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Opinion
A monster 11-race card has been assembled for Tabcorp Park Melton on Saturday night where the Breeders Crown Series’ warms up, the first getting underway at 6:03 pm Sydney time.
Here’s a preview of the meeting.
Race 1
Emma Stewart has a stranglehold on this race with all the key chances. I think there is a bet to be had here though, a place bet with Rogue Wave. Chris Alford steers and the options for her are either to lead and hand up to Ladies In Red or sit outside Treachery and get the 1/1 via Ladies In Red. $2.50/thereabouts to run top three is a bet for me.
Suggested bet: Rogue Wave to place.
Race 2
Tough Untily should win but no spoils at $1.40. Again going with a place bet with Star Of Timpany. A former Kiwi that made her Australian debut at Ballarat and was good in defeat behind Joanna, who goes around in the first. This girl draws directly behind Tough Untily so she gets the good run through and $3.40 to run top three is more than acceptable.
Suggested bet: Star Of Timpany to place.
Race 3
Looks a race between Keayang Jackie and Maajida. I’m looking for something to finish third and Louisiana Jo can do that. She sat parked outside Keayang Jackie last time out and tired late. This race, she draws Gate 1, directly inside Keayang Jackie, who should lead and in turn give Louisiana Jo the perfect. I can see her holding on for third.
Suggested bet: Louisiana Jo to place.
Race 4
$1.70 for Cruz Bromac to run top three looks an absolute gift. Lochinvar Art is the best pacer in Australia at the moment and despite drawing the second row and wide, he just wins barring bad luck. But I think Cruz Bromac will run very well. He has drawn terribly this prep but finally gets a front row draw. Finds the front and from there Alford has all the options in the world.
Suggested bet: Cruz Bromac ($1.70) to place.
Race 5
The front row is littered with speed so it will be very interesting to see how much work Loorrim Lake does in the run. The best horse in the race, but the draw makes it tricky and at $1.65, I’m happy to bet elsewhere and have landed with Mach Dan.
Group l winner two-back before a comfortable heat winner of this series at Bendigo. He draws the second row and will watch them go hard in front and from there Greg Sugars has options.
Suggested bet: Mach Dan to win.
Race 6
Not really a race I want to get involved in from a betting perspective, but if my arm was twisted, I could have something small a place on Big Black Diamond, who should draw the pole should the emergency come out. He either gets leaders back or three pegs and we saw behind Mach Dan at Menangle he can be very effective when on the pegs doing no work.
Suggested bet: Something small Big Black Diamond to place.
Race 7
Strong semi for the two-year-old boys but it does look perfectly set up for Beyond Delight, who should find the front pretty comfortably and prove too good for a quality field. A lot of time and respect for Bar Room Banta, but not sure he can sit and do work outside Beyond Delight and beat him. That pair look the two.
(Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Suggested bet: No bet.
Race 8
The early battle for the front will be fascinating. I hope Jacks Hawk can hold up early, then hand up to Act Now, and if that eventuates, then Tuppence can sit three back the pegs and from there he can run a place at nearly double figures. His run at Geelong from an identical position was quite good, so he’ll need luck but if that map I predicted pans out that way, he’ll run well.
Suggested bet: Tuppence to place at $8+.
Race 9
I like Sweet Louise here. Chris Alford will drive this girl and I suspect he’ll come out humming in finding the front early, then likely handing up to Amelia Rose. Sweet Louise won her heat via leading and taking a sit, so the scenario has been a successful formula and at $4 vs $1.80, the former does appeal more.
Suggested bet: Sweet Louise to win.
Race 10
The best of the night for me here in the shape of Red Hot Tooth. She can really fly from the mobile when allowed to and despite some speed drawn inside, Red Hot Tooth has the pace to cross from seven and if she does, it’s race over. She tried to do something similar at Maryborough last start but couldn’t and was forced to park in a fast run race. I’m banking on her crossing and leading.
Suggested bet: Red Hot Tooth to win.
Race 11
Miss McGonagall looked a good thing last week and duly saluted. Not a good thing this week, but still think she’s the one to beat with the barrier draw advantage over her main rival in betting, Our Princess Tiffany.
Miss McGonagall should find the front and as she likes to do, roll at a decent tempo, so Our Princess Tiffany, while she’s the best horse ability-wise, will have to do work.
Suggested bet: Miss McGonagall to win.
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