8/4/3
8) Fituese (one unit): Gets her preferred dry track here, that’s all she needs to turn the tables on the Zimbol.
4) California Zimbol: Flying this time in, no knock.
3) Diamond Effort: She’s a beauty, has the straight win, could come over the top.
Thanks for staying with me. There are 17 units in play. For getting this far I’ll throw in my double too: Rosehill Race 4, 12 Quintessa and Flemington Race 3, 9 Octane (about $12).
What’s your best? Enjoy the massive day and good luck.