Opinion
It was a great start to the year last Saturday with our speculator saluting at $20-plus and a couple of other late winners making things even better.
Thanks for your comments – good to see a few of you tracked me down. It’s back to Randwick this week with a few similar patterns and some nice value across the card.
I’ve done form around a sort of middle ground of a Soft 6 track condition, and the usual ten units are in play.
Outlay: Ten units.
Return: 29.2 units.
Outlay: 295 units.
Return: 395.2 units.
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1: No. 7 Dawn Too Good (two units)
I’m hoping lightning can strike twice in the opener. Dawn Too Good has the same Cejay Graham-Gary and John Moore combination as last week’s big winner, Nuclear Summit, and follows a similar sort of formula. He comes into this with okay form at provincial level carrying weight. He will be up close to the lead and carries no weight thanks to the apprentice claim. His distance stats include a five-length win – albeit over donkeys at Bathurst – while both his wins have been on a slow surface.
Race 3: No. 6 River Charge (one unit)
This is a tricky little race with not much between the horses. I think River Charge is overs stepping up in grade after a few nice wins in the bush. Trainer Theresa Bateup is on fire at present and the mile-sting out are both ticks.
(Brett Holburt/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Race 4: No. 10 Dream Circle (one unit)
If the last race was tricky, this one has given me a few headaches – I had seven of the nine runners valued between $8 and $12! I will have a very small play on Dream Circle. He won nicely at big odds last start and might have found his happy place at 1400 metres with give in the track. Starla, St Covet’s Spirit and even Onslaught are all chances. All Time Legend might be a gun, but I’ll risk him at even money.
Race 5: No. 8 Above and Beyond (one unit)
Above and Beyond is a horse that seems to find a bit of trouble – he is prone to missing the kick or getting checked in the straight. He rates highly in this down in weight and is a juicy price. The slow track is fine – he is normally worse than midfield and running on, so the extra trip might be a blessing.
Race 6: No. 11 Pandano (two units)
A few of these are backing up from Big Parade’s nice win the week before Christmas. Pandano meets him three and a half kilos better for that and is ready to peak third-up. Handspun is a worry fresh and I’m wary of Bulletin having his first start in Oz for that dangerous Clark-Waterhouse pairing.
Race 7: No. 3 Spirit Ridge (one unit)
I’m not taken by anything in this one. I think Laure Me In and Spirit Ridge are the ones with the runs on the board and might fight it out. I’m leaning to the Ridge with a good record on soft going, but at under 2:1 I’m not getting overly excited.
Race 8: No. 6 Sacramento (one unit)
After taking Sacramento first-up at an unsuitable distance and him running a nice third, I really have to go again with more running in his legs for this. I’ll get exotic and look to add New Arrangement, Space is Deep and Miss Redoble.
Race 9: No. 6 Dame Kiri (one unit)
Dame Kiri rates on top in the last. She’s in career-best form, winning both starts this prep. She’s adept carrying weight, is consistent and handles all conditions. A few will likely start in my quaddie – Stawb is close to a win, Bowery Breeze won well for me last time and ten and 11 rate well.
Good luck, everyone. Keep the comments coming and stay safe wherever you’re enjoying the racing action.
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