This year the Bulldogs have the right to match any bid for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, widely considered the best player in the draft.
A similar situation arises next year with Collingwood and Nick Daicos, which leads to speculation that the first pick is redundant and can be traded out.
It can be traded out, and it may be worth it, but the points embedded within the pick are essential in matching any bid.
Consider the situation if the Bulldogs had traded Pick 14 this year for picks next year and then required 2400 points to match a bid on Ugle-Hagan. Their other picks this year, 41 54, are worth only 632 points, so they would have taken a deficit of 1768 points into next year’s draft, negating any benefit gained.
In this case the Bulldogs had Collingwood over a barrel and received Picks 26, 33 and 42, worth 1687 points, in return for Pick 14, worth 1161 points.
Let’s consider what might happen if Collingwood managed to trade next year’s first-round pick for Pick 13 this year. Let’s assume Collingwood are able to select appropriate players with Picks 13, 14 and 16 and then need to match a bid for Reef McInnes at 19. They would require 751 points to match, minus the 129 points for Picks 65 and 70. So they would carry a deficit of 622 points into 2021.
They might then need another 2400 to match a bid for Nick Daicos, which would wipe them out of the 2021 draft and lead to a deficit carried forward into 2022.
So if Collingwood trade their 2021 first-round pick, they need to be mindful of the points and that any scenario in which they manage three first-round picks plus McInnes and Daicos will lead to a point deficit which extends into 2022.
The concessions given to Gold Coast were generous. They can pre-list players, and it seems they will require only one pick in this year’s draft. This leaves Picks 27 and 37 ripe for another club to pick. Carlton, Geelong and West Coast don’t have picks until well after this, and acquiring Picks 27 and 37 would improve their position markedly.
Essendon have two NGA recruits and, with only Pick 44 in the second and third rounds, will need to go into deficit. Picks 27 and 37 would obviate this need.
My suggestion is that Collingwood offer their 2021 first-round pick to Gold Coast for Picks 27 and 37 in this year’s draft and their second and probably third-round pick in the 2021 draft. Collingwood would avoid a points deficit this year, probably still be able to utilise Pick 37 and probably have enough points to acquire Nick Daicos in 2021.