Opinion
Here we are again. New South Wales have once again scored a try too late in Game 1, making it look closer than it was, losing 18–14 and heading into a win or go home Game 2. In 2019, after a 18–14 loss, the Blues bounced back to blow Queensland off the field with a 34-point victory.
Blues fans will be looking for history to repeat itself and and the hyper passionate Queenslanders will be pleading for their Maroons to close the series out with a game to play. Let’s take a look at how the Blues can even out control of the series and the ways in which the Maroons can stop them.
» State of Origin 2 live scores: Blues vs Maroons live blog
Team changes
Both teams have made a few changes. I gave my thoughts on what changes the Blues should have made – and old Freddy and I don’t exactly see eye to eye. I do think the Blues have got better, whereas Queensland have filled the holes of injury as well as they can and look as good if not better.
Queensland have made four changes to their winning side. With injuries to both AJ Brimson and Christian Welch, Dunamis Lui and Valentine Holmes come into the team. Jaydn Su’A replaces the dropped Coen Hess and Moeaki Fotuaika debuts off the bench. At the very least, I don’t think Queensland lose much with these changes. Welch is great and his impact can’t be replaced, however, Lui will do a good job in the starting role and Fotuaika’s impact off the bench is exactly what they need to match the Blues interchange.
Su’A is a better player than Hess and so makes the starting side stronger and Holmes, though possibly not fully match fit, will at the very least do the job and at best (worst for Blues fans) be one of the best on-field.
Meanwhile, the Blues have made six changes. Though they weren’t the six changes I thought should be made, they do improve the team. Brad Fittler has given his forward pack and bench a make-over and dropped his five-eighth, with Payne Haas to start over Junior Paulo, Isaah Yeo, Dale Finucane and Nathan Brown coming onto the bench and the previous number 14, Cody Walker, slotting into the number six jumper.
I love the addition of Yeo and Finucane and think Paulo off the bench will give NSW a huge impact. The Blues look stronger than they did in Game 1 but, as seen in my ‘Poorly predicting State of Origin Game 1’ articke, the Blues had the strongest line-up on paper in the first game too. Unfortunately, the game isn’t played on paper. They will actually have to play well, which leads me to my next point.
Forwards, aggression and set completion
It’s simple. Forwards win games. Everyone knows it. To win the game, the Blues forwards must win the game within the game against the Maroons forward pack. It is obviously more difficult to do it than to write it, but its a simple truth.
In Game 1, the Blues were winning the middle for about the first 30 minutes and then they fell off. The Blues bench is much improved, despite not possessing a true utility, and their interchange forwards will provide a spark that will stave away that loss of energy and aggression that the Blues encountered in the first game.
The most important reward for dominating the middle for the Blues is that it allows the best running hooker in the game get out of dummy-half and do his thing. Combine Damien Cook with James Tedesco and Walker through a tiring Maroons middle and it spells Blues victory.
One of the biggest issues the Blues had in the first game of the series was their kicking game. While no half kicks well if the forward pack lays a bad platform, the halves’ poor Game 1 kicking performance was not one warranted by the forwards performance.
It seems that Fittler is hoping Walker can provide a running game from the five-eighth position, but the kicking game is still going to be key to them winning or losing. In Game 1, New South Wales made more run metres, had a faster average play the ball speed and made almost 100 more post contact metres despite having only three more runs. Yet, Queensland made 60 more metres from kicks.
This just cannot happen. Both Cleary and Walker will have to find grass, make Holmes and the Queensland wingers turn and chase kicks and give their defence a good starting point deep in the Maroons half of the field.
Left-side defence
In Game 1, New South Wales right and left-side defence couldn’t have been more different. The Blues right-side defence of Frizell (44–0), Cleary (29–2), Gutherson (32–2) and Addo-Carr (14–0) combined for 119 tackles with four missed.
The left side of Boyd Cordner (23–3), Luke Keary (17–4), Jack Wighton (10–7) and Daniel Tupou (3–1) combined for 53 tackles, missing 15. This means that the right edge completed 96.6 per cent of their tackles and the left completed only 71.7 per cent.
The numbers speak for themselves, there is no game of rugby league on earth where it is acceptable to miss 28 per cent of your tackles. The entire team made 395 and missed 26 tackles. The left side missed 15 and only made 53. These stats are truly breathtaking.
With Angus Crichton coming in to replace Cordner and the more robust Walker replacing the slight Luke Keary, one can only hope that Wighton is better and the left edge can match the right’s defensive effort and efficiency.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Queensland can be better too
Unfortunately, it’s true. Despite being awarded man of the match, Daly Cherry-Evans was far from his best and the same can be said for his halves partner and Grand final winning five-eighth, Cameron Munster. If the entire team can improve slightly and these two can combine to be at their best along with the addition of Holmes out the back, there is every chance that Queensland’s best will be too good for the boys in blue.
I don’t think it will happen but I am certainly not ruling it out. If nothing else, Queensland winning all but two series between the ages of 8 and 18, its not to rule out a Queensland victory, no matter what.
The fact of the matter is, both teams are going to be much better for the run this game. Some players have not played for weeks and those that have are even worse off, having either just won a grand final and wanting to celebrate it as usual, or having just lost one and not being allowed to wallow in the pain that they would usually be able til do until pre-season.
With changes to both teams, I think they will be ready to rock and roll for Game 2. It doesn’t get much better than the Blues fighting to stay alive in the series and the Maroons wanting nothing more than to put the foot to their throats. I think its safe to expect a better performance from both teams come Wednesday night.
This is a State of Origin series like never before. Players are playing the most competitive and important games of their lives when they are supposed to be downing beers on the beach. Everything is different this season but Blues fans will be hoping that the Blues bouncing back after a 18–14 loss isn’t one of them.
Reckon you can pick the winning team? Build your own dream team with Draftstars daily fantasy and compete on any match. For great odds on the NRL head on over to PlayUp. Imagine what you could be buying instead. Set a deposit limit.
Queensland often has the right mix of generational talent, playmaking brilliance and these nuts-and-bolts players that bind them together like glue.
Spudd hitting Kenty right between the eyes!
Despite a poor season by his own high standards, Latrell Mitchell is still a chance to force his way into the NSW team for…
Michael Maguire is saying all the right things about how he wants to guide NSW back to State of Origin supremacy but the inescapable…
Wayde Egan's rise to star hooker status at the Warriors should earn him a place in conversation to play at No.9 for NSW in…
Hilton Cartwright and Joel Paris have powered Western Australia to a five-wicket win over NSW in the one-day cup final, securing a historic third…
